My big 2 in the CES..

Yo!!!

i'll keep it simple......



EARTH AMBER
CLOWENCE HOUSE


end of!!!


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Sweet as Sugar....

In the opener,


....At Ascot's AWESOME King George meeting, there is an UBER hard to solve maiden.....BUT!!!!!



Richard Kingscote ALWAYS ride for T Dascombe, right?....WRONG.......!!!


T Dascome has 16/1 shot CROWLEY'S LAW, whilst stable jockey has opted to jump in the saddle of J G Portman's apparent 50/1 no-hoper......


2:00pm Ascot: MOLLASSES



A tip in itself......




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Easy, Tigress.....

Well Hel-lo...



It's nice to be back (ish) and for my small band of fans, such as me ol' mate Rob Pace, I can ASSURE you the moaning/putting the racing world to rights will start again soon.....


As for tomorrow, looking at stopping that crossbar shaking by opposing a dodgy fav, the dodge is the overbet, non-staying nag "LANGLEY", which opens the race up like the great red sea for my nap, who would be around 6/4 in a "without the fav" market, so the 7/2 on offer looks mightily tasty indeed:


5:00pm Catterick: SILVER TIGERESS (7/2) 3pts win (running profit before this race, +6pts)



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Chase the Hare

Simples,

As a Meerkat once told me.....


A glorious nag I hold V V V close to my punting heart is a GOING!!!!

After winning from an AWFUL draw last time whilst coming from WAY off the pace in a MEGA fast race, this should be the epitome of the ol' candy/baby type scenerio....


205pm Ayr: West Leake Hare (2/1) 4pts win (running profit before this race, 9pts)


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Copenhagen, Probably the Best Tip In the World.....

Well,


After a MORE than healthy 130% R.O.I yesterday with Darwin doing the biz, it's time to go in again with a STAND OUT selection at Reddy-Reddy-Redcar this arvo....


The nag in question is joint top rated on 72, but gets the ALL IMPORTANT 3 year old weight-for-age allowance of a WHOPPING 8lb, so one and all, at a juicy 9/4, it's time for us to.....



440pm VISIT COPENHAGEN (9/4) 4pts win (running profit before this race 13pts)



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Irish Cream...

Shhhhh

only back for a quickie...ooo-er missus!!!



At the Curragh ce soir, two BANGING bets.....DARWIN readily available at around 6/4, who is SOOO in the So You Think mould and could EASILY brush aside the Byron, and FINALLY we get to see ALIVE ALIVE OH in the Oaks after being declared/pulled out a couple of times, and she's in at a tasty 6/1,



so its:

540pm DARWIN 6pts win

615pm ALIVE ALIVE OH 2pts win

2 pts win double


Profit here we bloody well come!!!


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You Do The Maths....

So...

Ol' Jan Smutts flattered to deceive, but ran a solid enough race, as for today, we're of to "sunny" Yarmouth for the opening Maiden, the likely 5/4 fav showed just a basic level of form first time out, and the second fav failed to build on it's third place debut, to once again fill that berth, which all leaves the way clear for Godolphins Exceed and Excess newcomer:


210pm Yarmouth: MATHEMATICS



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Smutty Talk.....

'Ere we go etc, etc etc....



AT LAST .....me ol' mate is being stepped up to a much more realistic 1m7f, and with decent handling from the quite sublime C Beesley (7), so.....ALL ABOARD:


JAN SMUTTS 330pm Catterick, and lob ULTRA tough TARTAN JURA in the f/cast for a bitta extra dough!!!



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Keepin' It Simple....

Well,

It's been a while, running fell races and keeping all at my college in check, so i'll keep this one short but sweet,



3pm Hamilton: SCENTPASTPARADISE


Has over a STONE in hand on official figures and takes a large drop in class, I priced the nag up at 1/2 so am DELIGHTED to see it trading around the 2/1 mark, and why not pop DONE DREAMING in the f/cast to give the syndicate a 1-2.....




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Time To BATT-ER Those Lovely Bookies........

Well,


It's the morning after the day before in the PlacePotter household, the sun is shining, the espresso machine is on, and the good Dr is down the stables giving the horse the once over, all this whilst I watch the replay of yesterdays Temple Stakes on wrap-round...you just GOTTA love a 14/1 MEGA NAP.....hope y'all got on, grab yourselves a Paddy Power a/c which has guaranteed prices for almost EVERY race, so my taking of the 10/1 in the early morning multiplied by 40% and I still got the latter, 'appy days!!!



The day after such a "touch" I normally lay low and wallow in the glory of tipping the almost untippable, BUT, something has caught my eye in the simplest of races at the Curragh, a lil' 28 runner cavalry charge over 6f at 430pm with, wait for it, just the 28 runners.....


The nag in question is Micheal Mulvany's JEMBATT , an oh so gutsy runner up in this last year, has had the benefit (along with last years conqueror Harry Trotter) of a lil' pipe opener in February at Dundalk.  It's not too dissimilar to yesterdays Temple Stakes in so far as if you like the fast finishing Harry Trotter at 10's, you simply HAVE to fancy my lad, who stays 6f V V V well, at a quite frankly LOONY  25's....both nags race regularly over 7f/mile, so this fast fun 6f with all the hustle and bustle of a big sprint plays right into their hands, just check out Harry Trotter's winning run last year, trapped on rail, and when clear...WHOOOOOSH!!!...as for Jembatt in the '12 reunion of the race, he ran the PERFECT race, in behind, kept up to his work by I J Brennan (3), coming through and past beaten horses in the final furlong, only to be well and truly chinned by Trots near the line, but he won "his" race, so i'll take his position in the runners up berth as a strong positive.


I touched on the jockey there, nothing against Mr I J Brennan (3), but the booking of a certain P J Smullen today CERTAINLY catches the eye, and he was on top the last time our lad won, over 7f at the track last August, and he very interestingly was on board when having the aforementioned pipe opener at an unconsidered 20/1, now why would he be on that.........?


If you watch the two races back to back, you can see Brennan nudging along, then he waits, then hetakes the line in the middle of the racecourse leaving the rail run open for Harry trotter and gets chinned, whereas Smullen is the epitome of poetry in motion, just lobbing along until the hypotenuse racing line appears, via the gap between two horses, towards the rail, then it's a case of KICK ON MY SON and all that jazz.


In other news, Justification looks nailed on in the 215pm, VERY unual for the O'Brian camp to a) have a gelding and b) run it as a 5 year old, the advertised 7/2 looks like a license to print cash, and finally, in the 1000 Guineas, Just a Judge looks the STANDOUT "lay of the day" for me, I think we'll look back at the end of the season and see her runners up spot in the English (real) 1000 Guineas as her highlight, the dangers are aplenty, no least the jockey who perpetually arrives later than a booked doctors appointment, the annoying force of nature that is Mr Jamie "i'll hold her up, get her in touble, and get her beat" Spencer, he's not nicknamed Frank Spencer for nowt!!!!  As for equine dangers, the top of the list and my idea of the "good thing" in the race is D Weld's "Big Break"...he thinks the WORLD of her and is already talking about multiple group 1 victories for her, she did nothing but improve last season, going off no bigger than 5/4 in all her 3 runs, which is a message in itself, one of them a group 3 where she DEMOLISHED a field including yesterdays 2000 hero Magician (yes, he was hampered, but simply WOULD NOT HAVE lived with Big Break that day) by a widening 4 or so lengths, she looks a filly of SERIOUS potential, and apart for the Aga Khan's Harasiya, she's the only filly arriving here without a run which means she'll be BOX fresh and ol' Weldy will have her tuned up to the nines!!!!!


Well, time to toddle off for a picnic with the good Dr, looks like someone has opened a section of Marks & Spencers on our kitchen worktop...... but you know what they say, this isn't JUST tipping, it's PLACEPOTTER tipping.......




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OVERPRICED and Goin' Native....

Well,


That time of the year is here once agian, when young whipper-snappers try to claw the sprinting crown away from the grasps of the maturing 4+ year olds, and in tomorrow's Temple Stakes at Haydock it's no different...


One horse, and one horse alone simply SHINES LIKE A BEACON as the Each Way PUNT OF THE SEASON!!!!....The horse in question in good ol' Kingsgate Native, a past winner of this event a couple of years back and proved he retained ALL his speed at the grand old age of 8 last time out when only narrowly failing to pick up Sole Power.  Both these horses are rated almost 120, both previous Group 1 winners, and both simply LOVE Haydock, and especially this race, so if I were to tell you Sole Power is trading at 7/4 and our lad a frankly MASSIVE 11/1, you may be able to start to understand which my betting arm is starting to twitch!!!!!....You are basically getting two chances to land a 4/6 shot with another chance landing a 7/1 winner, i'll take that ANY day!!!


Of course there are dangers, like the unbeaten, super-speedy Reckless Abanden, but this highly rated/regarded nag is only 3, and where there is NO DOUBTING the ability factor, you have to question what he'll find in a low down dirty street fight of a race,which this, nearly always is, and he is only a measly (Bookies, you have embaressed yourselves!) 3/1!!!

So In a nutshell, I can't knock Native out of the frame with a mallet, a previous winner of the race, with a decent finishing kick, drawn well, plenty of fighting qualities and a PROVEN Group 1 performer, and with Shane Kelly on board, has a jockey to suit his "swooping" style just perfectly, and ALL THIS at 11/1?!?!?!.....I'll just reach for my wallet...


Saturdays are made for races like this, and if this old boy wins, it'll be just GR-EIGHT!!!


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Frankie Goes To Good-Golly-Wood.....

Frankie, Frankie, Frankie....



What have you done?



Once the toast of a nation, a housewives favourite, and the go to jockey for many a top trainer, and the mastermind behind the infamous "Frankie 7" at Ascot, now, a cocaine snorting, disrespectful, attention seeking ego maniac of simply EPIC proportions, who is more interested in his restaurants and media appearances (check out his PERFECTLY choreographed interview with Claire Balding about his "drug taking" and "cutting issues"....pull the other one, it's got bells on) than he is in ACTUALLY DOING HIS BLOODY JOB, which is, in simplistic terms, riding horses and trying to win, and as those jobs go, he had the best one in all the equine world.

