Sunday 26 May 2013

Time To BATT-ER Those Lovely Bookies........

Well,


It's the morning after the day before in the PlacePotter household, the sun is shining, the espresso machine is on, and the good Dr is down the stables giving the horse the once over, all this whilst I watch the replay of yesterdays Temple Stakes on wrap-round...you just GOTTA love a 14/1 MEGA NAP.....hope y'all got on, grab yourselves a Paddy Power a/c which has guaranteed prices for almost EVERY race, so my taking of the 10/1 in the early morning multiplied by 40% and I still got the latter, 'appy days!!!



The day after such a "touch" I normally lay low and wallow in the glory of tipping the almost untippable, BUT, something has caught my eye in the simplest of races at the Curragh, a lil' 28 runner cavalry charge over 6f at 430pm with, wait for it, just the 28 runners.....


The nag in question is Micheal Mulvany's JEMBATT , an oh so gutsy runner up in this last year, has had the benefit (along with last years conqueror Harry Trotter) of a lil' pipe opener in February at Dundalk.  It's not too dissimilar to yesterdays Temple Stakes in so far as if you like the fast finishing Harry Trotter at 10's, you simply HAVE to fancy my lad, who stays 6f V V V well, at a quite frankly LOONY  25's....both nags race regularly over 7f/mile, so this fast fun 6f with all the hustle and bustle of a big sprint plays right into their hands, just check out Harry Trotter's winning run last year, trapped on rail, and when clear...WHOOOOOSH!!!...as for Jembatt in the '12 reunion of the race, he ran the PERFECT race, in behind, kept up to his work by I J Brennan (3), coming through and past beaten horses in the final furlong, only to be well and truly chinned by Trots near the line, but he won "his" race, so i'll take his position in the runners up berth as a strong positive.


I touched on the jockey there, nothing against Mr I J Brennan (3), but the booking of a certain P J Smullen today CERTAINLY catches the eye, and he was on top the last time our lad won, over 7f at the track last August, and he very interestingly was on board when having the aforementioned pipe opener at an unconsidered 20/1, now why would he be on that.........?


If you watch the two races back to back, you can see Brennan nudging along, then he waits, then hetakes the line in the middle of the racecourse leaving the rail run open for Harry trotter and gets chinned, whereas Smullen is the epitome of poetry in motion, just lobbing along until the hypotenuse racing line appears, via the gap between two horses, towards the rail, then it's a case of KICK ON MY SON and all that jazz.


In other news, Justification looks nailed on in the 215pm, VERY unual for the O'Brian camp to a) have a gelding and b) run it as a 5 year old, the advertised 7/2 looks like a license to print cash, and finally, in the 1000 Guineas, Just a Judge looks the STANDOUT "lay of the day" for me, I think we'll look back at the end of the season and see her runners up spot in the English (real) 1000 Guineas as her highlight, the dangers are aplenty, no least the jockey who perpetually arrives later than a booked doctors appointment, the annoying force of nature that is Mr Jamie "i'll hold her up, get her in touble, and get her beat" Spencer, he's not nicknamed Frank Spencer for nowt!!!!  As for equine dangers, the top of the list and my idea of the "good thing" in the race is D Weld's "Big Break"...he thinks the WORLD of her and is already talking about multiple group 1 victories for her, she did nothing but improve last season, going off no bigger than 5/4 in all her 3 runs, which is a message in itself, one of them a group 3 where she DEMOLISHED a field including yesterdays 2000 hero Magician (yes, he was hampered, but simply WOULD NOT HAVE lived with Big Break that day) by a widening 4 or so lengths, she looks a filly of SERIOUS potential, and apart for the Aga Khan's Harasiya, she's the only filly arriving here without a run which means she'll be BOX fresh and ol' Weldy will have her tuned up to the nines!!!!!


Well, time to toddle off for a picnic with the good Dr, looks like someone has opened a section of Marks & Spencers on our kitchen worktop...... but you know what they say, this isn't JUST tipping, it's PLACEPOTTER tipping.......




