"A blind man, in a dark room, looking for a black cat, that aint there".....that's how each and every one of the poor (no laughing at the back) Towcester bookies must have appeared after the DRUBBING they got from yours truly, along with every other sane punter within hailing distance of this lovely track on an oh so rare day, we, the asute form students, most DEFINITELY won.....
I had a plan, a certain plan, it couldn't fail, it was all SOOOOO simple (read my previous blog: Thinger Licht-ing Good) I was going to LUMP on my two MASSIVE bankers, put them in a double, then put some cream on the cake with an improving 6 y/o, and tinker around the other 3 races....
So it started with my nap of naps, my golden shot, my Frankel of the jumps, my, my, my...WAAAAAIT!!!!!!!....why has it drifted from 6/4 > 11/4?!?!?!?!?...Stay focused, stay focused, now, do what ANY punter worth his salt does in this situation...DOUBLE YOUR BET, which I did, putting a near 80% of the days TOTAL bankroll on the shoulders of this tiny French 4 y/o, to say he couldn't jump with the biggest understatement since it got suggested that Mike Tyson should go to anger management classes, but hey, look, I KNOW it was easter Sunday, but that did NOT give my nag the god given right to bloody BUNNY HOP nearly EVERY BLOODY HURDLE!!!!! I won't lie, it was tense for the first half, then, it was plain to see the outcome at the two pole, when young Josh Hamer (7) glanced right at R Johnson SHOVELLING away on the non-staying celtic Abbey (lay of the day!) then kicked our lad in the belly and of he took, and how, put six lengths between himself and the field in a second on the ground I KNEW he's adore, he still had 3 easy lengths to spare at line, a case of well and truly job done, and the masterplan was up and running.
The next three races came and passed with minimal financial interest, I thought the old lad Top Benefit was in with a squeak at the foot of the hill, only to flatten out and stay on for a no more than deserved gallant 4th.
So along came the 410pm, a race I had a strong opinion about, only in as much that it represented one of, if not THE best each way bet to nothing seen so far this year, the market was thus:
9/4 Master Todd
5/2 Mister Bricolage
4/1 Count Guido Deiro
15/2 Bar
The top two in the market were rated 108 and 110, and I just COULDN'T see either of them winning in the ground, all the others from Fiddlesticks (backed from 10/1 > 15/2) downwards were COMPLETE no-hopers in my book, which left the lightly raced, unexposed, potential improving 6 y/o Count Guido Deiro. This was where my financial muscles were flexed for the second time, a meaty e/w bet struck at a now bewildered bookie at 9/2. Partnered by Sam Twiston Davies, he always had him in the van, and obviously knew he had the horse under him, so one by one the challengers dropped away until he was approaching the last, tailing Fergal Mael Duin, his final challenger...he kicked on and the race was won, but hey!!!...what's this?..the jolly old fav staging a late rattle up the rail....but our let kept on resolutely, and I was now starting, owing largely to the bulge of notes, to walk with a limp.....
So 2 down and 1 to go....I wrote at length in previous blog about the STANDOUT chances of What Of It in the hunters chase, with my ONLY worry being Stand Royal, so you can imagine my utter, utter delight when a) The danger was a non-runner, and b) my lad was STILL trading at 7/4....I had to rub my eyes at the price, so much so the missus just got a "hold these" (my Guiness and Gloves) as I darted off to unload an ALMIGHTY bet on my lad before it vanished, once again the bookie looked at me with a mixture of begrudging respect, and PURE hatred, "Sticks and stones may break my bones", but SOD IT, i'm with BUPA!! I just COULD NOT see this lad getting beat, there was nowt to touch in the race and only a mildly game front runner by the name of Swallows Delight to pick up in the latter stages. So What Of It and Swallows delight raced hand in hand (hoof in hoof?!?!?) for the entire race, with only Rules débutante Citzens Arrest flattering to deceive 2 out, and the stage was set for the almost painfully predictable finale, I knew Swallows Delight would battle back, but I ALSO knew my lad, loved mud, and stayed further, so after the last Mr T D Ward (7) kicked him on, and from that point, as a contest, it was over.
I just stood in content, happy, muffled elation at my days, nay weekend work, my missus, who has enough in the old nugget to row in with me in her financially minimalistic way, even ended up a bullseye, and as for me, well there may well have been enough monkeys to fill a 4 seater car....
The last had a shorty in the much depleted bumper which duly scraped home at 10/11 after Dickie Johnson had been riding the ears off of it for the last half mile, not, I repeat NOT my kind of bet, by the time he belatedly crossed the line, we were safely in the 4x4, halfway home to our leafy village, exchanging stories to each other about the races we just saw.....
So, what started yesterday morning at 7:55am (the Morning Line) with solid hopes and informed form choices, has ended with a whole host of winners, a 33/1 winner the Lincoln, a 11/4 Nap & 7/4 n.b and a near 10/1 advised double, not to mention I only missed out on the Lincoln forecast by what appeared to be the width of a VERY thin piece of fag paper, but ho-hum, greed is not in my nature, but winning most definitely is!!!!
I don't have a massively strong opinion about tomorrows racing, as i've learnt to take it easy the day after a LARGE weekend, but you could do worse than have a few shillings on:
2:20pm Warwick: Intense Feeling
With any luck he'll go off around the 6/4 mark (trading 2.48 on Betfair as we speak), and is value in my eyes, one of only 2 i the field with experience (which is VITAL at Warwick) and chased home the super-smart W.G.M Turner trained early season 2 y/o "Mick's Yer Man" on Saturday, and this represents a sizeable drop in class, well that's it from me, time for bed, the mattress is going to be AWFULLY bumpy with all that cash under it.....
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Sunday 31 March 2013
Thinger Licht-ing Good.....
Some days are just made for NH racing, and today is such an occasion, arisen from my peaceful sleep at 8am, a trip to the lovely Towcester (BEST view in NH racing, bar NONE!!!) only a few short hours away, and with the proceeds of LEVITATES "obvious" (well, obvious for me, anyway, check the Lincoln blog) stunning, gritty win in my sky rocket, today, I firmly believe, will be a good day.....