SUCH is the GARGANTUAN nature of his utter, UTTER disrespect for The Great Sheik and Goldolphin, he ACTUALLY went to ride Camelot in the Arc, in the process, not so much biting the hand that has fed him, and VERY well indeed for YEARS, but pretty much gnawing it to the bone, but hey, he's BIGGER than the game remember, he's the one and only FRANKIE, him of the flying dismount (NEVER liked that) and that oh so cheeky smile, unfortunately, for me, he is, without a shadow of a doubt the single most OVERRATED jockey in the history of flat racing, who, from early in his career has been pretty much spoon fed the creme de la creme of the equine world through Godolphin, and when that dried up, the great Sheik just waited until the end of the 2 year old campaign and purchased the top horses from rival stables for inflated prices (Cape Verdi, i'm looking at you, running a filly in the derby, do me a favour!!!) but still, STILL this wasn't enough for ol' Lanfranco.


A winner of over 500 group races worldwide, with what appeared to be an infinite, unquenchable thirst for success, the world was both at his feet, and indeed his oyster, so why, WHY did he, in one fell swoop TOTALLY alienate his boss, and the SINGLE most powerful man in racing, and start jamming charlie up his hooter?!?!?!?

When France Gallop banned him for 6 months back in November 2012 I was hoping, praying, BEGGING that he would call it a day, and let the dying, embarrassing pantomime come to a respectful close, but no, NO SIR-EEEEE.....in a whirlwind of inteviews, P.R bullshit, grins, and a carefully crafted hanging bottom lip...BOOM!!!...the twat is BACK!!!

His Lawyer (now, THERE'S a job) has stated on the record, that in addition to admitting taking cocaine he:

"also accepts that he has let down the sport he loves and all those associated with it, as well as the wider public"

Well woopy-fucking-doo-shit for him, you can put a cat in the oven but it don't make it a biscuit.....


I could go on and on and on and ON about my utter, UTTER DISDAIN for the ickle poison dwarf, but I fear I'd run out of breath and capitulate before my opinions were fully out.

He was meant to be returning, all guns blazing, fanfare 'n' all to Leicester this evening in the 650pm, but alas, France Gallop have put paid top that, for a few days at least (but yet his agent Ray Cochrene, was still booking him rides.........go figure)

The winner of his "return race" was called "Prime Exhibit", which just COULDN'T be more apt, because Lanfranco Dettori is INDEED a prime exhibit, but unfortunately for racing, one of a grovelling, whining, spoilt child, who once had everything, lost the LOT and now believes he deserves to have it all back, just because he's had an enforced 6 month holiday, lucky he wasn't caught on a bike in the Alps, he'd be banned for life.....




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Haggas, Beschizza, and The Caped Crusader

Handicaps,


Each Way 1/4 odds, 1-2, using this theory, todays Victoria Cup at Ascot shoud be 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8!!!!!...But, alas, it's not, usual "first four" places, UNLESS, like the good Dr, aka my better half, you have a Paddy Power account, you can nick an extra place, so with all this being said, I believe I have unearthed a pretty tasty selection for the 29 runner lottery to end all lotteries, IMPOSSIBLE I collectively hear you cry, but remember Levitate, advised at 33/1, scorched home a well backed 20/1 chance?...no?!?!?!?...well you best scroll back and read my Lincoln blog, like candy from a baby!!!

Not dissimilar to the Lincoln, todays race is all about the weaving form and standing by your opinions, and not, repeat NOT being swayed by "unlucky in running" or "should come on for the run" selections, but sticking by my tried and tested (and VERY profitable) route of form reading, and having a PhD in THE BLEEDING OBVIOUS!!!!

Like when Sacre lined up against Cue Card and all and sundry were trying to find chinks in the long black aeroplanes impregnable armour, as for me, I was just STARING longingly at the early price offered odds of 1/3, that's a 30% ROI for 5 minutes "work", in my book he was at LEAST a 1/10 shot, if not shorter, and we ALL know how the DE-MO-LI-TION, oh sorry, "race" went......SOOOO obvious was the victory beforehand, but once the pundits have removed nearly ALL of their collective splinters from their arses from the pre-race fence sitting (just to cover themselves so THEY could be the one who said "yeah, yeah, I KNEW the distance would catch him out, NEVER thought he'd stay 2m 4f) they all jumped, nay CARTWHEELED onto the "he was NEVER in danger" bandwagon with such veiled hypocrisy, it nearly put me off my late lunch, if that's the case Mr.Pundit, have £10,000-£3,000, and show me your betting slip, then, you never know, I may show you a lil' respect......if you can show me an investor/bank who can match that 30% return, they can have the keys to my dusty ol' piggy bank!!!

So with the bleeding obvious well and truly covered, let me introduce you to Cape Classic, a rapidly improving 5 year old, by Cape Cross, from that hotbed yard of the classy handicapper, Mr William Haggas.....I STILL to this day remember his ULTRA tough, front running street fighter, Yeast, making all at Leicester in 200 under a masterful front running ride from Spencer (back in the day when he could ride and NOT think EVERY BLOODY HORSE he's on is fitted pre-race with an exocet missile neatly hidden up its jacksie, which, he inevitably FORGETS to switch on!!!!).......Sorry, getting away from the point, yes there IS a point.....to be considered pattern/group class, or to be handicapped out of this, you need a rating of 100+, and our lad is teetering JUST below that on 97/98, ALL the buzz has been for Ed McMahon's Tartiflette, BUT if you fancy that nag at 11/1, you simply MUST fancy my tip at 16/1.....they met in a competitive Haydock handicap in the back end of April, with Tartiflette victorious, and our lad a closing 3rd, that day, the betting was 7/2 Fav our lad, and 10/1 The "Tart" receiving a full 8lbs.  They reoppose this afternoon on revised terms with our lad only having to give the Tart 3lbs, so that's us 5lb's better off, for a 1 3/4 length defeat, I'll take that!!!...Throw into the mix we are drawn middle in stall 16, and the Tart low in 7, meaning Adam Beschizza can go where the pace is, whereas the Tart is stuck, unless he uses up a LOT of gas crossing over, or on the other hand, he could be where the pace is, in which case our lad can just tack over, but reading the race, the pace looks like coming from the high stalls Highland Colori, Loving Spirit and Born to Surprise all drawn in the 20's.


With a plethora of front runners and nearly as many hold up horses drawn both low and high, we have a nag that is neither, can sit just off the pace, tack over to the side which has the pace, and kick on at the distance in a "catch me if you can" kinda way, I believe this fella has potential black type in him, and after running today he'll most likely be rated in the 100+ bracket, giving Haggas another gladiator to go to war with over the summer, it's been a full 13 years since Yeast, but with Cape Classic, he may just have a tool to rise to the occasion......



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I'll Approach This Dawn With The Upmost PLEASURE......

So,


Here we are again, 2000 Guineas day, with reputations aplenty, form in the book and enough talking up of PAINFULLY  mediocre nags to last us a lifetime, all that being said, it looks on paper to be an absolute CRACKERJACK of a contest....


Few things make my usually calm blood BOIL the the point of erupting than the ol' "this nag is quite possibly the BEST i've EVER trained" gang, who BLEAT on and on and ON AND ON until it gets beat, then the P.R train/excuse crew kick into overdrive, that's why I have perpetual respect for Geraghty, who thought long, and hard, along with Nicky Henderson, if Sacre, was indeed the best either had EVER had the fortune to be associated with, Nicky 'cos of the AWESOME fire-power he has now and has had previously, and Bazza quite simply because of the quite brilliant Moscow Flyer who was around in the golden age of 2 mile chasers, if Sacre had them lot to run against/routinely defeat I have NO DOUBTS he'd be rated 215p before his 9th birthday, but that's one for another day......


So when I see the Post this morning with R Hughes plaster all over the front page stating:


"This is the best horse i've sat on and I think he'll win"


Not the tip laced with a huge amount of incite you'll ever get, of what is, on paper, a 2 horse pantomime, but he's more than entitled to his opinion, but that's where my problem lies, has he SUCH a short memory to forget:


HARBOUR WATCH: (2011)

"I think he could be a superstar, and is quite possibley the best i've sat on"

 Races 3 times then never raced again.

CANFORD CLIFFS: (2009-2011)

"An absolute star, he kills his opponents with his turn of foot, the best i've EVER ridden"

Yeah, until he met Frankel and got DEMOLISHED by a cosy 5 lenghs, the excuses POURED out after, but here are the facts:

Ratings:

127 Canford Cliffs
147 Frankel


So if the nags he keeps referring to are rated less than an average derby winner as "the best he's ever ridden" he could easily keep repeating this year after year, after BLOODY year.

(For the record, Canford Cliffs would MURDER Harbour Watch AND Toronado in a race, *simples*)


In todays 2000 Guineas you have to, from a rational punting point of view side with physical recent form, if so you are ALL OVER Toronado at 2/1, with his rating climbing from 114 at the end of last season, to a not to lofty 121 now after his Craven victory.....

OR....


If you're like me, a figures man, you just CANNOT and WILL NOT hear of defeat for the MIGHTY Dawn Approach, already a MULTIPLE Group winner including a pair at the highest level in the Dewhurst and the National Stakes, with a nice lil' Group 2 Coventry Stakes in there just for good measure, compare this to Toronado's 2 small field Group2/3 wins and you can see why my pulse is starting the beat that little bit faster.  Dawn Approach ended last season as the top rated Juvenile in Europe on 124, so he is STILL rated above Toronado, even without the so called "advantage" of a recent run, but be sure as eggs is eggs he will be trained to the NANOSECOND by J S Bolger to be FIRING on his 2013 debut.

The facts are there for all to see, Dawn Approach is rated higher, was rated a FULL 7lb higher at the end of last season, is a DUEL Group 1 winner, has been fav for the 2000 Guineas since, well, the beginning of time, is entered up SOLELY in 1m races for it's next 3 outings, whereas Toranado is stepping up in trip almost straight after, making Dawn Approach a MUCH more attractive Guineas proposition, and notwithstanding ANY of this, Godolphin purchased him, and decided against purchasing EITHER Olympic Glory OR Toronado, and that Sheik aint usually far off the mark.  So the following pricing up of the market leaves me SO CONFUSED my head hurts, firstly, my tissue:

4/6 Dawn Approach
7/2 Toronado

The ACTUAL Prices:

7/4 Dawn Approach
2/1 Toronado


So, all this being said, if Dawn Approach has improved 7lb-10lb over the winter from 2-3 as he is more than entitled to do, and strengthened up a bit, I see the race going like this, not much happens until the 2 pole where Toronado is cruising, hits the 1 pole, then he lengthens and kicks on with a devastating turn of foot to put clear daylight between himself and the rest of the field, EXCEPT Dawn Approach, who will be on his quarters and gallop right by.  Toronado could well be stuck with the Excelebration mark of being AWESOME but having Frankel in his way EVERY BLOODY TIME, but hey, at least it'll be good for racing, and if all goes to pot for Hughes, and Toronado just isn't up to it, he should have PER-LENTY of time to conjure up an excuse whilst he strolls around Hannon's yard looking at the early season 2 year olds thinking to himself:


"Hmmmmm, which one of you lil' beauties shall I pick out to be my new next BIG thing for NEXT years Guineas?!?!?!?"