Be Lucky!!!



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Friday 24 May 2013

OVERPRICED and Goin' Native....

Well,


That time of the year is here once agian, when young whipper-snappers try to claw the sprinting crown away from the grasps of the maturing 4+ year olds, and in tomorrow's Temple Stakes at Haydock it's no different...


One horse, and one horse alone simply SHINES LIKE A BEACON as the Each Way PUNT OF THE SEASON!!!!....The horse in question in good ol' Kingsgate Native, a past winner of this event a couple of years back and proved he retained ALL his speed at the grand old age of 8 last time out when only narrowly failing to pick up Sole Power.  Both these horses are rated almost 120, both previous Group 1 winners, and both simply LOVE Haydock, and especially this race, so if I were to tell you Sole Power is trading at 7/4 and our lad a frankly MASSIVE 11/1, you may be able to start to understand which my betting arm is starting to twitch!!!!!....You are basically getting two chances to land a 4/6 shot with another chance landing a 7/1 winner, i'll take that ANY day!!!


Of course there are dangers, like the unbeaten, super-speedy Reckless Abanden, but this highly rated/regarded nag is only 3, and where there is NO DOUBTING the ability factor, you have to question what he'll find in a low down dirty street fight of a race,which this, nearly always is, and he is only a measly (Bookies, you have embaressed yourselves!) 3/1!!!

So In a nutshell, I can't knock Native out of the frame with a mallet, a previous winner of the race, with a decent finishing kick, drawn well, plenty of fighting qualities and a PROVEN Group 1 performer, and with Shane Kelly on board, has a jockey to suit his "swooping" style just perfectly, and ALL THIS at 11/1?!?!?!.....I'll just reach for my wallet...


Saturdays are made for races like this, and if this old boy wins, it'll be just GR-EIGHT!!!


Be Lucky!!!



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Monday 20 May 2013

Frankie Goes To Good-Golly-Wood.....

Frankie, Frankie, Frankie....



What have you done?



Once the toast of a nation, a housewives favourite, and the go to jockey for many a top trainer, and the mastermind behind the infamous "Frankie 7" at Ascot, now, a cocaine snorting, disrespectful, attention seeking ego maniac of simply EPIC proportions, who is more interested in his restaurants and media appearances (check out his PERFECTLY choreographed interview with Claire Balding about his "drug taking" and "cutting issues"....pull the other one, it's got bells on) than he is in ACTUALLY DOING HIS BLOODY JOB, which is, in simplistic terms, riding horses and trying to win, and as those jobs go, he had the best one in all the equine world.

SUCH is the GARGANTUAN nature of his utter, UTTER disrespect for The Great Sheik and Goldolphin, he ACTUALLY went to ride Camelot in the Arc, in the process, not so much biting the hand that has fed him, and VERY well indeed for YEARS, but pretty much gnawing it to the bone, but hey, he's BIGGER than the game remember, he's the one and only FRANKIE, him of the flying dismount (NEVER liked that) and that oh so cheeky smile, unfortunately, for me, he is, without a shadow of a doubt the single most OVERRATED jockey in the history of flat racing, who, from early in his career has been pretty much spoon fed the creme de la creme of the equine world through Godolphin, and when that dried up, the great Sheik just waited until the end of the 2 year old campaign and purchased the top horses from rival stables for inflated prices (Cape Verdi, i'm looking at you, running a filly in the derby, do me a favour!!!) but still, STILL this wasn't enough for ol' Lanfranco.


A winner of over 500 group races worldwide, with what appeared to be an infinite, unquenchable thirst for success, the world was both at his feet, and indeed his oyster, so why, WHY did he, in one fell swoop TOTALLY alienate his boss, and the SINGLE most powerful man in racing, and start jamming charlie up his hooter?!?!?!?