As for the card at Towcester, it's a bit of a mish-mash of short priced favs, unknown quantities, and confusing ground. The ground is officially described as "Soft", but as the temp reaches the magical 4 degrees (the temp where the frost really begins to thaw) I fear, by race 3, it will be somewhat of a heavy bog, so I am approaching today's punting with a familiar pattern:
1. Take on, or row in with the favs (I will be taking almost all of them on)
2. C&D form, will prove invaluable in aforementioned ground
3. Potential improvers/unknown quantities at a value price
The two bets, for me, that stick out like Steak Tartare at a veggie wedding are:
210pm THINGER LICHT (adv 6/4)
At the tender age of 4, ALREADY a winner over both hurdles AND fences is France, in soft/heavy ground, and has a rating of 128, will relish this trip, lesser company (was in a £150,000 race at Auteil when last seen, didn't show up too well, but the mere reason he was entered speaks VOLUMES for his chances in a £3k egg 'n' Spoon race at Towcester) and the feather weight, thanks to Josh Hamer (7) he will only be carrying 10-6, so he is getting 8lbs from both "Tracking Times" (7/1) and "Celtic Abbey" (4/1) the only two conceivable dangers. A glance a the form shows you that Celtic Abbey got SLAMMED over 14 lengths by Ptit Zig (126) giving him 9lbs, and Thinger Lichct is a better horse that Ptit Zig, as for Tracking Times, the case is EVEN WORSE, he got MURDERED by Shernando (125), albeit giving 14lbs, by a whopping 25 lengths, and again Shernando, isn't rated as high as Thinger Licht, and this is even before you start factoring in the "potential" aspect. How many times have we seen these young whipper-snapper nags pop over from the land of frogs legs, snails and punctual trains, only to absolutely HOSE up on their debut?....I believe this is a good, nay a GREAT thing, I quick working out of the form/ratings if to be taking literally, leads to Thinger Licht being upwards of 20lbs (a GOOD few lengths) well in, so at anything evens or bigger I will be row-row-rowing in with MAXIMUM confidence.
445pm WHAT OF IT (adv 5/2)
This one is a bit more simplistic, hunter chase form can be sporadic, to say the least, but this races just looks ALL WRONG, or ALL RIGHT if you fancy my chap.
What of it is rated 108, the likely fav is the top horse, Start Royal (2/1), rated 107, Start Royal is carrying 12-2, and What Of It, with Mr T D Ward claiming the (7) is only carrying 11-5, so that's a better rated horse, bottom weight, on gloopy ground, getting a FULL 9lbs from the fav at the top......When you look at the form, What Of It has indeed only won once in it's career, barely holding on over 2m4f, AND he has gone off fav or 2nd fav in 10 of his 16 races, but, and I mean BUT.....this is a nag who loves to race up with the pace, and over this 3f shorter trip he will simply have TOO MUCH SPEED for his ploddy market rival, who, in tern has been running, albit with credit over marathon distances of 3m/3m2f+. The last time Start Royal ran over anything like this sort of distance was 2 back-to-back races in 2008, when he got SLAUGHTERED a combined total of FIFTY LENGTHS and only beat a handful of opponents home, with comments like "held up in rear, never nearer, tailed off" and not once but TWICE he has been off for 2 YEARS with setbacks, so, with this being, the following market make up, in my opinion, looks FARCICAL, and I wouldn't be a single iota suprised if they "flip-flopped" and our lad went off 7/4 jolly:
2/1 Start Royal
5/2 What Of It
4/1 Bar
TOWCESTER SELECTIONS:
210: THINGER LICHT (NAP)
240: THORNCLIFFER
310: VALRENE
340: TOP BENEFIT
410: COUNT GUIDO DEIRO
445: WHAT OF IT (N.B)
515: NO BET (JEAN DE FLORETTE, INITIAL TIP, RAN 535pm HAYDOCK YESTERDAY)
So, with a heady feeling of knowledge, happiness and perpetual optimism, we will be leaving soon to the course of the £7,500,000 revamp, quietly confident that these two, low weighted horses have today marked on their calendars to do the business, the double pays over 7/1, that's simply gotta be worth a few quid, you may well be kicking yourself if you don't, just use some of your winnings from my advised punt on LEVITATE yesterday at a tasty 33/1...oh, you didn't back him?....strange, usually, when someone offers you free money, it's considered correct etiquette to accept......
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
As for the card at Towcester, it's a bit of a mish-mash of short priced favs, unknown quantities, and confusing ground. The ground is officially described as "Soft", but as the temp reaches the magical 4 degrees (the temp where the frost really begins to thaw) I fear, by race 3, it will be somewhat of a heavy bog, so I am approaching today's punting with a familiar pattern:
1. Take on, or row in with the favs (I will be taking almost all of them on)
2. C&D form, will prove invaluable in aforementioned ground
3. Potential improvers/unknown quantities at a value price
The two bets, for me, that stick out like Steak Tartare at a veggie wedding are:
210pm THINGER LICHT (adv 6/4)
At the tender age of 4, ALREADY a winner over both hurdles AND fences is France, in soft/heavy ground, and has a rating of 128, will relish this trip, lesser company (was in a £150,000 race at Auteil when last seen, didn't show up too well, but the mere reason he was entered speaks VOLUMES for his chances in a £3k egg 'n' Spoon race at Towcester) and the feather weight, thanks to Josh Hamer (7) he will only be carrying 10-6, so he is getting 8lbs from both "Tracking Times" (7/1) and "Celtic Abbey" (4/1) the only two conceivable dangers. A glance a the form shows you that Celtic Abbey got SLAMMED over 14 lengths by Ptit Zig (126) giving him 9lbs, and Thinger Lichct is a better horse that Ptit Zig, as for Tracking Times, the case is EVEN WORSE, he got MURDERED by Shernando (125), albeit giving 14lbs, by a whopping 25 lengths, and again Shernando, isn't rated as high as Thinger Licht, and this is even before you start factoring in the "potential" aspect. How many times have we seen these young whipper-snapper nags pop over from the land of frogs legs, snails and punctual trains, only to absolutely HOSE up on their debut?....I believe this is a good, nay a GREAT thing, I quick working out of the form/ratings if to be taking literally, leads to Thinger Licht being upwards of 20lbs (a GOOD few lengths) well in, so at anything evens or bigger I will be row-row-rowing in with MAXIMUM confidence.
445pm WHAT OF IT (adv 5/2)
This one is a bit more simplistic, hunter chase form can be sporadic, to say the least, but this races just looks ALL WRONG, or ALL RIGHT if you fancy my chap.
What of it is rated 108, the likely fav is the top horse, Start Royal (2/1), rated 107, Start Royal is carrying 12-2, and What Of It, with Mr T D Ward claiming the (7) is only carrying 11-5, so that's a better rated horse, bottom weight, on gloopy ground, getting a FULL 9lbs from the fav at the top......When you look at the form, What Of It has indeed only won once in it's career, barely holding on over 2m4f, AND he has gone off fav or 2nd fav in 10 of his 16 races, but, and I mean BUT.....this is a nag who loves to race up with the pace, and over this 3f shorter trip he will simply have TOO MUCH SPEED for his ploddy market rival, who, in tern has been running, albit with credit over marathon distances of 3m/3m2f+. The last time Start Royal ran over anything like this sort of distance was 2 back-to-back races in 2008, when he got SLAUGHTERED a combined total of FIFTY LENGTHS and only beat a handful of opponents home, with comments like "held up in rear, never nearer, tailed off" and not once but TWICE he has been off for 2 YEARS with setbacks, so, with this being, the following market make up, in my opinion, looks FARCICAL, and I wouldn't be a single iota suprised if they "flip-flopped" and our lad went off 7/4 jolly:
2/1 Start Royal
5/2 What Of It
4/1 Bar
TOWCESTER SELECTIONS:
210: THINGER LICHT (NAP)
240: THORNCLIFFER
310: VALRENE
340: TOP BENEFIT
410: COUNT GUIDO DEIRO
445: WHAT OF IT (N.B)
515: NO BET (JEAN DE FLORETTE, INITIAL TIP, RAN 535pm HAYDOCK YESTERDAY)
So, with a heady feeling of knowledge, happiness and perpetual optimism, we will be leaving soon to the course of the £7,500,000 revamp, quietly confident that these two, low weighted horses have today marked on their calendars to do the business, the double pays over 7/1, that's simply gotta be worth a few quid, you may well be kicking yourself if you don't, just use some of your winnings from my advised punt on LEVITATE yesterday at a tasty 33/1...oh, you didn't back him?....strange, usually, when someone offers you free money, it's considered correct etiquette to accept......