I can categorically say, that the BEST thing Richard Hughes has EVER sat on, and he does it with CONSUMMATE ease, is that old chestnut, THE FENCE!!!!



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You Simply HAVE TO Back Tara-THIS!!!

Right,


Short 'n' sweet as just jumping in the ol' 4x4 away from the leafy cottage to Hunter Chase evening at Chelenham, I KNOW it's a LOOOONG time to wait for the best bet of the day....BUT........


TARANIS is rated 150, and a SUPERSTAR (as well as a DUEL Grade 1 winner) in his pomp for P Nicholls, which is between 13lb and STONES ahead of the rest in the finale at 8:20pm, an EASY winner of the £57k Argento chase only a a couple of years back, this would resemble the ultimate of "egg 'n' spoon" races if he is anywhere, and I mean ANYWHERE near his best, he showed his well-being with a THUMPING 13 length verdict 5 weeks ago at Barbury, yes there is the small matter of the admirable Rebel Du Marquis, but all I see is that 13lb lower rated market rival making the market for us, and to add to our confidence our lad is getting between 1lb-13lb form 8 of the 11 rivals, so when I tell you he is currently trading as SECOND fav, at a quite ASTONISHING 100/30 (should be 11/10 in my book) I hope you can begin to understand why i'm starting to think this baby's candy needs WELL AND TRULY stealing!!!!!!



TOOT! TOOT!...the good Doctor is calling from the motor, time to go, but remember, good things come to those who wait, and TARANIS has NO weight at all......




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Drugs, Shrugs, Classics and Dramatics.......

Well, well, well.....


My silence has I guess spoken volumes, "no blog for a WHOLE WEEK?!?!?!...HAS HE ACTUALLY THROWN IN THE TOWEL?!?!?!?!".........not a bit of it, was just computing, or at least attempting to compute the, ahem "news" from the last handful of days that took us all on a quite the journey,  from an "under performing" (the pundits view, NOT mine!) performance by Sacre in Ireland, to a drug/doping/call it what you will investigation of three-decade veteran, Mr G Bulter, via perpetual classic opinions/nonsense (just admit Dawn Approach is a stone clear and be done with it!), McCoy's 18th straight title, ("you won't have it all your own way next season A.P, J Maguire is coming to get ya"...YEAH RIGHT, the bookies ahem, TOTALLY agree, McCoy 1/7 fav, nuff said!!!) oh, and the small matter of Godolphin having a drug problem or two of their very own.


It's a wafer thin line between that ol' "no such thing as bad publicity" chestnut, and, well, what we've had to endure in the last 10 days in racing, the sport I love so dearly.  I used to be quite the cycling fan/freak, but since that cheating Texan excuse for a man "came clean", or " GOT F*@KING CAUGHT as I more accurately like to put it, I have vowed NEVER to watch le Tour again, this coupled with the fact that as long as that perpetual third person speaking POISON DWARF of a runt, Chris Wilder is in charge of, what was, for 30 years the SINGLE most important thing in my life, Oxford United, my season ticket will remain posted back to the Kassam Stadium, and my shirt, firmly on the hanger in my closet, I guess what i'm trying to say is, i've lost/given up enough, MORE than enough pleasures in my life thus far, and I DO NOT want to get all disillusioned and make the sport of kings another, not today, not tomorrow, not EVER!!!!


I remember as clear as day, the K Fallon "Ballinger Ridge" case (seriously, google the race, if it wasn't SOOOO funny, it'll be painful) , where NOT ONLY did he stop the horse with an ARROGANT level of THE BLEEDING OBVIOUS, NOT ONLY did he tell all with ears that J Osbourne's 4/5 fav "Rye" would win (the horse he let, erm "catch up") but he revealed IT ALL IN A BLOODY UNDERCOVER REPORT IN THE NEWS OF THE WORLD!!!!!....But somehow, lord knows why, all of this vacuum packed, mastic sealed, 100% conclusive evidence just wasn't enough, here is a jockey that has held all the top racing jobs and fucked up EVERY LAST ONE, stable jockey to Sir Henry Cecil, left under a confusing cloud, but the choice of "bed partners" is the widespread opinion of why.....stable jockey to Sir Micheal Stoute, when most of Sir Mikes top owner RUFUSED to use Fallon, he got the boot, next the cocaine snorting chancer landed the job of jobs as Ballydoyle top lad, as stable jockey to the mighty A O'Brien, but got caught for having Class A in his system not once, BUT TWICE in France in the space of just over a year, firstly getting caught/banned, then coming back , and low and behold, getting tested positive just SIX MONTHS later, all of which, led to a third demise with a top yard in little over a decade, all of this makes me question my love of racing, am I blind? Am I naive? Or worse of all, AM I BOTH?!?!?!...talk about not seeing the wood for the trees, thanks to coke snorting weasel like Fallon, I cannie even find the bleeding forest.....


That's just one, a stand alone single case of what damage is being done to racing on an almost monthly basis, the phrase "this has rocked the world of racing" has kinda lost it's impetus, am I the only one, and I mean the ONLY BLOODY ONE who thinks these multi-gazillionaire owners/trainers don't have a spare £100,000 a year to pay a lawyer/veterinary specialist to make sure the whole "doping/didn't know that drug was illegal" thing doesn't happen?!?!?!...or is the awful truth, what we have been dreading hearing, that it's actually rife in racing, just cover up after bribe after backhander after favour after tip-off, and "faces" such as Gerard Butler and most notably Mohammed Al Zarooni (I will not comment on this case to more facts have made themselves known) have just been hung out to dry like the weekend washing in a vain attempt the half-heartedly create the asthetics of the whole "we're cleaning up racing, one crook at a time", where the REAL problem lies deeper, MUCH deeper than we EVER dared to question.

I just hope and pray Paul Bittar "grows a pair" and that this is ACTUALLY the beginning of a major clean up in the sport I love, no chequebook TOO BIG to make them above the law, no reputation to tall not to be cut down in an INSTANT...right is right, wrong is wrong, the sport is continuing to lose further and further sight of this on a daily basis.


If all else fails I s'pose we can always call on the MASTER of P.R/Spin to get us out of this mess....what's that you say?...Max Clifford has been ARRESSED!?!?!?!?!?!.....racing is not on the verge of being toast, more like Satan's Croutons.......



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Nothing Scripted About This Post.....

Jamie, Jamie, Jamie.....

Today, for once, for racing, for ME (and the GAZILLIONS of frustrated punters up and down the country) can you PUR-LEASE have your "riding head" on in time for the 4:30pm at Wolves, 'cos........


I GOT A HOOOOOORSE!!!!!!!!!


At first glance the race looks ultra competitive/VERY confusing, but once you begin to peel the onion, things start to clear like a nice pint of ale.  You can, as with a lot of this low grade stuff, discount the bottom half in the betting, so let concentrate on the top 4:


MIA'S BOY:

Indeed is top rated, but this is more for honour in defeat rather than actual victories, his last win came in October '11 when he SCRAPED home over 7f off a mark of 97, and you have to go back 3 YEARS to fin a CD success when he was technically racing off only 67, over TWO STONES lower, seriously not for me.

ELUSIVE HAWK:

Just MADNESS my fave AW horse in training is even entered, AWESOME in his grade over 6f/7f at a push, but only CD try resulted in a sulky almost last, he doesn't stay, and DEFO NOT in this class of race, that's all you need to know.

KINGSCROFT:

NEVER won beyond  7f, and never threatened to do so, ran over CD last time out, going off at 7/2, was obviously fancied, but race comments like the following, DO NOT inspire confidence:

"tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong"

He will NOT "come on for the run" nor "improve for the run" 'cos he is out of the fittest of ALL stables, Mr M Johnson, so will be as fit as a butchers dog each and every race, he was top rated 89 in that contest, and got soundly beaten by nags rated 80 and 84, he, again, DOESN'T stay, pure and simple.

***********************************************

Which brings us nicely onto my idea of the 6/4 market leader (his price on my tissue, but he's a quite frankly CRAAAAZY 11/2 in a place....SO GET ON!!!) and BY FAR the most interesting runner and likely winner.....

POSTSCRIPT:

A DUEL CD winner, off for 206 days, who has alternated between slaughtering opponents in ultra competitive Sandown/Haydock handicaps with lacklustre runs in valuable, HUGE field £100k and £47k races, if this pattern continues, he'll hose in today.  As I have already mentioned, the race is choc-a-bloc FULL of non-stayers, and the bottom 3/4 rags will ensure a fast, even pace, I can see our lad, who simply LOVES to dominate small fields late on over this CD, at the furlong pole, tucked in behind Kingscroft, Mia's Boy, and an already weakening Elusive Hawk under a MOTIONLESS J Spencer, just READY to push the button.  I must admit, i'm NOT Spence's biggest fan, i'd go as far as to say I often don't back a selection PURLY 'cos he is on-board, those of you with longer memories will remember the ABSOLUTE HORROR rides he used to give to that SUPER MARE Soviet Song, my favorite being in the 2006 Falmouth, when she was sent off a RED HOT 6/5 fav:

"held up in rear, effort over 1f out, never on terms"

In the process, managing to make her a beaten fav in 3 of his 4 chances on-board with his "don't worry, i'll make up the ground" frustrating style....but TODAY, that's exactly what i'm after, Spencer having our lad, out of trouble, and nice 'n' settled, tucked in out the back, ready to pick up the inevitable pieces of the non-stayers at the furlong pole, and pulling away up the straight to win "a shade cheekily"....


In conclusion, unless one of the rags turns out to be a tarter, The Hawk grows another couple of legs/sets of lungs, Kingscroft finds 2f worth of stamina in the last fortnight or Mia's Boy decides today IS FINALLY the day he "wants" to win, this contest looks an open and shut case of EPIC proportions, my lad TRULY stays, the rest don't, and the fact he hasn't run for 200+ days means we're getting a nice price.

Who would you back over 1000 metres?  A race fit Usain Bolt, or Mo Farah returning from a well earned holiday....?

Me Too, Cue the Mobot.......



Be Lucky!!!



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Monsieur CAN-dou.....

So...

Tomorrows meeting at Ayr has a touch of the "after the Lord Mayor's Show"  about it, now we have both Cheltenham and Aintree safely tucked under our belts, and the emerald glow and lure of the BIG pots in Punchestown only days away.......All this being said, there is a CRACKERJACK of a Scottish National on the cards with SOOOOO much "mug money" spread far and wide on horses over the top and not recovered from Cheltenham/Aintree.