When France Gallop banned him for 6 months back in November 2012 I was hoping, praying, BEGGING that he would call it a day, and let the dying, embarrassing pantomime come to a respectful close, but no, NO SIR-EEEEE.....in a whirlwind of inteviews, P.R bullshit, grins, and a carefully crafted hanging bottom lip...BOOM!!!...the twat is BACK!!!

His Lawyer (now, THERE'S a job) has stated on the record, that in addition to admitting taking cocaine he:

"also accepts that he has let down the sport he loves and all those associated with it, as well as the wider public"

Well woopy-fucking-doo-shit for him, you can put a cat in the oven but it don't make it a biscuit.....


I could go on and on and on and ON about my utter, UTTER DISDAIN for the ickle poison dwarf, but I fear I'd run out of breath and capitulate before my opinions were fully out.

He was meant to be returning, all guns blazing, fanfare 'n' all to Leicester this evening in the 650pm, but alas, France Gallop have put paid top that, for a few days at least (but yet his agent Ray Cochrene, was still booking him rides.........go figure)

The winner of his "return race" was called "Prime Exhibit", which just COULDN'T be more apt, because Lanfranco Dettori is INDEED a prime exhibit, but unfortunately for racing, one of a grovelling, whining, spoilt child, who once had everything, lost the LOT and now believes he deserves to have it all back, just because he's had an enforced 6 month holiday, lucky he wasn't caught on a bike in the Alps, he'd be banned for life.....




Be Lucky!!!



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Saturday 11 May 2013

Haggas, Beschizza, and The Caped Crusader

Handicaps,


Each Way 1/4 odds, 1-2, using this theory, todays Victoria Cup at Ascot shoud be 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8!!!!!...But, alas, it's not, usual "first four" places, UNLESS, like the good Dr, aka my better half, you have a Paddy Power account, you can nick an extra place, so with all this being said, I believe I have unearthed a pretty tasty selection for the 29 runner lottery to end all lotteries, IMPOSSIBLE I collectively hear you cry, but remember Levitate, advised at 33/1, scorched home a well backed 20/1 chance?...no?!?!?!?...well you best scroll back and read my Lincoln blog, like candy from a baby!!!

Not dissimilar to the Lincoln, todays race is all about the weaving form and standing by your opinions, and not, repeat NOT being swayed by "unlucky in running" or "should come on for the run" selections, but sticking by my tried and tested (and VERY profitable) route of form reading, and having a PhD in THE BLEEDING OBVIOUS!!!!

Like when Sacre lined up against Cue Card and all and sundry were trying to find chinks in the long black aeroplanes impregnable armour, as for me, I was just STARING longingly at the early price offered odds of 1/3, that's a 30% ROI for 5 minutes "work", in my book he was at LEAST a 1/10 shot, if not shorter, and we ALL know how the DE-MO-LI-TION, oh sorry, "race" went......SOOOO obvious was the victory beforehand, but once the pundits have removed nearly ALL of their collective splinters from their arses from the pre-race fence sitting (just to cover themselves so THEY could be the one who said "yeah, yeah, I KNEW the distance would catch him out, NEVER thought he'd stay 2m 4f) they all jumped, nay CARTWHEELED onto the "he was NEVER in danger" bandwagon with such veiled hypocrisy, it nearly put me off my late lunch, if that's the case Mr.Pundit, have £10,000-£3,000, and show me your betting slip, then, you never know, I may show you a lil' respect......if you can show me an investor/bank who can match that 30% return, they can have the keys to my dusty ol' piggy bank!!!