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Saturday 30 March 2013
NO (Straight) Jacket Required.....
Well Well Well....
Predicting the future I cannot do, but race reading I can, so reading back my post from this morning now fills me with perpetual joy....
When starting out in a blog, you strive to be many things, punchy, factual, humorous, knowledgeable, but most of all helpful to others with a balanced argument of facts and value.
So just as SOON as the gates flew open for the Lincoln I was in in, what only can be described as a "good place"...young D E Egan (3) had Levitate (adv 33/1) "in the van", just waiting to push the button, and push the button he indeed did...going a length clear from my other selection Brae Hill (adv 16/1) at the distance, I honestly beleive he got headed, but then his battling qualities kicked in with the full force of Tyson right hook.....
He had a SH to spare at the line from a lunging Global Village, with the oh so brave Brae Hill a nose away in third, I could nitpick by saying tht nose cost me £700 in f/c money, but i'll smile, at home, alone, both quietly and contently that my 33/1, not only won, but won EXACTLY how I said,
Carlsburg don't do Saturday's.......
Be Lucky!!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Predicting the future I cannot do, but race reading I can, so reading back my post from this morning now fills me with perpetual joy....
When starting out in a blog, you strive to be many things, punchy, factual, humorous, knowledgeable, but most of all helpful to others with a balanced argument of facts and value.
So just as SOON as the gates flew open for the Lincoln I was in in, what only can be described as a "good place"...young D E Egan (3) had Levitate (adv 33/1) "in the van", just waiting to push the button, and push the button he indeed did...going a length clear from my other selection Brae Hill (adv 16/1) at the distance, I honestly beleive he got headed, but then his battling qualities kicked in with the full force of Tyson right hook.....
He had a SH to spare at the line from a lunging Global Village, with the oh so brave Brae Hill a nose away in third, I could nitpick by saying tht nose cost me £700 in f/c money, but i'll smile, at home, alone, both quietly and contently that my 33/1, not only won, but won EXACTLY how I said,
Carlsburg don't do Saturday's.......
Be Lucky!!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Setting a President for the Lincoln....
Off shopping (after reading this, you could argue the items to be purchased should be a straight jacket and a season ticket to the nearest mental hospital) so i'll be quick!!!
My 3 against the field, in quite possibly the TOUGHEST handicap of the year are:
CHAPTER SEVEN (12/1)
Beat "talking horse" Lahaag fair and square, then got snapped up for a cool £95,00 by them of the bottomless pockets, Pearl Bloodstock Ltd, drawn dead centre in 14, G Lee can just follow the pace set by the higher drawn horses, including Brae Hill (see below) and basically see, at the distance, whether the animal is indeed good enough.
BRAE HILL (16/1)
Drawn higher than Chapter Seven, so , drawn to ATTACK!!!...and attack he will, a bit of a "Standing Dish" in this race, finishing second off 95 in 2011, a dramatic victor last year off 95, and has a CRACKERJACK of a chance this afternoon, running off, you've guessed it 95!!!!
Now, PLEEEEEASE humour me for the third, and final (maybe of my entire tipping career!) selection....
LEVITATE (33/1, 1/4 odds, 5 places with Paddy Power)
So, "technically" he is handicapped to finish around 18th of the 22 runners and is priced to do so, but, and I mean BUT.....if you trail back through scraps of his form, he is a mile winner, a Donny winner, AND a C&D winner (one of only 4 in the entire race), albeit at a lesser grade, he won not one but two ultra competitive handicaps (when looking beat for ALL money in both) then missed the break by 6 lengths (only go beat around 4 lengths) next time out when was sent of 5/1 2nd fav, then was totally outclassed in the £100,000 Cambridgeshire after getting behind, but this horse IS A TRIER let me tell ya, drawn low next to a lot of fancied runners, Lahaag, Memory Cloth, Global Village, Hit The jackpot, to name but a few, he is certain to get a tug into the race. At the furlong point, if my lad is within a couple of lengths, 33/1 will look mighty fine, don't get me wrong, all of these unexposed/class horses rated in the high 90's and beyond could well improve straight past him, BUT, my fella is battle hardened, an armadillo of the equine world, the more you ask, the more he gives, and for this reason, i'd back the slugger over the dancer ANY day of the week, Mike Tyson vs Rudolf Nureyev, I know where my hard earned would be going EVERY time........
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
My 3 against the field, in quite possibly the TOUGHEST handicap of the year are:
CHAPTER SEVEN (12/1)
Beat "talking horse" Lahaag fair and square, then got snapped up for a cool £95,00 by them of the bottomless pockets, Pearl Bloodstock Ltd, drawn dead centre in 14, G Lee can just follow the pace set by the higher drawn horses, including Brae Hill (see below) and basically see, at the distance, whether the animal is indeed good enough.
BRAE HILL (16/1)
Drawn higher than Chapter Seven, so , drawn to ATTACK!!!...and attack he will, a bit of a "Standing Dish" in this race, finishing second off 95 in 2011, a dramatic victor last year off 95, and has a CRACKERJACK of a chance this afternoon, running off, you've guessed it 95!!!!
Now, PLEEEEEASE humour me for the third, and final (maybe of my entire tipping career!) selection....
LEVITATE (33/1, 1/4 odds, 5 places with Paddy Power)
So, "technically" he is handicapped to finish around 18th of the 22 runners and is priced to do so, but, and I mean BUT.....if you trail back through scraps of his form, he is a mile winner, a Donny winner, AND a C&D winner (one of only 4 in the entire race), albeit at a lesser grade, he won not one but two ultra competitive handicaps (when looking beat for ALL money in both) then missed the break by 6 lengths (only go beat around 4 lengths) next time out when was sent of 5/1 2nd fav, then was totally outclassed in the £100,000 Cambridgeshire after getting behind, but this horse IS A TRIER let me tell ya, drawn low next to a lot of fancied runners, Lahaag, Memory Cloth, Global Village, Hit The jackpot, to name but a few, he is certain to get a tug into the race. At the furlong point, if my lad is within a couple of lengths, 33/1 will look mighty fine, don't get me wrong, all of these unexposed/class horses rated in the high 90's and beyond could well improve straight past him, BUT, my fella is battle hardened, an armadillo of the equine world, the more you ask, the more he gives, and for this reason, i'd back the slugger over the dancer ANY day of the week, Mike Tyson vs Rudolf Nureyev, I know where my hard earned would be going EVERY time........
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Wednesday 27 March 2013
This Hawk was NOT so Elusive.....
Right, i'm not a big "I told you so" kinda guy, but........