For me, Auroras Encore has FAR too much weight, Big Occasion has had his day and like a lot of improving Pipe horses in now on the downgrade, it's a touch strange T Scudamore can do 10-10 but has chosen to ride the stables 20/1 outsider Problema Tic rather than the 8/1 2nd fav.......anyway, moving on, Our Mick, Godsmejudge and River D'Estruval most likely left there best races at Cheltenham, Neptune Equester is from the gambling stable of a certain B Ellison, so is most likely not value at 16/1, and Bradley simply isn't good enough along with Nuts n Bolts, which leads me with my 3 against the field:


MONSIEUR CADOU Generally 14/1 (Paddy Power E/W 1-2-3-4-5) ***NAP***

Whilst many of the protagonists have neen wetting there noses at major festivals, our lad has been quietly stepped up to 3m4f for a series of 4 prep races by master distance trainer T George, with P Brennan perfecting his softly-softly catchy-monkey tactics.  First up he was sent off 9/4 jolly  at Stratford in November, anchored at the back and was making stylish headway when coming to grief at the 14th, next up later that month at Haydock he made no such mistake, making what is now becoming his trademark "push" from the 16th fence, he dazzled the field and landed the spoils.  He then had a nice break over christmas, avoiding the often untraceable ground to turn up once again, over 3m4f at Lingfield where he caught a couple of "tarters" in Emperors Choice and a then BANG in form Big Occasion, but still made his move at the 16th and finished a creditable 3rd.   Any thoughts or doubts about him not holding his form and/or his capability to run off a short break were well and truly dismissed back at Haydock in March, where once again he made his move at the 16th and pulled away for a very professional victory.  He has never been over this far, in fact 4m+ is a full 4f+ further than he's ever been before, BUT, the way PJ rides him, will ensure he has the best possible chance of getting the trip, and could EASILY come swinging along on the bridle 3f out and go past weight laden, and over the top horses, remember this lad is indeed only rated 126, but subsequently is only carrying 10-4...a full 22lbs off top weight, and as form students know, you can give a stone to a horse in a mile race, but the longer you go, the MORE the weight tells, and our lad has a weight of the feather variety.....expect him anchored at the back, minding his own business, and coming through late on, for me, he's a 8/1 shot, so value it MUST be at 14's....and you're doubling you're stake if the nag is placed.....LUMP ON!!!!


ALWAYS RIGHT Generally 11/1

Thought good enough to only go off 25/1 in last years Aintree showpiece, and was going well until blundering and unseating at The Chair, the 11 y/o advertised his well being with a gutsy win over an inadequate trip last time, and canny J Wade (who also oens the nag) doesn't suffer fools lightly and keep horses in training for the sake of it, an ew punt also advised.


RIGADIN DE BEAUCHEUNE Generally 20/1

Almost the forgotten horse of the race, the fact he wasn't right and pulled up over an inadequate trip latest only improves his price, sandwiched between two narrow defeats to the G Moore MEGA  improver was the most gutsy of victories over 3m5f (one of the few in the field with proven stamina) in the Betfair Chase, where he battled back offering that a step up in trip would offer no dangers, once again ew punt is the call.



Of course, pop all 3 in a cfc/ctc as we SOOOO nearly pulled off in the Lincoln.



So, that's it, with the afternoon looking sunny, and my armchair looking comfy, roll on 350pm tomorrow so I can Dou-Dou-Dou the conga when Monsieur breezes in!!!!!



Be Lucky!!!!


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I Wonder About Down Under......

So....


***BREAKING NEWS*** (Last week, the week before, the week before that, etc, etc,etc)


Black Caviar is coming back to Ascot with overly bullish Peter Moody to take not one, but maybe TWO sprint prizes then off to see Frankel for a bit of how's ya father, all this is set in stone, 'cos after Luke Nolan "mistook the winning post" at Ascot last year, (I saw it as being WAY to cocky against MUCH better horses than he's used too and nearly getting collared) The wonder from down under has "unfinished business" and wants to show Europe/The WORLD "the REAL Black Caviar" in our own back yard.....


***BREAKING NEWS*** (Part 2, just a few days later)


From out of nowhere, Black Caviar is not only retired, but retired TODAY with NO INTENTION of coming to Ascot, and not only this, but swerving Frankel to go to an Aussie stallion first....I just CANNOT get my head around this, the ONLY explanation I can rumble together in my tiny little brain is that this is Peter Moody's way of sticking two fingers up to us pommies.....'cos from a strictly business point of view, SURLY he should be advising the owners to meet Frankel at ALL COSTS 'cos it's a god given LICENSE to print money.....


The way Peter Moody has spoken has changed in the past week, from all this "unfinished business" malarkey to "i'm just happy we got her back from the brink" blah blah blah....am I the ONLY one who thinks that he just wanted the long standing group one winning record (14) of Kingston Town all to him/herself? Or am I just thinking too much....?

Moody was always slightly cheesed off by the scrambling manner of his wondermare's minimal victory margin at Ascot at odds of 1/6, so you can only imagine if Caviar was 100% sound, she would be going for another date with her Maj, I can only assume she is NOT 100%, dare I say INJURED!?!?!?!? She is reportedly "better than ever" after her 3 egg 'n' spoon wins since last year, so I for one don't buy the "go out when she is fully fit and at the top of her game" bollocks....if she REALLY was at the top of her game, and if she REALLY was fully fit, she'd be at Ascot already, I think FAR TOO MUCH emphasis is placed on "unbeaten" horses, and retiring unbeaten, as it demands a pretty penny in the sales ring, but this being said, SURLY a  date with Frankel, even if Caviar LOST (which I truly believe she would have) at Ascot, would pay handsomely.


I guess i've just got used to the brutal honesty of Sir Henry Cecil and his expert handling of both horse and punters alike during Frankel's career, raising concerns and dispelling myths , but always with a glint in his eye, so when I see a childish trainer playing a game of "no, no, NO!!!..you CANNOT see our horse anymore", even though for the last 11 months he has been coming, I guess I just begin to boil......

A constructive reason has NOT been given, just a melange of management gobbledygook to make the admirers purr, and the inquisitive question, don't get me wrong i'm patriotic, but I did, have, and always will admire the wondermare, but the main players in question deciding if, and indeed WHEN this love affair must end, seem either woefully out of touch, or incredibility dishonest, either way it just aint cricket, and let's face it, the Aussie's kinda suck at that too!

So, alas, Frankel x Black Caviar may have to wait, or may never even happen, i'm just happy and content I got to see them both at their collective peak, not meeting on the racecourse was upsetting but deal-with-able, but not meeting in retirement to continue the dream, well, that's a total travesty, I think in recent times we have lost touch/sight of who/what the REALLY important aspects are, NOT Sir Henry or Moody, NOT Juddmonte Farms, NOT Luke Noaln or Tom Queally, but those lovely, powerful, sublime creatures that, at will, blow the rest of their species out of the water without turning a hair.....THIS is something I, for one will never, EVER lose sight of......



Be Lucky!!!



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Frankel-Stein..........

So.....


Just HOW MUCH is so called "perfection" actual worth?....£1,000,000...£2,000,000...£5,000,000......?!?!?!...I have the feeling in a year or two we will find out...


The MIGHTY, majestic, unbeaten wonder horse Frankel, is due to be, "entwined" with a certain Black Caviar, only after she has popped over via a 13,000 mile plane trip in that achingly cool compression suit, won the Kings Stand, THEN the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot, in the process notching up her 26th and 27th consecutive victory.  The CRAZY talk last year of a possible "Match Race" between them was as ludicrous as it was unlikely, Frankel, at the age of 4 was FULLY effective from 1m-1m4f, whilst Caviar was a TRUE 6f horse, so a mythical "match" over the only distance they could have raced over, 7f, would have resulted in Frankel cruising up to Caviars quarters at the furlong poll and putting Caviar to bed like a mother does to her new born, but, alas, we'll never know, but I, for one, am glad, because now, if all goes to plan, the sibling of this partnership coming together will have a Mum and Dad, who would both have retired undefeated, with 42 combined victories, including too many Grade/Group 1's to mention, and over £6,000,000 in prize money.


But what will this newbie be worth?...What the buyer is willing to pay, who will the buyers be?


Ballydoyle (Derrik Smith, M Tabor, J Magnier)

JP McManus (bit out of left field, but would be no suprise)

Qatar Racing (those of the £2.5m Hydrogen purchase)

Godolphin (Well, if he wants, the ruler of Dubai NEVER loses, and has been looking for a new Dubai Millennium since 2000)

or the most likely of all....


Judmonte Farms (Khalid Abdula, both Frankel AND Dancing Brave's owner)



But with all this supposed potential comes SERIOUS risks.....


HYDROGEN

Purchased by new boys on the block, Qatar Racing, for a whopping £2,500,000, has sustained an injury, and Peter CH has gone on the record stating that the nag "won't be out 'til the back end of the season"

LIFFEY DANCER

A Tatterstalls 2,500,000 gns purchase, a record then for a yearling filly, she was sent to Luca Cumani's stables, in the Summer of 2007 she was a fanfare of a horse, but was, alas, retired before reaching the racecourse.

SNAAFI DANCER

Probably the most famous flop in racing history, in 1983,the hammer went down at Keenland at a WHOPPING $10,200,000...not ONLY was the nag SO backward that it never made it out of John Dunlops yard to a racecourse, but ALSO proved to be infertile at stud, the mind both boggles and faints.



ALL this being said, the lil' nag Frankel x Black Caviar could, of course be a world beater, but we have seen it TOO MANY times before with inflated prices paid for the offspring of Dubai Millennium and Sea The Stars (MASSIVELY overrated) in the past when they just turn out to be good, solid performers.  I SERIOUSLY think that the F x BC offspring with reach at LEAST £20,000,000 if not more, which is just CRAZY as there are no guarantees that a) it'll reach the racecourse b) it'll be any good, I was joking with the misses last night saying that it could be a 7 furlong wonder horse, not quick enough for 6f as Frankels side would blunt it's speed, and not enough stamina for 1m as Caviars stamina input wouldn't be sufficient.

I have this horror story all ready in my head, it makes it's debut over 6f, bolts up, wins a Listed/Group 3 race emphatically over the same trip, pulling away at the end, to apparently "dispel and stamina fears", then is put away for the winter as the 1/2 favourite for the 1000/2000 guineas....Guineas day comes, it goes off the  1/4 jolly as is subject of good work reports at home, we are ALL watching, remembering Frankels trailblazing performance in the 2011 2000 Guineas, and they're OFF....it leads, goes clear, just like it's Dad.....gets to the furlong pole...and WAIT...HOLD ON....it's PADDLING...it fades into midfield, it doesn't stay, this is the horrible truth and reality of horse racing, but just "far too taboo" to talk about.