So with the bleeding obvious well and truly covered, let me introduce you to Cape Classic, a rapidly improving 5 year old, by Cape Cross, from that hotbed yard of the classy handicapper, Mr William Haggas.....I STILL to this day remember his ULTRA tough, front running street fighter, Yeast, making all at Leicester in 200 under a masterful front running ride from Spencer (back in the day when he could ride and NOT think EVERY BLOODY HORSE he's on is fitted pre-race with an exocet missile neatly hidden up its jacksie, which, he inevitably FORGETS to switch on!!!!).......Sorry, getting away from the point, yes there IS a point.....to be considered pattern/group class, or to be handicapped out of this, you need a rating of 100+, and our lad is teetering JUST below that on 97/98, ALL the buzz has been for Ed McMahon's Tartiflette, BUT if you fancy that nag at 11/1, you simply MUST fancy my tip at 16/1.....they met in a competitive Haydock handicap in the back end of April, with Tartiflette victorious, and our lad a closing 3rd, that day, the betting was 7/2 Fav our lad, and 10/1 The "Tart" receiving a full 8lbs.  They reoppose this afternoon on revised terms with our lad only having to give the Tart 3lbs, so that's us 5lb's better off, for a 1 3/4 length defeat, I'll take that!!!...Throw into the mix we are drawn middle in stall 16, and the Tart low in 7, meaning Adam Beschizza can go where the pace is, whereas the Tart is stuck, unless he uses up a LOT of gas crossing over, or on the other hand, he could be where the pace is, in which case our lad can just tack over, but reading the race, the pace looks like coming from the high stalls Highland Colori, Loving Spirit and Born to Surprise all drawn in the 20's.


With a plethora of front runners and nearly as many hold up horses drawn both low and high, we have a nag that is neither, can sit just off the pace, tack over to the side which has the pace, and kick on at the distance in a "catch me if you can" kinda way, I believe this fella has potential black type in him, and after running today he'll most likely be rated in the 100+ bracket, giving Haggas another gladiator to go to war with over the summer, it's been a full 13 years since Yeast, but with Cape Classic, he may just have a tool to rise to the occasion......



Be Lucky!!!





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Saturday 4 May 2013

I'll Approach This Dawn With The Upmost PLEASURE......

So,


Here we are again, 2000 Guineas day, with reputations aplenty, form in the book and enough talking up of PAINFULLY  mediocre nags to last us a lifetime, all that being said, it looks on paper to be an absolute CRACKERJACK of a contest....


Few things make my usually calm blood BOIL the the point of erupting than the ol' "this nag is quite possibly the BEST i've EVER trained" gang, who BLEAT on and on and ON AND ON until it gets beat, then the P.R train/excuse crew kick into overdrive, that's why I have perpetual respect for Geraghty, who thought long, and hard, along with Nicky Henderson, if Sacre, was indeed the best either had EVER had the fortune to be associated with, Nicky 'cos of the AWESOME fire-power he has now and has had previously, and Bazza quite simply because of the quite brilliant Moscow Flyer who was around in the golden age of 2 mile chasers, if Sacre had them lot to run against/routinely defeat I have NO DOUBTS he'd be rated 215p before his 9th birthday, but that's one for another day......


So when I see the Post this morning with R Hughes plaster all over the front page stating:


"This is the best horse i've sat on and I think he'll win"


Not the tip laced with a huge amount of incite you'll ever get, of what is, on paper, a 2 horse pantomime, but he's more than entitled to his opinion, but that's where my problem lies, has he SUCH a short memory to forget:


HARBOUR WATCH: (2011)

"I think he could be a superstar, and is quite possibley the best i've sat on"

 Races 3 times then never raced again.

CANFORD CLIFFS: (2009-2011)

"An absolute star, he kills his opponents with his turn of foot, the best i've EVER ridden"

Yeah, until he met Frankel and got DEMOLISHED by a cosy 5 lenghs, the excuses POURED out after, but here are the facts:

Ratings:

127 Canford Cliffs
147 Frankel


So if the nags he keeps referring to are rated less than an average derby winner as "the best he's ever ridden" he could easily keep repeating this year after year, after BLOODY year.

(For the record, Canford Cliffs would MURDER Harbour Watch AND Toronado in a race, *simples*)


In todays 2000 Guineas you have to, from a rational punting point of view side with physical recent form, if so you are ALL OVER Toronado at 2/1, with his rating climbing from 114 at the end of last season, to a not to lofty 121 now after his Craven victory.....

OR....