My super-duper-mega-confident NAP of the millennium "Elusive Hawk" duly BOLTED up under R Fitz (7) just a short while ago, if I was the jock, i'd be STRAIGHT off to the doc's to have my arms inspected, 'cos the strain they took in pulling up this thriving 9yo after the line looked severe....
It was all pretty straight forward, punch the old boy outta the gates, keep him handy, get neck ache between 2 out and 1 out by continually looking left at "Ace Master" to see when the eventual runner up was well and truly cooked , then shake him up...BOOM!!!...11/8 NEVER looked SOOOOO good!!!! He is all entered up next Tuesday in an identical handicap, Class 5, 6 furlongs, he raced of 71 today, but with Fitz's claim he was technically running off 64, which is a single pound lower than his highest ever all weather winning mark of 65, which he achieved over course and distance, in a maiden in Feb 2008, he then duly followed up, again over course and distance off the same mark in handicap 4 months later. So, assuming the handicapper will raise him 3lbs or so (it would be harsh to raise him more) he would be racing off 74, so, what would you do, stick A Kirby (The undisputed All Weather KING, and he of the hampered ride two starts back) technically giving the Hawk a 10lb penalty, or stick with Fitzy?!?!?!?! For me it's simple, stick with the young lad and keep the weight off, I mean, seriously, it was the epitome of an armchair ride today, so jockeyship didn't really enter the equation.
I envisage him going off a shade of odds against, but with Kirby up and an unhelpful wide draw next Tuesday we may get a bit of 2/1, and he should STILL sluice up!!!!
In other news, Andrea & Graham Wylie were dealt YET ANOTHER cruel blow when firstly their enigmatic (understatement of the century!!!) Tidal Bay, then fav, was ruled out of the National, now the new Fav, Prince De Beauchene, is also ruled out with a recurring hip injury, leaving them with there 3rd fav in as many months, "On His Own" who will be partnered by Ruby Walsh, if he stays sound I fully expect a MAAAAASIIIVE plunge on the nag, resulting him going off a stupidly short 5/1 or so on the day....
My 3 against the National field are:
12/1 Cappa Bleu (Stays longer than the mother-in-law)
20/1 Sunnyhillboy (Well, just watch the replay of last years race, I aint seen a mugging like that since I lived in Blackbird Leys!!!)
25/1 Ballabriggs (Been there, or thereabouts last 3 years, and has best CD form in the field by a COUNTRY MILE!!!)
Just enough time to say I quietly fancy "Mcbirney" tomorrow over the extended 2m 110y slog at Wolves tomorrow, Foster Road should be fav, around 9/4, and my boy is around 3/1, and I expect them to flip-flop, my lad won pulling up trees over 1m4f no too long back, and is WELL worth another try up in trip, he looked like the perennial non-stayer at his last crack over C&D fading into 11th of the 12 runners, but victories breed confidence, and add into the equation Fosters Road, albeit a useful tool, has been on the go hurdling all winter, and Capellanus finds it tough winning on the AW, at 3/1, i'm fully prepared to chance my arm.
And Finally......
Sad to hear "The Voice" Peter O'Sullivan has had a stroke and is in hospital, but he HAS been going round telling "everyone with ears" on the ward that Cappa Bleu will win the National, great minds and all that.....
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
My super-duper-mega-confident NAP of the millennium "Elusive Hawk" duly BOLTED up under R Fitz (7) just a short while ago, if I was the jock, i'd be STRAIGHT off to the doc's to have my arms inspected, 'cos the strain they took in pulling up this thriving 9yo after the line looked severe....
It was all pretty straight forward, punch the old boy outta the gates, keep him handy, get neck ache between 2 out and 1 out by continually looking left at "Ace Master" to see when the eventual runner up was well and truly cooked , then shake him up...BOOM!!!...11/8 NEVER looked SOOOOO good!!!! He is all entered up next Tuesday in an identical handicap, Class 5, 6 furlongs, he raced of 71 today, but with Fitz's claim he was technically running off 64, which is a single pound lower than his highest ever all weather winning mark of 65, which he achieved over course and distance, in a maiden in Feb 2008, he then duly followed up, again over course and distance off the same mark in handicap 4 months later. So, assuming the handicapper will raise him 3lbs or so (it would be harsh to raise him more) he would be racing off 74, so, what would you do, stick A Kirby (The undisputed All Weather KING, and he of the hampered ride two starts back) technically giving the Hawk a 10lb penalty, or stick with Fitzy?!?!?!?! For me it's simple, stick with the young lad and keep the weight off, I mean, seriously, it was the epitome of an armchair ride today, so jockeyship didn't really enter the equation.
I envisage him going off a shade of odds against, but with Kirby up and an unhelpful wide draw next Tuesday we may get a bit of 2/1, and he should STILL sluice up!!!!
In other news, Andrea & Graham Wylie were dealt YET ANOTHER cruel blow when firstly their enigmatic (understatement of the century!!!) Tidal Bay, then fav, was ruled out of the National, now the new Fav, Prince De Beauchene, is also ruled out with a recurring hip injury, leaving them with there 3rd fav in as many months, "On His Own" who will be partnered by Ruby Walsh, if he stays sound I fully expect a MAAAAASIIIVE plunge on the nag, resulting him going off a stupidly short 5/1 or so on the day....
My 3 against the National field are:
12/1 Cappa Bleu (Stays longer than the mother-in-law)
20/1 Sunnyhillboy (Well, just watch the replay of last years race, I aint seen a mugging like that since I lived in Blackbird Leys!!!)
25/1 Ballabriggs (Been there, or thereabouts last 3 years, and has best CD form in the field by a COUNTRY MILE!!!)
Just enough time to say I quietly fancy "Mcbirney" tomorrow over the extended 2m 110y slog at Wolves tomorrow, Foster Road should be fav, around 9/4, and my boy is around 3/1, and I expect them to flip-flop, my lad won pulling up trees over 1m4f no too long back, and is WELL worth another try up in trip, he looked like the perennial non-stayer at his last crack over C&D fading into 11th of the 12 runners, but victories breed confidence, and add into the equation Fosters Road, albeit a useful tool, has been on the go hurdling all winter, and Capellanus finds it tough winning on the AW, at 3/1, i'm fully prepared to chance my arm.
And Finally......
Sad to hear "The Voice" Peter O'Sullivan has had a stroke and is in hospital, but he HAS been going round telling "everyone with ears" on the ward that Cappa Bleu will win the National, great minds and all that.....
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Tuesday 26 March 2013
Wanna Get Beat?...Join the Cue.....
Well well well.....
Just when we thought The Long Black Aeroplane would have a nice, easy end to the season...BOOM!!!!..up pops the most quietly spoken of racing families, the Tizzards, to throw down the gauntlet with their stable star, Cue Card.
The simple fact of the matter is, he has NO CHANCE, zero, not a hope, diddly squat....or does he????