I feel sorry, TRULY sorry for this poor lil' blighter already, it'll have the limelight on him/her SO much it'll have scorched hair....and i'm just waiting for the Pay Per View "live birth" option to pop up on the red button, NOTHING will EVER be good enough, we, as the racing community strive to get things beat, root for the underdogs and chastise the true greats,  always perpetually looking for the faintest crack of pessimism in any great situation, it's human, it's what we do......but wouldn't it be just swell, if for ONCE, this lil' lad is purchased and kept away from the media, this horse is the product of not one but TWO fairy tales, I just hope and pray the fairytale continues......



Be Lucky!!!



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A Morning Whine.....

Lots of this I used to adore, pre-lactose intolerant milkshakes and ice creams, HUGE greasy burgers and infinite pints of ice cold Stella, ALL of which are now all but stopped for by good health and medical reasons, and this morning I FINALLY caved in and added one more to the list, The Morning Line.......


This used to be the Mecca, the Bible, the first, the last, the EVERYTHING for your weekends racing, the one and ONLY "go to" place for insightful, knowledgeable, accurate assessments of the days racing all laced with just a smidgen of cutting, often scathing witty banter, now, it appears, since the vanishing act of Highflyer Productions it has gone down the style over substance route, losing most of it's balls and almost ALL of it's credibility along the way, the people who have *cough* "gone" are sorely missed, yes yes YES, I KNOW Big Mac was a tool of EPIC proportions, but the man has charisma, knowledge, and a kind of battle scarred opinion you can only get when you have been a bankrupt bookie, not once, but twice...a man who nailed, nay SUPERGLUED his opinions to the racing mast week after week after week and NEVER wavered, of course his was OFTEN wrong, but at least he had an opinion, which is more than you can say for most of the Morning Line cast who must have a case of perpetual splinter complaints in their collective rear end for all the fence-sitting they do, they have that horrible, annoying knack (a la Simon Mapletoft) of, between them, covering off/tipping pretty much every nag in the race and then lapping up the plaudits afterwards......example, a 6 horse race, with betting like this, the "chat" would go as follows:

BETTING

1/3  HORSE 1
7/2  HORSE 2
6/1  HORSE 3
12/1 HORSE 4
66/1 HORSE 5
80/1 HORSE 6


"After HORSE 1's 20 length romp in the grade last time it must have serious claims of following up, although HORSE 2 is a consistent mare and could well be on the premises again, both HORSE 3 and HORSE 4 are on the upgrade and it would come as no surprise to see either of them take this rise in grade in their stride, HORSE 5 has dropped 30 lbs since 2011 and is mow on a winnable mark, alongside HORSE 6 who was group class at best, and today could see him go well"

RESULT 1

1st: 1/3  HORSE 1
2nd: 7/2 HORSE 2

"Well it was obvious really, the others were out of their depth and the front two pulled a mile clear, as, on form, they were entitled to"

RESULT 2

1st: 12/1 HORSE 4
2nd 1/3  HORSE 1

"As we said before the race, this horse is on the serious upgrade, and was always in danger of having too many guns for the favourite, the favourite looked to have it all to do at the wights, and so it proved"


This happens on almost EVERY race, it's "base covering" of the HIGHEST order, hedging bets, the currency isn't cash, it's our respect and attention, it' would be infinitely more helpful if the race preview went something like this:

"HORSE 1 should win, and win my some way, beating HORSE 2, as all the others are weighted out of it thus priced accordingly, if HORSE 1 fails to oblige, we should all give up the game!!!"

And THAT'S why I dearly miss Big Mac....

Tanya Stevenson appears to say everything through gritted teeth as if she has to prove her worth, maybe she is just tired from carrying that chip on her shoulder for all the abuse she got from Big Mac in the ring, and is taking out on us, the viewer.  Alice FLUNKIE (or whatever her name is) is a truly AWFUL presenter, stuttering as she is incompetent, if she spent less time GUSHING down the camera lens about Cue Card, Black Caviar et al, whilst ensuring the show goes as BUMPY as humanly possible, all this whilst perpetually buggering up their new "space invader" style touch screen computer, and more on actually doing research and getting her facts straight, she would be mildy more palatable......

Claire Balding is maybe TOO inquisitive, and TOO knowledgeable for the CH4 crowd, often asking questions that we has no clue on, so the jockeys/trainers/owners has NO chance.  At Aintree, the start of the Topham, she was calling for the heads of the jockeys and the starter after the nags wouldn't line up, I think she needs to realise, she's NOT next to the perpetual whining dwarf that is Willie Carson any more, and she doesn't have to be SO MUCH of a try hard....

Graham Cunningham, is opinionated, but prefers to argue with Jim McGrath, who has gone from a Timeform GOD to a caricature of his former self.....and DON'T GET ME STARTED on Mick BLOODY Fitzgerald....the token "ex jockey" on the panel, they would've done a GAZILLION times better keeping "The Greatest" Francome on board, now THERE was a man with integrity...


The one guy I do admire, is the joyful, kindly patronising, factually knowledgeable, often scathing, ALWAYS entertaining Nick Luckhurst, he will often inject his opinions in a conversation which nearly always doesn't involve him with a Paxmen type guile...the man is not only the glue, but the ENTIRE bloody hardware store that is holding this crumbling, former crown jewel of a show intact, just look at his numerous opening LIVE pieces to camera on course at the start of their afternoons coverage and you'll see a true master of his craft.....so when he has a week off and FLUNKIE presents, you can only imagine my sarcastic joy.....



So, there you have it, once my favourite show on the box is fast becoming a shadow of it's former self, trying to be "down wid da kidz" and "move wid tha times" BUT it has replaced a 1970's Ford Escort with a Bugatti Veyron, and, unfortunately kept the same same old, unresponsive, frail, nonathletic driver....


You may agree, you may most likely DISagree, but hey, at least my mast has, and ALWAYS will have my colours WELL and TRULY nailed to it.....



Be Lucky!!!!



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Sacre Bleu!!!!!....The Long Black Aeroplane Is Jetting To Ireland!!!

So....


Has the time, the time I have been waiting, nay PRAYING for, actually, really, FINALLY come where the simply INVINCIBLE Sprinter Sacre is hopping over the Irish Sea (He saw a good stride, and didn't touch a twig) to button the the last remaining lips of the uneducated, knowledge-less, flabbergastingly STUPID pundits/fans who still, yes STILL question the cataclysmic might of the GREATEST National Hunt Specimen of this, of ANY OTHER era?!?!?! (I will save my Sacre v Arkle v Flyingbolt rant for another time)...


Well, SLAP MY ARSE AND CALL ME CHARLIE!!!!!...It most certainly appears to have become a reality, and WHAT a reality, he will be lining up in the Boylesports.com Champion Chase at Punchestown, 5:30pm, Tuesday 23rd April, and I for one (of MILLIONS) simply CANNOT WAIT!!!


Since he began his chasing winning spree at Donny in December 2011 (the only time not ridden by Bazza) he has cruised to nine consecutive victories, by an aggregate of 120 lengths against animals rated up to 172 without ever really coming off the bridle, so why oh why oh WHY are the straw clutchers STILL breathing?!?!?!?  I thought the last of them vanished after the whole "he'll do well to beat 172 rated Cue Card, the best and most impressive Ryanair winner for MANY a year over his OPTIMUM distance"....well, i'll let the race comments for Sacre do the talking on that one:


"tracked leaders on outside, poised to challenge 3 out, led on bit between last 2, clear last, very easily"


That race had to be seen to be believed, the manner of the 4 (and a half) length victory was staggering, Bazza had to admit he was "taking a pull" as they were, and I quote, "not going fast enough"...to quantify that statement, the 3 nags in front who "were not going fast enough were:

172 Rated Cue Card, AWESOME Ryanair Winner
165 Rated Finans Rainbow, 2012 Champion Chase Victor
168 Rated Flemenstar, Widely Regarded As The Fastest Front Runner In The Game


So Basically, it's like me running the 1500 metres Olympic Final, tucked in behind Steve Ovett, Seb Coe and Steve Cram, and on the last lap when things are REALLY tearing up, whispering in their collective ear, "hey guys, i'm kinda full o' beans and running away with myself back 'ere, you couldn't just turn it up a notch, could ya?"

All i'm trying to say is this, YES he'll go off around the 1/8 mark, and YES of course he'll win, and most likely on the mother of all bridles, but the gargantuan gulf between him and his nearest pursuers, who, in their own right are mighty champions, is just infinite, and with nothing to challenge him in Ireland, England, Jupiter, Mars of any other solar system this, or any other year, (the golden crop of 2013 all appear to be hurdlers, and EVEN IF they graduate to chases by 2014/15, Sacre will be 9 by then and EVEN more imposing) i'm almost resigned to defeat in the quest for him to reach a rating of 213 and topple the, in my opinion, grossly (please no rude messages) overrated "Himself", if he had a Denman, or a Kauto, or a Moscow rated in the 190's who he could routinely beat to a pulp, then, and ONLY then would we see his true worth, because the simple fact of the matter is, they have absolutely NO incentive to make him win by half the track, he can just have a gentle school, albeit in Grade One races, and keep racking up the victories, and leave the perpetual rating guesswork up to the handicappers, who, in all honestly, are just as in the dark as we are.


Timeform took the radical step of actually ALTERING previous ratings to accommodate the incomparable beast that is Frankel, so why not Sacre....?  


People forget, Sacre is ONLY 7, he won't even reach his peak (whatever than is) for a good 2-3 years, but sadly, the ACTUAL best of him, I doubt we'll EVER truly see....

Sprinter Sacre, the best horse of LAST year, the best horse of THIS year, the best horse of ANY year.......this Kings throne may NEVER be challenged.....LONG LIVE THE KING!!!!



Be Lucky!!!



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It's Time, It's Time, IT'S JAGA TIME!!!!... (And The End Of The Flight Of The Hawk)

Well Bonjour 'n' all that jazz y'all......


Well just back from my leg-destroying 42,195 metre jaunt around Paris, just the odd 5 hours, 35 minutes and 1 second, "simples", now I both metaphorically AND physically "have the t-shirt", also appear to be REALLY in need all manner of baths/gels/beer etc, so will keep this short....but we don't have a bath, we've run out of gel, and already had a beer, i'll just wait for that Budvar to kick in I guess....