If you're like me, a figures man, you just CANNOT and WILL NOT hear of defeat for the MIGHTY Dawn Approach, already a MULTIPLE Group winner including a pair at the highest level in the Dewhurst and the National Stakes, with a nice lil' Group 2 Coventry Stakes in there just for good measure, compare this to Toronado's 2 small field Group2/3 wins and you can see why my pulse is starting the beat that little bit faster.  Dawn Approach ended last season as the top rated Juvenile in Europe on 124, so he is STILL rated above Toronado, even without the so called "advantage" of a recent run, but be sure as eggs is eggs he will be trained to the NANOSECOND by J S Bolger to be FIRING on his 2013 debut.

The facts are there for all to see, Dawn Approach is rated higher, was rated a FULL 7lb higher at the end of last season, is a DUEL Group 1 winner, has been fav for the 2000 Guineas since, well, the beginning of time, is entered up SOLELY in 1m races for it's next 3 outings, whereas Toranado is stepping up in trip almost straight after, making Dawn Approach a MUCH more attractive Guineas proposition, and notwithstanding ANY of this, Godolphin purchased him, and decided against purchasing EITHER Olympic Glory OR Toronado, and that Sheik aint usually far off the mark.  So the following pricing up of the market leaves me SO CONFUSED my head hurts, firstly, my tissue:

4/6 Dawn Approach
7/2 Toronado

The ACTUAL Prices:

7/4 Dawn Approach
2/1 Toronado


So, all this being said, if Dawn Approach has improved 7lb-10lb over the winter from 2-3 as he is more than entitled to do, and strengthened up a bit, I see the race going like this, not much happens until the 2 pole where Toronado is cruising, hits the 1 pole, then he lengthens and kicks on with a devastating turn of foot to put clear daylight between himself and the rest of the field, EXCEPT Dawn Approach, who will be on his quarters and gallop right by.  Toronado could well be stuck with the Excelebration mark of being AWESOME but having Frankel in his way EVERY BLOODY TIME, but hey, at least it'll be good for racing, and if all goes to pot for Hughes, and Toronado just isn't up to it, he should have PER-LENTY of time to conjure up an excuse whilst he strolls around Hannon's yard looking at the early season 2 year olds thinking to himself:


"Hmmmmm, which one of you lil' beauties shall I pick out to be my new next BIG thing for NEXT years Guineas?!?!?!?"


I can categorically say, that the BEST thing Richard Hughes has EVER sat on, and he does it with CONSUMMATE ease, is that old chestnut, THE FENCE!!!!



Be Lucky!!!



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Wednesday 1 May 2013

You Simply HAVE TO Back Tara-THIS!!!

Right,


Short 'n' sweet as just jumping in the ol' 4x4 away from the leafy cottage to Hunter Chase evening at Chelenham, I KNOW it's a LOOOONG time to wait for the best bet of the day....BUT........


TARANIS is rated 150, and a SUPERSTAR (as well as a DUEL Grade 1 winner) in his pomp for P Nicholls, which is between 13lb and STONES ahead of the rest in the finale at 8:20pm, an EASY winner of the £57k Argento chase only a a couple of years back, this would resemble the ultimate of "egg 'n' spoon" races if he is anywhere, and I mean ANYWHERE near his best, he showed his well-being with a THUMPING 13 length verdict 5 weeks ago at Barbury, yes there is the small matter of the admirable Rebel Du Marquis, but all I see is that 13lb lower rated market rival making the market for us, and to add to our confidence our lad is getting between 1lb-13lb form 8 of the 11 rivals, so when I tell you he is currently trading as SECOND fav, at a quite ASTONISHING 100/30 (should be 11/10 in my book) I hope you can begin to understand why i'm starting to think this baby's candy needs WELL AND TRULY stealing!!!!!!



TOOT! TOOT!...the good Doctor is calling from the motor, time to go, but remember, good things come to those who wait, and TARANIS has NO weight at all......




Be Lucky!!!



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