On the face of it he faces an ALMIGHTY struggle against one of, if not potentially THE greatest steeplechaser of modern times, there is no doubting Cue Card's ability, and it was an obvious masterstroke, if there is such a thing, to run him in the Ryanair at the festival where he duly bolted up, being not quite quick enough for a Queen Mum (well, not with Sprinter in the field) and not quite staying over the absolute flatest of 3m chases in the King George, it appears 2m4f appears to be his optimum distance.
I do fear that he with fall into the dreaded "Oscar Whisky" category of being an inbetweener who will dominate a slighty pointless, nothing type distance of 2m4f.....in the 2012 festival, in the Arkle, Sacre was rated 169, a full STONE higher that Cue Card, who he duly MURDERED over 2m by 7 lengths, in this years festival, Cue Card won the Ryanair over 2m4f and earned a rating of 167, impressive, but STILL 2lbs lower than his Arkle conquerer the previous year, meanwhile Sacre was tanking away from Sizing Europe (172) by NINETEEN LENGTHS to win unextended and earned a rating of 192p, the "p" is a polite indication of the hanicapper say, "well blow me, I have NO IDEA how good this animal is"....
It's a simple equation when you break it down...over 2 miles, Sacre is rated 23lbs ahead of Cue Card, which would equate to about a 20-25 length demolishion if they met over that distance, but they are meeting next friday, at Aintree, in the Mumm Melling Chase, which is over 2m4f, the Ryanair distance, this is the lone straw punters are clinging on to, but the fact remains, Sacre has NEVER been off the bridle, so I simply cannot see him finding the distance any problem whatsoever, it may even be a case of he will prove to be even MORE devestating over further, like Frankel proved when stepped up to 1m2f, it was just more time for the horse to decide how far he would like to win by this time.....
If I was pricing up a fictional 2 horse race between Sacre and Cue Card over the two distances I would see it like this:
2m
1/7 Sprinter Sacre
9/2 Cue Card
2m4f
1/5 Sprinter Sacre
7/2 Cue Card
There would be a touch more "value" relatively speaking in the longer contest due to the mildest of unkowns regarding the trip, but I think a 20% return on you investment for around 5 minutes work is quite good business!!!
If I owned Sacre, I would destroy Cue Card at Aintree, silence the doubters (you know the ones, straight jacket, buckles etc) then politely dominate the 2m division and get his rating over 200, then take in, wait for it...THE BLOODY KING GEORGE!!! No, really, non-stayers in the Gold Cup (One Man) win this, Gold Cup winners win this (Kauto Star, Long Run, Dessie) but I seriously believe, nay am CONVINCED he would simply be hacking along and they wouldn't touch him, then and ONLY then could the CRAZY "could he win a Gold Cup" arguements start, seem impossible? I agree it does appear do, but Sacre is ONLY 7, and will both grow and strenghen up, and won't be at his absolute peak for at least a year or two, scary, isn't it....
I remember when this pure speed horse came over from France in 2005, and ran in the Queen Mum in 2006 at the festival, due to his "Amazing Cruising Speed" and went off even money, he fell, leaving the race to Newmill, people questioned if he would ever get higher than his rating of 167, the horse in question was Kauto Star.....Sacre for the King George? not so funny now, is it.......
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Just when we thought The Long Black Aeroplane would have a nice, easy end to the season...BOOM!!!!..up pops the most quietly spoken of racing families, the Tizzards, to throw down the gauntlet with their stable star, Cue Card.
The simple fact of the matter is, he has NO CHANCE, zero, not a hope, diddly squat....or does he????
On the face of it he faces an ALMIGHTY struggle against one of, if not potentially THE greatest steeplechaser of modern times, there is no doubting Cue Card's ability, and it was an obvious masterstroke, if there is such a thing, to run him in the Ryanair at the festival where he duly bolted up, being not quite quick enough for a Queen Mum (well, not with Sprinter in the field) and not quite staying over the absolute flatest of 3m chases in the King George, it appears 2m4f appears to be his optimum distance.
I do fear that he with fall into the dreaded "Oscar Whisky" category of being an inbetweener who will dominate a slighty pointless, nothing type distance of 2m4f.....in the 2012 festival, in the Arkle, Sacre was rated 169, a full STONE higher that Cue Card, who he duly MURDERED over 2m by 7 lengths, in this years festival, Cue Card won the Ryanair over 2m4f and earned a rating of 167, impressive, but STILL 2lbs lower than his Arkle conquerer the previous year, meanwhile Sacre was tanking away from Sizing Europe (172) by NINETEEN LENGTHS to win unextended and earned a rating of 192p, the "p" is a polite indication of the hanicapper say, "well blow me, I have NO IDEA how good this animal is"....
It's a simple equation when you break it down...over 2 miles, Sacre is rated 23lbs ahead of Cue Card, which would equate to about a 20-25 length demolishion if they met over that distance, but they are meeting next friday, at Aintree, in the Mumm Melling Chase, which is over 2m4f, the Ryanair distance, this is the lone straw punters are clinging on to, but the fact remains, Sacre has NEVER been off the bridle, so I simply cannot see him finding the distance any problem whatsoever, it may even be a case of he will prove to be even MORE devestating over further, like Frankel proved when stepped up to 1m2f, it was just more time for the horse to decide how far he would like to win by this time.....
If I was pricing up a fictional 2 horse race between Sacre and Cue Card over the two distances I would see it like this:
2m
1/7 Sprinter Sacre
9/2 Cue Card
2m4f
1/5 Sprinter Sacre
7/2 Cue Card
There would be a touch more "value" relatively speaking in the longer contest due to the mildest of unkowns regarding the trip, but I think a 20% return on you investment for around 5 minutes work is quite good business!!!
If I owned Sacre, I would destroy Cue Card at Aintree, silence the doubters (you know the ones, straight jacket, buckles etc) then politely dominate the 2m division and get his rating over 200, then take in, wait for it...THE BLOODY KING GEORGE!!! No, really, non-stayers in the Gold Cup (One Man) win this, Gold Cup winners win this (Kauto Star, Long Run, Dessie) but I seriously believe, nay am CONVINCED he would simply be hacking along and they wouldn't touch him, then and ONLY then could the CRAZY "could he win a Gold Cup" arguements start, seem impossible? I agree it does appear do, but Sacre is ONLY 7, and will both grow and strenghen up, and won't be at his absolute peak for at least a year or two, scary, isn't it....
I remember when this pure speed horse came over from France in 2005, and ran in the Queen Mum in 2006 at the festival, due to his "Amazing Cruising Speed" and went off even money, he fell, leaving the race to Newmill, people questioned if he would ever get higher than his rating of 167, the horse in question was Kauto Star.....Sacre for the King George? not so funny now, is it.......
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Monday 25 March 2013
Harris, Morris, and a TOTAL obsession.....
You know you've got it bad, when it's half midnight, you're STILL at work, and you think hmmm, best pop a short blog up"....
So short 'n' sweet it shall be kept.
For the peeps who read my *cough* slight, ahem, moan about a certain race in the "Noverre to Go, Noverre to Hide" post yesterday, tomorrow is indeed D-Day for me, my opinion and the horse that is "Total Obsession"...having his first stab at 10 furlongs at Lingfield with the super switched on Joey Haynes (7) on top, I give him a MASSIVE chance, let's not kid ourselves, it's low grade stuff, he is technically the second best horse in the race, and he's only rated 53, but this I TRULY beleive is his optimum distance, and I simply can't see him out of the 3, and at 6/1 he looks a CRACKING e/w bet to nothing......