I was SPOT on saying Seabass and even more so ON HIS OWN (just farcically overrated) were "dogs" and should be laid to HIGH HEAVEN on the "fair" for a place, I hope you filled you boots, and in my opinion the best horses in the National finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, and if AP would have plumpted (if Jonjo would of allowed it, of course) for Teaforthree I truly believe he would have won, anyhow, National moanings at another date, oh, and Mr Handicapper, just bung Sacre up to 195p, there's a good lad, you KNOW deep down he's rated 200+, what more does he have to do, juggle whilst jumping fences, blindfolded, backwards, on one leg?!?!?!?....which, to be fair he probably could!!!



Just the one recommendation tomorrow, in the Southwell opener:  OPPOSING M Johnson 2 y/o debutants at Southwell has been very profitable for me in the past, but rather than laying Split Rock at around 11/10, i'll be backing the PERFECTLY DRAWN (stall 5, against the rail) Richard Fahey first-time-outer, JAGA TIME by that lovely nag, Compton Place, a real speedster and 5f/6f specialist and European Champion 3 y/o sprinter in the 90's for James Toller, who not only won over 5f on debut, but was only out of the first 2 once in it's open 8 runs, he has been the subject of favourable reports, and when his sire's report looks like this, 9/4 starts to look MIGHTY BIG indeed:

"COMPTON PLACE SIRE COMMENT: smart 2yo, later top-class sprinter, good record with sprint 2yos, some smart, progeny progress well"

I fully appreciate Johnson nag is by Shamardal, and is entitled to be classy, but that million quid making win machine (6 from 7 lifetime) won a French Derby over 1m 3f and was best on soft, 6f/7f and beyond, eeven from debut, so I reckon we've got him COOKED!!!!! I reckon Jaga Time can collar the obvious front running Fanning mount inside the distance and pull away, with maybe Claudia Octavia running on for the forecast spot, for a bit of fun, lay Split Rock at 1.06 (1/16)  for a place, laying a £320 bet would only cos you a score, but JAGA TIME at 9/4 (3.45 on the Fair atm) is the call, nay BELLOW!!!!


Before I forget, if you can get a sniff on the 12/1 "Revolutionary" for the Kentucky Derby on May 4th, please do, jockey/trainer Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher "simply cannot wait and are more excited than ever", and they've had so decent tools in the past, ew 1/5 1-2-3 most bookies, boots, fill etc etc....


AND...friend of the blog, the MIGHTY Elusive Hawk is going into battle once more tomorrow, dropping into a seller for the first time at 3pm, it's all  but a two horse race with our lad 9lb wrong at the weights, but  D Bates (5) reduces that to just 4, the hawk is 8/11, Hamoody 6/4, any price ya like the placepot busting duo of outsiders, he owes us nothing, but, at the prices, tomorrow I think i'll let my head rule my heart and call for a MAXIMUM bet on Hamoody, who is in cracking form himself, and as I said, 4lb well in and The Hawk has to defy YET ANOTHER career high mark....


Time for me and the missus to tuck into our "curry in a hurry", and they deliver all the way to our leafy humble abode, go figure.....


Don't forget to set your timepieces tomorrow, 'cos at the strike of 2pm. it will most definitely be..............JAGA TIME!!!!!!!!!! (and at 3pm The Hawk will fly no more......)



Be Lucky!!!


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Get Up and Go Go GO!!!!!

This is most likely the last blog 'til early next week as my pasta filled insides are Paris bound via the Eurostar at ridiculous o'clock in the morning, here's hoping some lovely punter bungs the national on Youtube so me and the missus can watch it in the hotel room tomoz....


Today at Aintree was all about both cementing, and rebuilding reputations, MY Tent Or Yours looked simply awesome, sauntering home 16 lengths clear from his  147 rated stable-mate, Forgotten Voice, still only 6, and already rated 158, My Tent certainly can mix it next year with the golden age of new hurdlers.  It was a case of "this is what I can do on the right ground" for Dynaste, who disposed of  the opposition in a clinical manner, beating the non-staying, glass bridle nag Third Intention by half a dozen lengths.  As for Sacre, he was just at his AWESOME best, 5 months ago I hailed him better than Kauto and said he could win over 2m, 2m4f. 3m and in time the Gold Cup trip of 3m2f, to say I got *cough* "laughed at* would be an understatement, but it fills me with a warm dose of "I told you so" to see him DESTROY a race fit, 170 rated Cue Card with a disdain rarely seen in Grade 1 chases, he was never out of second gear, lord know just HOW MANY gears the Long Black Aeroplane has, but, alas, I guess we'll never know, I STILL maintain, as in earlier blog, he is the ULTIMATE King George horse, a flat, fast 3 miles would see him win by 40 lengths if the mood takes him, and he is a MASSIVE 4/1 with Paddy Power for the Boxing Day spectacular, which simply HAS TO BE THE BET OF THIS OR ANY OTHER CENTURY, if you can get non-runner, no bet, LUMP ON!!!

Just ask yourself, really, which of these nags below can get him off the bridle?..not "outstay" him,as they'll be SO FAR behind their stamina won't come into it, Sacre's an 5/4 shot AT BEST in my opinion:

Sprinter Sacre

4/1

 Simonsig

6/1

 Dynaste

6/1

 Silviniaco Conti

6/1

 Long Run

7/1

 Cue Card

10/1

 Sir Des Champs

16/1

 Benefficient

20/1

 The Giant Bolster

20/1

 Champion Court

25/1

 Captain Chris

25/1

 Captain Conan

25/1

• Each Way Odds » 1/4 Places 1,2,3 
  My advised maximum each way punt at 28/1 Walkon fared well, when Alan Kings brave grey, HEAVILY gambled on course form 28/1 > 16/1 only just failed to peg back Triolo D'Alene, whilst trying to give him a stone, after the race Barry revealed he sweated down to 10-7 to ride this kid, a tip in itself, especially the race after Sacre's demolition job.  Lastly a special mention to Legacy Gold who maintain his unbeaten record in the concluding bumper with a taking performance, great things surly beckon over timber later in the year.
  
  
  My advised trixe on D McCains runner came off in a fashion, with the easiest winner of the day, Counsel BOLTING up by 40 lengths at 6/5, Master Red duly followed up at 5/4, only for Cool Mission to be pulled out at the 11th hour, but you'll still get 5/2 your money for the bet, so job done.
  
  
  At Leicester, my only horse advised for the MAXIMUM was Roger Varians beautifully bred newcomer, Azenzar, he played up like a Usain Bolt on Red Bull at the start, leading to a race comment of:
  
  
  "ran loose to start, went right start held up, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and ran on"
  The only dampener was, the his 5/2 S.P was throttled by a rule 4 of 30p/£ thanks to the withdrawal of the fav, who he would of SLAUGHTERED, making my lad an actual 7/4 shot, but ho-hum, beggers choosers and all that...... 
  
  
  
  
  As for tomorrow I have my national ante post book in fine fettle with:
  
  
  40/1 BIG FELLA THANKS (Trustworthy, accurate jumper)
  25/1 BALLABRIGGS (Red Rum in the making)
  16/1 SUNNYHILLBOY (Missed by an inch in 2012, and with AP deserting, will be value)
  11/1 CAPPA BLEU (New kid, stays forever, booking of Maloney a minus though)
  
  
  I truly believe it'll be a year of the old stager's, and the top three have cleared over 100 national fences in their respective careers without the slightest blip, yes yes, there may well be a young whipper-snapper on the up, but i'll take my chances on the old guard, oh and whilst we're on opinions, On His Own is an absolute DOG of a bet, I think 14/1 is too short, so you can only imagine what I think of the 6/1 be gobbled up by Ruby Walsh's, third, yes, THIRD choice ride, I couldn't back him with your money, he simply CANNOT stay in my opinion, and i'll be laying him for a place on the "fair" at 4.1 or lower.
  
  
  The ONLY nag i'm interested in tomorrow is the RED HOT D.McCains UP AND GO in the opener, kept SUPER fresh by side stepping many a temping festival pot, he looked simply sublime when trouncing Aaim To Prosper at Ascot by 6 (could have been 36!) lengths, I rate him in the high 150's, yet he is racing here off only 142, so, unless Dodging Bullets can reproduce his 158 run, this is here for the taking, expect him to be backed, and like Counsel today, make all, kick on off the bend and whistle clear, on my tissue it's:
  
  
  4/6 Up And Go
  7/2 Dodging Bullets
  7/1 Eduard
  
  
  
  
  But the industry prices are:
  2/1   Up And Go
  5/2   Dodging Bullets
  11/2 Eduard
  So, as you regular readers know, for me it's ALL ABOUT VALUE, even if that means 1/3 Sacre when he should be 1/7, so i'm positively chomping at the bit to get a nice, fat slice of that "bottle".
  The best of luck to one and all for their punting on the  National, and if you open an account, make it BetVictor as are going 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6,  and Paddy Power are going 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 with a FREE £20 bet for new account customers.
  
  
  
  So it's off to the land of nod I go, for my last nights sleep on good old English soil until Tuesday, just worked out, the Paris Marathon 2013 (or ANY marathon for that matter!) is equal to 5.822222 Grand Nationals, kinda regretting working that one out.......
  
  
  Cath y'all early next week, if the legs are still a'workin'......
  
  
  
  
  Be Lucky!!!
  
  
  
  
  
  
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Up The Creek, With Rocky As My Paddle......

Well...

Short but sweet it must be, as early nights are the order of the day due to the minor detail of the odd 42.195km to jog around Paris on Sunday...

Quick note on today, I TRULY believe we saw the 2014 Champion Hurdler today in "The New One"....this remarkable 5 y/o, (yup, only a baby) was only outbattled close home by the tough as teak Zarkandar, and even TOUGHER R Walsh...BUT,  The New One was the quickest home over the last two flights at the festival of ANY of the hurdlers, quicker than Hurricane Fly, quicker than Quevega, quicker than Champagne Fever....so he has to be ridden for a turn of foot, and bearing in mind Zarkandar will be stepped up to 3m next season and our lad is an out and out 2 miler, I would LOVE to see Sammy T-D hold on to him for a bit longer, I WAS SCREEEEAMING at my screen..."not yet Sammy, NOT YET SAMMY!!!" ...hoping, praying, BEGGING he would attack at the last and do Zarkandar for toe, but he appeared to get stagefright and kicked on 2 out, giving 'kandar PER-LENTY of time to eyeball the youngster, and ultimately grind out the win.