As for a quick summery on todays "action", all I can say is, key an eye on, as I do, the potent all weather combo of Ron Harris and Luke Morris, securing doubles (4/6 & 10/1, 3/1 & 7/4) in the opening races two days in sucession, keep backing them before the value vanishes, I remember when I discovered, before most, a certain Dandy Nichols had a knack of training sprinters, that made me a few quid back in the day....
Some good pointers are:
1. Keep a firm eye on Robert Tart (7) and Phillip Prince (7) who ride some pro's to sleep, so any fancied horse is technically 7lb "well in" with either of themm on top.
2. Morris/Harris, I CANNOT stress this enough, they are a LETHAL team, and the value is still just about there.
3. Richard Hannon has started slower than usual with a few shorties biting the dust with Hughey up top, look to lay them in small fields, or look to back against them if you're not a Betfair player until the ominus bandwagoin of winners starts.
4. WGM Turner duly won the Broklesby, as per usual, that lovely lil' horse "Mick's Yer Man" has already had the Lily Agnes Stakes as Chester nominated by the trainer as his next target, where he has enough early pace to act on the course, and granted a good low draw, he should win, most likely at around 6/4.
5. Finally, "Elusive Hawk" is entered in the 16:20 at Southwell on Wednesday, his run today was some sort of miracle getiing to within a length of the leading duo, i'll let the ATR analysys do the talking:
"raced wide tracked leaders, carried very wide bend entering final 2f and badly hampered by loose horse and lost many lengths, ran on final furlong (unlucky)"
BACK HIM NEXT TIME, Kirby will be MEGA hungry for the win!!!!
That's about it today, apart from the MIGHTY Black Caviar (only 16h2 tall but weighs 620kg, thats a full 50kg more clout than a 17h2 Denman!!!) may well go for the Diamond Jubilee, Kings Stand, impregnated by Frankel treble later this year, could never do that myself, no stamina!!!!
Be Lucky!!! (and back Total Obsession!!!)
£££PlacePotter£££
So short 'n' sweet it shall be kept.
For the peeps who read my *cough* slight, ahem, moan about a certain race in the "Noverre to Go, Noverre to Hide" post yesterday, tomorrow is indeed D-Day for me, my opinion and the horse that is "Total Obsession"...having his first stab at 10 furlongs at Lingfield with the super switched on Joey Haynes (7) on top, I give him a MASSIVE chance, let's not kid ourselves, it's low grade stuff, he is technically the second best horse in the race, and he's only rated 53, but this I TRULY beleive is his optimum distance, and I simply can't see him out of the 3, and at 6/1 he looks a CRACKING e/w bet to nothing......
As for a quick summery on todays "action", all I can say is, key an eye on, as I do, the potent all weather combo of Ron Harris and Luke Morris, securing doubles (4/6 & 10/1, 3/1 & 7/4) in the opening races two days in sucession, keep backing them before the value vanishes, I remember when I discovered, before most, a certain Dandy Nichols had a knack of training sprinters, that made me a few quid back in the day....
Some good pointers are:
1. Keep a firm eye on Robert Tart (7) and Phillip Prince (7) who ride some pro's to sleep, so any fancied horse is technically 7lb "well in" with either of themm on top.
2. Morris/Harris, I CANNOT stress this enough, they are a LETHAL team, and the value is still just about there.
3. Richard Hannon has started slower than usual with a few shorties biting the dust with Hughey up top, look to lay them in small fields, or look to back against them if you're not a Betfair player until the ominus bandwagoin of winners starts.
4. WGM Turner duly won the Broklesby, as per usual, that lovely lil' horse "Mick's Yer Man" has already had the Lily Agnes Stakes as Chester nominated by the trainer as his next target, where he has enough early pace to act on the course, and granted a good low draw, he should win, most likely at around 6/4.
5. Finally, "Elusive Hawk" is entered in the 16:20 at Southwell on Wednesday, his run today was some sort of miracle getiing to within a length of the leading duo, i'll let the ATR analysys do the talking:
"raced wide tracked leaders, carried very wide bend entering final 2f and badly hampered by loose horse and lost many lengths, ran on final furlong (unlucky)"
BACK HIM NEXT TIME, Kirby will be MEGA hungry for the win!!!!
That's about it today, apart from the MIGHTY Black Caviar (only 16h2 tall but weighs 620kg, thats a full 50kg more clout than a 17h2 Denman!!!) may well go for the Diamond Jubilee, Kings Stand, impregnated by Frankel treble later this year, could never do that myself, no stamina!!!!
Be Lucky!!! (and back Total Obsession!!!)
£££PlacePotter£££
Sunday 24 March 2013
Noverre to Go...Noverre to hide.....
So, Wincanton beat the cold snap to at least give us a modicum of jumps action to break up the relentless sand racing for all you car-azeeee kats rated 50 or lower, (to put that into perspective, if one of these nags lined up againt a certain Frankel, over a mile, they would get K.O'd to the tune of NINETY LENGTHS, or in distance terms, around a FULL FURLONG!!!) so it armed with this knowledge I tippy-toed ever so quietly into the days action.
As I mention yesterday, the NAILED ON GOOD THING was SURLY "Noverre To Go" in the opener, it did, as predicted get backed from a quite frankly LUDICROUS morning price of 10//11 into 4/9, eventually settling on an s.p of 4/6.........All was going to plan, sitting on the heels of it's vastly inferior rivals, when, a furlong out, Luke Morris kicked him in the belly, and off he trotted, which was a shame 'cos the others were well and truly galloping!!! At the line the 4 runners were separated by less than a single length, but crucially, my boy was first past the lollipop, scrambled home at 4/6, not really Mysic Meg tipping i'm sure you'll agree, but he a) was AMAZING value, and b) HE WON!!!...so save your moans for someone who doesn't understand the point of value (my opening blog, give it a read, it's a BELTER!!!)
the rest of the card was littered with HEAVILY gambled on favs, that all, without exception got turned over, my personal highlight from a "thank the lord I didn't back that imcompetent jockey" point of view was "Teth" in the last, backed from 9/4 into EVENS, he was most punters idea of the winner of the getting-out-stakes, but he was anchored SO FAR back, one could ONLY assume the pilot, a certain William Carson (have a chat to your daddy about hold-up tactics sonny, Derby track record, 1994, nuff said) mistakenly thought he was on a Superbike/Rocket/Frankel, unfortuneatly for all of the jolly backers, he sat around 5 lengths, growing to 10 lengths (no, really he did, in a MILE race) off the pacesetting Beauchamp Xerxes under the wonderfully talented Nicole Nordblad, and got given a jockey-ship lesson he should NEVER forget, as he was feeling smug at the rear, Nicole was gradually winding it up from the from going bit by bit, little by little further and further clear, so when it can the the turn into the home straight, and the alarm bells starting ringing, Ms Nordblad was home, hosed, showered, fed, watered, done the shopping, and was watching the race replay on ATR!!!!
This may at first appear overly harsh, but jockey's need to know form, the simple facet is, Beauchamp Xerxes was NO rag, he was 6/1 third fav, a third fav, once rated 103, now racing 48 POUNDS LOWER than his pomp, I fully understand letting 100/1 no-hopers scorch the sand, as they all, inevitably, come back to the field and have there 6-7f in the limelight, but this was one of the only three horses that could win the race, and to effectively give it a 10-15 length start when you are rated only 1lb apart, seems just INSANE, and you never, EVER was the comment "nearest finish" in the post race analysis when you've been purposely tailing the field in such a deliberate, pre meditated manner!!!!
For the record, I backed Total Obsession (4/1) who was also held up, not quite as dramatically, but still almost finished runner-up (not withstanding the hampering her suffered 2 out when making his move) as his Jock, the quite EXCELLENT Joey Haynes (7) was alert the fact just WHO was setting the fractions, and kept that little bit of a closer eye on, but for Beauchamp Xerxes, the game is up, he will NEVER get that sort of rope again, and I would back either Teth or Total Obsession to beat him next time, especially, due to the flawed was we rate lower grade horses he will more than likely have to shoulder a 7lb penalty.
Totla Obsession is entered in the 5:20pm at Lingfield on Tuesday over 1m 2f, which should be RIGHT up his street after multiple runs at the venue at a mile (finds trouble, gets done for pace before staying on) and 12 furlongs (there 2 out, there tails off), and if Jory Haynes (7) keeps the ride, it could be a case of Oi!!! Oi!!! Oiiiiiiii!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
As I mention yesterday, the NAILED ON GOOD THING was SURLY "Noverre To Go" in the opener, it did, as predicted get backed from a quite frankly LUDICROUS morning price of 10//11 into 4/9, eventually settling on an s.p of 4/6.........All was going to plan, sitting on the heels of it's vastly inferior rivals, when, a furlong out, Luke Morris kicked him in the belly, and off he trotted, which was a shame 'cos the others were well and truly galloping!!! At the line the 4 runners were separated by less than a single length, but crucially, my boy was first past the lollipop, scrambled home at 4/6, not really Mysic Meg tipping i'm sure you'll agree, but he a) was AMAZING value, and b) HE WON!!!...so save your moans for someone who doesn't understand the point of value (my opening blog, give it a read, it's a BELTER!!!)
the rest of the card was littered with HEAVILY gambled on favs, that all, without exception got turned over, my personal highlight from a "thank the lord I didn't back that imcompetent jockey" point of view was "Teth" in the last, backed from 9/4 into EVENS, he was most punters idea of the winner of the getting-out-stakes, but he was anchored SO FAR back, one could ONLY assume the pilot, a certain William Carson (have a chat to your daddy about hold-up tactics sonny, Derby track record, 1994, nuff said) mistakenly thought he was on a Superbike/Rocket/Frankel, unfortuneatly for all of the jolly backers, he sat around 5 lengths, growing to 10 lengths (no, really he did, in a MILE race) off the pacesetting Beauchamp Xerxes under the wonderfully talented Nicole Nordblad, and got given a jockey-ship lesson he should NEVER forget, as he was feeling smug at the rear, Nicole was gradually winding it up from the from going bit by bit, little by little further and further clear, so when it can the the turn into the home straight, and the alarm bells starting ringing, Ms Nordblad was home, hosed, showered, fed, watered, done the shopping, and was watching the race replay on ATR!!!!
This may at first appear overly harsh, but jockey's need to know form, the simple facet is, Beauchamp Xerxes was NO rag, he was 6/1 third fav, a third fav, once rated 103, now racing 48 POUNDS LOWER than his pomp, I fully understand letting 100/1 no-hopers scorch the sand, as they all, inevitably, come back to the field and have there 6-7f in the limelight, but this was one of the only three horses that could win the race, and to effectively give it a 10-15 length start when you are rated only 1lb apart, seems just INSANE, and you never, EVER was the comment "nearest finish" in the post race analysis when you've been purposely tailing the field in such a deliberate, pre meditated manner!!!!
For the record, I backed Total Obsession (4/1) who was also held up, not quite as dramatically, but still almost finished runner-up (not withstanding the hampering her suffered 2 out when making his move) as his Jock, the quite EXCELLENT Joey Haynes (7) was alert the fact just WHO was setting the fractions, and kept that little bit of a closer eye on, but for Beauchamp Xerxes, the game is up, he will NEVER get that sort of rope again, and I would back either Teth or Total Obsession to beat him next time, especially, due to the flawed was we rate lower grade horses he will more than likely have to shoulder a 7lb penalty.
Totla Obsession is entered in the 5:20pm at Lingfield on Tuesday over 1m 2f, which should be RIGHT up his street after multiple runs at the venue at a mile (finds trouble, gets done for pace before staying on) and 12 furlongs (there 2 out, there tails off), and if Jory Haynes (7) keeps the ride, it could be a case of Oi!!! Oi!!! Oiiiiiiii!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Saturday 23 March 2013
Snow, Frost, and Ironic "All Weather Racing"
So waking up this morning I has aspirations of well and truly filling my betting boots with all the high drawn numbers at Donny (soft ground = MAJOR advantage at Donny) with my e/w lucky 15 all written out with no nag shorter than 16/1....alas, I got to work, strolled the Laddy's early morning to discover, to my HORROR only Southwell (pronounced suv-ill or south-well depending if you are Simon Mapletoft or not) remained, i'm not say I disapprove of the all weather, but when "all weather" meetings get called off/abandoned, it leave a sour taste of irony is one's mouth.....
But I forged ahead, securing the winner in the opener (3 runner affiar with a bad bad BAD 4/7 M Johnson fav backed off the boards) with the 6/4 secon fav, then had the 1-2 in the second, my so-called "banker" in my placepot "Man of my Word" ran in the 3rd, and showed up well in the market around 9/2, but, unfortunately for me, he decided to run with as much athleticism as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping, he didn't finish last, he finished 9th, of 10....placepot over for another day....
I had a few quid on Dubai Hills who I had a GAZILLION miles ahead of the handicapper and only had Frontier Flight to beat, who he did, convincingly, but "Docofthebay" a grand old 9 year old servant for the Dixons, rated 103 in his pomp, gave the 6/4 jolly an ALMIGHTY fright, going tooth 'n' nail all the way down the seemingly never ending Suv-ill straight, but it was a case of job done...
A case of "Mission Accomplished" was well and truly the case in the next with the admirably average all weather stalwart "Mataajir" was freely available at 3/1 in the morning, then around 9/4 early afternoon, already 3lb well in, it was announced that a jockey change would all be happening, claiming a further 7lb off the nag...he was duly SMASHED into 6/4 upon the news and won in style....he appeared to have a strong chance in what, on paper looked a perfectly winnable race, but if you go back to early December 2011, you will see he hammered a field of 13 in a Southwell, Class 6, 7 Furlong race at the juicy price of 20/1, and had never run this course/distance since, so, for me, he was a 1/3 shot, well hello baby, i'll just take that candy, there's a good lad....