The New One is 6/1 2nd fav with Paddy Power, and if you don't mind waiting 11 months for a return on your investment, there are FAR worse ante post wagers..oh, and have your LIFE SAVINGS on Sacre at a quite BARMY 4/7 to repeat his Champion Chase romp, with Simonsig and Flemenstar his closest market rivals, both not likely to take him on...


So, back to tomorrows card, I needed a wheelbarrow after my Festival nap At Fishers Cross did the biz, but 5/4 tomorrow, albeit the right price form wise, does come with a scathing AP assesment, "he needs the mud"...tomorrow is looking good/soft at best, you place your bet, you takes your chances, I personally think class will out, and he can defeat a gallant Road To Riches by a few lengths.

The NAP on the card is in the 230pm, Rocky Creek, he was pulled out of the festival and with be cherry ripe for this, Paul Nicholls has always thought a lot of him, and today is his gold cup, his day of reckoning, to silence the doubters, in my opinion he only really has the latest in a seemingly LONG LINE of Pipe "hype horses" to beat, the now perpetually layable Dynaste, who is rated 157, and yet the Pipe stable STILL continue to yo-yo him up and down in trip, Rocky Creek all the way.

I won't waste my breath elaborating, but those who read my blog regularly know my opinion of the Long Black Aeroplane, let me just say:


*****SPRINTER SACRE WILL DESTROY CUE CARD AND FLEMENSTAR, END OF*****


I quick mention in the 450pm to the unbeaten Broadway Buffalo who has looked AWESOME in his 5 wins, and can notch up number 6 at the expense of Cotton Mill and Minella Fortress.  In the 340pm Walkon is a horse I have been following for a few years now, he looked above average in a couple of runs at Prestbury Park in November/December finishing runner up to decent tools, Unioniste and Al Ferof, he fluffed his lines back there the last twice, but has always been held in high regard by Alan King, and a return to previous form would make a MOCKERY of his 28/1 quote.

Lastly, it takes a very special horse to win FOUR bumpers, but I believe Molly's A Diva is just that, easily winning  it's opening two races, it then proceeded to scoot home in a listed event (beating the re-opposing Carole's Spirit) in taking fashion, priced up at 6/1, that could look mighty TASTY indeed at the 2 pole when Nick Schofield is hard on the steel preparing to produce his race winning, sweeping run down the outside.

Donald McCain appears to have a treble on his hands away from the madness at Sedgefield with:

210pm COUNSEL
430pm MASTER RED
535pm COOL MISSION

Bung 'em in a fiver trixie, one goes down ya cover your bet, if they all go in, as well they should, payout around £130.

Only nag to note at Leicester is Roger Varians impeccably bread newcomer, AZENZAR in the 440pm, I FULLY expect him to turn over the more fancied Azelle from the Hannon yard, but as always in these trappy early season guessing games, the market will be the best guide.


Well, time to attempt to get my Aintree placepot perm down to something smaller than infinity, then it REALLY must be time to hit the hay.....


So i'm up the Creek with Rocky as my paddle, and have NO intentions of At Fishers making me Cross, looking forward to tomorrow already......




Be Lucky!!!


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Bowl-ed Over With This Roque Solid Bet.....

"Punters graveyard" is a much lorded term in racing mostly made up of lot's of neatly lined up facts to fit the cause ie: "No horse has EVER won this race off more than 11-9, going left handed, on a Tuesday, with a fictional cartoon character riding him side saddle" ...then low and behold a 11-12 Spiderman pops up, arse firmly to the left of the saddle, cruising to the line on a sunny Tuesday afternoon...then we ALL look for the next reason a horse simply cannot win......


Case and point is the Aintree Grand National Festival, which is STILL mentally close, timewise,  to the ACTUAL festival at Prestbury Park, anyone worth their racing/form salt knows that it's the graveyard of many a reputation, some blame it on the proximity to the Cheltnham affair, others the ground, others the undulations of the course, i'm a STRONG believer in the former.

Many so called "good things" have come here on the crest of a championship race winning wave from the festival, only to be bitch slapped by fresher, inferior opposition, mote noteably in recent times Denman, Kauto and my personal favourite when Istabraq (I told ALL WITH EARS he'd get turned over) got well and truly done over by that M Pipe machine, Pridwell.

So, in the Betfair Bowl, I simply COULD NOT BACK Silviniarco Conti with your money at 10/11.  With a field of more than 8 looking assured it's each way heaven, and with all but two of the runners slogging their guts out at Cheltnham a couple of weeks back, it makes my selection all the easier.  Quito De La Roque is the animal in question, not seen since coasting home in the Matty Ryan at Thurles on Heavy ground in Mid January, he has been put away for this by his canny trainer Colm Murphy whilst others have been involved in brutal festival contests.  I see the race like this, The Giant Bolster is an admirable, but ultimately slow plodder, First Lietenant is stepping up in trip AGAIN, he has NEVER won beyond 2m5f and got a good going over by Cue Card in the Ryanair latest, Cape Tribulation simply is punching above it's weight, Menorah doesn't know if it's a hurdler of a chaser (pulled up latest), Wayward Prince and Whodoyouthink are making up the numbers, that leaves us with just my lad and Silviniarco Conti.

Conti has improved, no denying that, but to put it in the most simplistic terms NH racing is about one thing and one thing only, JUMPING!!!! and He fluffed his lines at his biggest test, before that he beat plodder Bolster 7 lengths at Newbury and previously a non race fit Long Run at Haydock to earn his, quite frankly inflated figure of 175, i'm sick to the back teeth of people telling me "if he would of stood up, he would of won the Gold Cup", but if, indeed my lovely Auntie Betty had a shiny set of bollocks, she would indeed, be my uncle......


The facts are this, Conti could race away with this, but my lad is a solid 160 performer, loves testing ground, and has half a dozen 3m+ victories on his record, and has never, EVER fallen, all this coupled with the fact he is the ONLY runner in the field  (except the rags) lining up fresh and race fit, all this being said, the following does begin to look a tiny bit, well, CUCKOO!!!!!


10/11 Silviniarco Conti
10/1   Quito De La Roque


I seriously think you simply CANNOT knock my lad out of the frame with a mallet, EVEN IF Conti turns up and does his best Arkle impression, we still have 2 places to play for, which makes my lad a 1/2 shot to be 2nd or 3rd i'd MUCH rather that than sweat on the fact that everytime Conti takes off at a fencem there is a chance he may not have Ruby on his back on t'other side!!!


As for the Aintree Hurdle, I will say this, if you would have told me a couple of months back I could have Back Oscar Whisky to win his third in a row at a tasty 7/1 (even each way at that price) I would of asked for the name of your narcotics dealer, but that is now reality, ignore his pulled up at the festival, and furthermore ignore Barry desserting him, and he becomes the most AMAZING value seen in a race since Frankel went off at 7/4 on debut (yes, I was on) and have a lil' ew double with the Roque.


Well Paris Mrathon Sunday, so best eat some more chicken, can't be falling over like Silviniarco Conti now, can we......


Be Lucky!!!



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Studying the Form, now THAT'S a Gamble....

So it all looked SOOO perfect, all was going both to plan and like cloclwork, Shoda was 20/1 in a place this morning, gradually shortened during the day, got SMASHED (as predicted) on course, and went off the 11/2 joint 2nd fav a MAJOR punt was on the cards, as yours truly was in for a good ol' chunk e/w...happy days indeed.  Even the RacingUK presenters were start to lord it about the Barney Curley connection (that NODODY seemed to mention when he was 14's) and generally wax lyrical about the nags chances, and has basically called him first past the post before even a single hoof was planted in anger......

And then they were off!!!....Maloney (for once!) had the lad nicely settled in midfield, creeping into contention on the rail on the good ground, when at the 4th, yes, only the bloody FORTH, he dropped to the rear, then proceeded to tail off, in such a manner that he looked guarenteed to be pulled up, but just reading the result back, for some god forsaken reason he finished, beaten just the odd HUNDRED LENGTHS!!!!...Which technically rates him around 33 (159 behind Spriner Sacre) on this performance as the winner was rated 103, if you go by the "1 length = 3 pounds" theory.

I can only assume Mr P Maloney wanted to have a trot rather thaan a walk back to the stable, and have a "0" and not a dreaded "P" next to the nags name.  Now, let's get one thing straight, I know not whether this indeed was a true gamble, or just a case of mug money following mug money following mug money, but ALL the aforementioned facts/detailed can be found in yesterdays blog post (Shouda, Wouda, Couda) and I stand by ALL of them wholeheartedly, BUT knowing the the connections, albeit loosely to this nag via Mr Curley I would not take this performance on face value one little bit, but i'd love love LOVE and "off the record" chat with Maloney to see the whites of his eyes......


So that would appear to be that, tipped up, gambled on horse from a gambling stable, has the money down and flops, that's it right....?.......WRONG!!!!!!


Shouda is all entered up at Wetherby tomorrow where he is short as 8/1 fifth choice out of the 10 runners, just how is this even possible?!?!?!?!

And ask yourself this, if your horse ahs just been STUFFED OUT OF SIGHT, why would you run him the next day, at a course nearly THREE HUNDRED MILES AWAY to the north?!?!?!?...I should mention, the trainers stable is less than half that distance away, and on the same bloody route!!!!...SURLY you should just take the dobbin home today, tuck him up in his stable, and not let him out again, EVER!!!!....UNLESS, there is a *couch-cough* "touch" going on and today was indeed the reddest of herrings......

Today has indeed left a bitter, bitter taste in my mouth, be if Shouda wins tomorrow it'll be like drinking a cocktail of baby vomit and tarmac blended with camel balls in a nice salty shake......I simply CANNOT, as a form reader back him tomorrow, but I wouldn't put you off, he could win by half the track, or, as quite brilliantly demonstrated today, lose by pretty much the same...


Quick footnote, my fave horse in all weather training "Elusive Hawk" won for me AGAIN (6/4 > 8/13) today, and think he deserves a bit of a break, and would look out for him in a lil' turf handicap in May/June..

I started today think Shouda should be rated over 100, so 87 looked tasty, and end the day thinking 50 looks generous, just wait until 250pm tomorrow, (he should be tailed off by then) and i'm sure i'll have another opinion all neatly boxed up and ready, so once again The Hawk proved anything but Elusive, and as for the other nag, well, he Shouda stayed at home......



Be Lucky!!!


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Shouda...Woulda....Coulda....

Well it's the day after the day before in the PlacePotter household, my good lady is out mucking out the horse, and i'm busy both roasting and coating some lovely cashews with chilli and salt, how the other half live eh?......


Kept the financial interests rather low key today with a couple of meaty Lucky 15's, and in true frustrating style had Five Rivers (7/2) and Minella Special (5/1) on one of them and Sleep At First (4/1) and Mootabar (7/2) on t'other, nevermind, nice pick up either way.

I couldn't really get into tomorrows action with any modicum of excitement, UNTIL I began to scroll down the Exeter card to discover a horse I know only too well....The ex-Barney Curley owned/trained enigmatic performer, SHOUDA!!!!

First and foremost, glancing at the race, I appear, once again to be in "RAVING LOONY" territory, BUT.......a quick eye on the betting forecast has the 7 y/o bay gelding the 20/1 10th choice of 11, a quick flick to BET365 has him as 7/1 co 3rd fav, so for me, the alarm bells aren't just ringing, they are bloody playing the NATIONAL ANTHEM!!!!!!

For those of you who don't know Mr B Curley, he was/is one of, if not THE most shrewd, wiley, clever punters the sport of kings has EVER seen, these three ditty's should save me a bit of time:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Sam_betting_coup

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/barney-curley-gamble-on-curley-trio-foiled-as-last-leg-flops/714570/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/may/26/barney-curley



Shouda is trained by Sophie Leech, a small trainer based in Westbury-On-Severn, Gloucestershire,
who, after what appears to have been a bleak few seasons, is starting to REALLY find her feet with a clutch of wins and places since the turn of the new year.  Shouda runs in the colours of her husband, Chris Leech, and they have a familiar "J.P McManus" look about them, but I guess that's where the similarities end.

The nag was all entered up with another Leech owned/trained horse by the name of Nicene Creed (due to be apprentice ridden) at Chepstow a couple of Thursdays back, where he was due to be ridden by regular Leech "go to"  jockey, Mr P Maloney, but the tale gets a lil' bit complex, Nicene Creed gets SMASHED into 7/2  from 8/1, and Shouda drifts like the proverbial barge, then, there is, surprise surprise an 11th hour withdrawl/jockey change....you've guessed it, Shouda pulled out, and Maloney switches to the HEAVILY backed Nicene Creed, who duly (under one of the most forceful rides i've EVER seen) gets up by the odd length to land the gamble.  So when I saw him going Tuesday, after 3 quite bizarre runs (it's not often you see both "held up in rear" AND "tailed off" in the same race comments) to qualify for a handicap rating of a VERY lowly 87, I thought i'd dig a little deeper.....

He indeed has the highest flat rating of 62 of all of these who indeed ran on the flat, there are only 2 or 3, which means he should have the necessary turn of foot if close enough for his ploddy, quite frankly slow opponents, and in his mish-mashed flat career for Mr B Curley, he had 3 successes (2 turf, 1 AW) and EACH TIME the money was well and truly down, (7/2, 13/8, Evens).  He got beat, nay SLAUGHTERED a grand total of TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE LENGTHS in his 3 hurdle races all shoehorned in to a 10 week spell on unsuitable ground over the turn of the year.  So, let me ask you, putting opinions aside, on all known form this lad has NOOOO CHAAAANCE, zero, he's just SOOO bad....but if that is indeed the case, if, like the original betting forecast suggested he is the second worst in the race, why oh why oh WHY is he 13/2 and shortening?!?!?!?!

The bookies simply cannot get a handle on the tissue of this contest, going 4/1 the field, which usually means, the nanosecond ANYTHING is back with what they consider "clever money" (I own such currency) it will shorten up quicker than a a nail getting hammered into a knackered Futon!!!!

It looks to have been laid out for this, not JUST laid out, but laid out nice and flat, on a bed of almond scented rose petals with a side of lavender.....

I will be going HEAVY each way on the lad as I can't see him out the 3, sticking both Gizzet and Mr Bingley in a CFC & CTC with him and ALSO popping the stables other runner (River D'or 310 Exeter) in an E/W double, just off the off chance Mr Curley is about!!!

So that's it really, of course, it could run like a drain, run no sort of race, but I think, IF he lines up, as the tape goes up you'll know the fate of your cash quite early on as I reckon he will not, reapeat NOT be anchored in last by Maloney, but placed handy, or, with so many gambles (IF indeed this is a gamble) sent to the front in a catch-me-if-you-can-let's-see-how-good-he-is-when-we-release-the-handbrake kind of way....


On a TOTALLY seperate note, those who have been with me since the start (I tip my cap to y'all) know my perpetual affection for a certain Elusive Hawk, and he's going tomorrow to complete what would have been a four-timer if that pesky loose horse wouldn't have scuppered his chances 2 races back, and, although racing off 79, Fitzy keeps the ride so technically only off 72, which is still a pound or two higher than he has ever won off, but he is in RUDE health, and the 11/8 at BetVictor looks mighty fine, he has ALL the field cooked, the only thorn in his side could be Mata Hari Blue coming back from nine month absence, a winner over C&D, but only off 54, so i'm not that worried.....


Time to check those cashews and plan my three-pronged Grand National assault, and count the hours until the MIGHTY hawk wins again, he will, won't he?...oh, he Shouda....


Be Lucky!!!


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I Landed My Double, So What Of It.....

"A blind man, in a dark room, looking for a black cat, that aint there".....that's how each and every one of the poor (no laughing at the back) Towcester bookies must have appeared after the DRUBBING they got from yours truly, along with every other sane punter within hailing distance of this lovely track on an oh so rare day, we, the asute form students, most DEFINITELY won.....

I had a plan, a certain plan, it couldn't fail, it was all SOOOOO simple (read my previous blog: Thinger Licht-ing Good) I was going to LUMP on my two MASSIVE bankers, put them in a double, then put some cream on the cake with an improving 6 y/o, and tinker around the other 3 races....


So it started with my nap of naps, my golden shot, my Frankel of the jumps, my, my, my...WAAAAAIT!!!!!!!....why has it drifted from 6/4 > 11/4?!?!?!?!?...Stay focused, stay focused, now, do what ANY punter worth his salt does in this situation...DOUBLE YOUR BET, which I did, putting a near 80% of the days TOTAL bankroll on the shoulders of this tiny French 4 y/o, to say he couldn't jump with the biggest understatement since it got suggested that Mike Tyson should go to anger management classes, but hey, look, I KNOW it was easter Sunday, but that did NOT give my nag the god given right to bloody BUNNY HOP nearly EVERY BLOODY HURDLE!!!!!  I won't lie, it was tense for the first half, then, it was plain to see the outcome at the two pole, when young Josh Hamer (7) glanced right at R Johnson SHOVELLING away on the non-staying celtic Abbey (lay of the day!) then kicked our lad in the belly and of he took, and how, put six lengths between himself and the field in a second on the ground I KNEW he's adore, he still had 3 easy lengths to spare at line, a case of well and truly job done, and the masterplan was up and running.


The next three races came and passed with minimal financial interest, I thought the old lad Top Benefit was in with a squeak at the foot of the hill, only to flatten out and stay on for a no more than deserved gallant 4th.

So along came the 410pm, a race I had a strong opinion about, only in as much that it represented one of, if not THE best each way bet to nothing seen so far this year, the market was thus:

9/4 Master Todd
5/2 Mister Bricolage
4/1 Count Guido Deiro
15/2 Bar


The top two in the market were rated 108 and 110, and I just COULDN'T see either of them winning in the ground, all the others from Fiddlesticks (backed from 10/1 > 15/2) downwards were COMPLETE no-hopers in my book, which left the lightly raced, unexposed, potential improving 6 y/o Count Guido Deiro.  This was where my financial muscles were flexed for the second time, a meaty e/w bet struck at a now bewildered bookie at 9/2.  Partnered by Sam Twiston Davies, he always had him in the van, and obviously knew he had the horse under him, so one by one the challengers dropped away until he was approaching the last, tailing Fergal Mael Duin, his final challenger...he kicked on and the race was won, but hey!!!...what's this?..the jolly old fav staging a late rattle up the rail....but our let kept on resolutely, and I was now starting, owing largely to the bulge of notes, to walk with a limp.....

So 2 down and 1 to go....I wrote at length in previous blog about the STANDOUT chances of  What Of It in the hunters chase, with my ONLY worry being Stand Royal, so you can imagine my utter, utter delight when a) The danger was a non-runner, and b) my lad was STILL trading at 7/4....I had to rub my eyes at the price, so much so the missus just got a "hold these" (my Guiness and Gloves) as I darted off to unload an ALMIGHTY bet on my lad before it vanished, once again the bookie looked at me with a mixture of begrudging respect, and PURE hatred, "Sticks and stones may break my bones", but SOD IT, i'm with BUPA!!  I just COULD NOT see this lad getting beat, there was nowt to touch in the race and only a mildly game front runner by the name of Swallows Delight to pick up in the latter stages.  So What Of It and Swallows delight raced hand in hand (hoof in hoof?!?!?) for the entire race, with only Rules débutante Citzens Arrest flattering to deceive 2 out, and the stage was set for the almost painfully predictable finale, I knew Swallows Delight would battle back, but I ALSO knew my lad, loved mud, and stayed further, so after the last Mr T D Ward (7) kicked him on, and from that point, as a contest, it was over.

I just stood in content, happy, muffled elation at my days, nay weekend work, my missus, who has enough in the old nugget to row in with me in her financially minimalistic way, even ended up a bullseye, and as for me, well there may well have been enough monkeys to fill a 4 seater car....

The last had a shorty in the much depleted bumper which duly scraped home at 10/11 after Dickie Johnson had been riding the ears off of it for the last half mile, not, I repeat NOT my kind of bet, by the time he belatedly crossed the line, we were safely in the 4x4, halfway home to our leafy village, exchanging stories to each other about the races we just saw.....

So, what started yesterday morning at 7:55am (the Morning Line) with solid hopes and informed form choices, has ended with a whole host of winners, a 33/1 winner the Lincoln, a 11/4 Nap & 7/4 n.b and a near 10/1 advised double, not to mention I only missed out on the Lincoln forecast by what appeared to be the width of a VERY thin piece of fag paper, but ho-hum, greed is not in my nature, but winning most definitely is!!!!

I don't have a massively strong opinion about tomorrows racing, as i've learnt to take it easy the day after a LARGE weekend, but you could do worse than have a few shillings on:


2:20pm Warwick: Intense Feeling


With any luck he'll go off around the 6/4 mark (trading 2.48 on Betfair as we speak), and is value in my eyes, one of only 2 i the field with experience (which is VITAL at Warwick) and chased home the super-smart W.G.M Turner trained early season 2 y/o "Mick's Yer Man" on Saturday, and this represents a sizeable drop in class, well that's it from me, time for bed, the mattress is going to be AWFULLY bumpy with all that cash under it.....



Be Lucky!!!


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