A pointless 2/7 jolly won his equally pointless race then Putin did the biz at 11/2 in the finale, flooring the uneasy, guessy, weak fav by a couple of lengths, in the process getting my treble up of Mataajir, Pointless 2/7 fav and Putin...so it paid for the day with a couple of cherries to put on my gluten free cake...
So it's dinner time (Lamb Tagine, oh yeah, it's posh down our way!!) and then it'll be time to tuck into pud, pud being tomorrows racing homework where it looks like, again, Lingfield will be the saviour, and in the 4 runner opener, "Noverre to Go" has literally TWO STONE and upwards in hand on his 3 rivals, and rates a 1/5 shot in my book, but is currently trading at 1.9 (10/11) on Betfair.....if you own a pair of boots, FILL THEM, (I recommend size 12's) I reckon he'll go off around the 4/6 or 4/7 mark and simply CANNOT see him getting touched...
Anyhow, thanks for reading, if indeed you are, and yes, yes, the "Sprinter Sacre Rating Fiasco Rant" will be forthcoming, i'm just brining it nicely to the boil in the old nugget.....
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
But I forged ahead, securing the winner in the opener (3 runner affiar with a bad bad BAD 4/7 M Johnson fav backed off the boards) with the 6/4 secon fav, then had the 1-2 in the second, my so-called "banker" in my placepot "Man of my Word" ran in the 3rd, and showed up well in the market around 9/2, but, unfortunately for me, he decided to run with as much athleticism as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping, he didn't finish last, he finished 9th, of 10....placepot over for another day....
I had a few quid on Dubai Hills who I had a GAZILLION miles ahead of the handicapper and only had Frontier Flight to beat, who he did, convincingly, but "Docofthebay" a grand old 9 year old servant for the Dixons, rated 103 in his pomp, gave the 6/4 jolly an ALMIGHTY fright, going tooth 'n' nail all the way down the seemingly never ending Suv-ill straight, but it was a case of job done...
A case of "Mission Accomplished" was well and truly the case in the next with the admirably average all weather stalwart "Mataajir" was freely available at 3/1 in the morning, then around 9/4 early afternoon, already 3lb well in, it was announced that a jockey change would all be happening, claiming a further 7lb off the nag...he was duly SMASHED into 6/4 upon the news and won in style....he appeared to have a strong chance in what, on paper looked a perfectly winnable race, but if you go back to early December 2011, you will see he hammered a field of 13 in a Southwell, Class 6, 7 Furlong race at the juicy price of 20/1, and had never run this course/distance since, so, for me, he was a 1/3 shot, well hello baby, i'll just take that candy, there's a good lad....
A pointless 2/7 jolly won his equally pointless race then Putin did the biz at 11/2 in the finale, flooring the uneasy, guessy, weak fav by a couple of lengths, in the process getting my treble up of Mataajir, Pointless 2/7 fav and Putin...so it paid for the day with a couple of cherries to put on my gluten free cake...
So it's dinner time (Lamb Tagine, oh yeah, it's posh down our way!!) and then it'll be time to tuck into pud, pud being tomorrows racing homework where it looks like, again, Lingfield will be the saviour, and in the 4 runner opener, "Noverre to Go" has literally TWO STONE and upwards in hand on his 3 rivals, and rates a 1/5 shot in my book, but is currently trading at 1.9 (10/11) on Betfair.....if you own a pair of boots, FILL THEM, (I recommend size 12's) I reckon he'll go off around the 4/6 or 4/7 mark and simply CANNOT see him getting touched...
Anyhow, thanks for reading, if indeed you are, and yes, yes, the "Sprinter Sacre Rating Fiasco Rant" will be forthcoming, i'm just brining it nicely to the boil in the old nugget.....
Be Lucky!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Friday 22 March 2013
The Joy of the Placepot, the Eternal Misery of the Odds On Backer
So, had a bit of dinner last night (Risotto, not half bad) then holed up on the sofa and got down to "Homework"...which roughly translated means trying to work out the perpetual labyrinth that was the Newbury placepot on less than good ground...a favs GRAVEYARD!!!
I have a VERY firm rule, NO MORE than 12 perms in a 1x1x1x2x2x3 formation, meaning if I get to the last leg i'm pretty well covered, saying that I just could not slim it down to less than 16 perms at 50p, and so, i'm glad that was the case...
The first race went like a dream, 5 runners, only the first 2 count and the 2/5 Nicholls hot pot trailed in third, with a 33/1 and my 9/1 filling the places, so BOSH!!!..in one fell swoop 95 % of the cash was gone (27% for the tote, of course).
I had the 13/8 fav in the next as I needed 3 "bankers" and I just couldn't see him out the first two, but equally couldn't see him winning, he proved both my therories correct by finishing an honourable runner up.
The third I had no strong opinion about, except the Fav "Prime Location" was a dodge at 11/10, so just slotted the 2nd fav in, who duly won, halfway through and still in....
Race 4 had a "touch cloth" element to it with only three runners, I was strong with both the fa and the next in the market, MUCH has been written in the racing press recently about "Profit to be made backing the outsider of three"...not in this case, Handicap Queen, Venitia William's Benny's Mist hosed up by 26 lengths at 5/4!!!
4 down, 2 to go...squeaky bum time as I had the last of my three "bankers" in a quite competitive handicap, but it was an improving hurdler for the awesome Pipe/Scudamore combo, once again, like in the third, I simply HATED the favourites chance, and that nag would be carrying a weight of the pool along with all the non-runners cash...but Shotavodka got the job done, and the pot of gold was well and truly visible at the end of the rainbow...
Race 6, the money race, was a hunter chase, often a VERY tough sphere to get a handle on form, with a horse showing form figures of -11111-111 going off at 7/1 and one showing 45PF54-67U going off the 11/8 favourite, this is due to the point to point for being showed (albeit in bold type) in the racing press, but if you scratch the surface of the form you can see that the horse with the string of PTP wins is actually rated only 100 and the one that looks like a countdown conundrum was actually rated 155 in his pomp, but still operates in the high 120's... so this was the case in the place pot finale, the fav, who was rated 156 3 years back, but has los 42lb, or a full THREE STONE of ability since went off at 2/1, and my beloved "Offshore Account" rated 147 in the 2009 Grand national when just the odd 99 lengths behind Mon Mome, what difference for me was, this old chap was STILL rated 120, losing only 2 stone of ability in 4 years not bad going......coming to the last , these two were clear, but that didn't concern me, as the 7 runner field meant just the two places...my lad jumped the last and screamed home at a juicy 10/1....Oi! Oi1 Oiiiiiiiiiiii!!!!!!
so for my more than usual outlay of 16x50p = £8 I had a whole 50p steak at the prize which paid a near £440....just goes to show, just like at school, homework nearly ALWAYS pays off!!!
I KNOW I said i'd be doing my absolute NUT over the Sprinter Sacre "ratings" fiasco, but this was a good backing day, and just caught wind of news that Nicky may well step up the "Long Black Aeroplane" to 2m 4f in the Mumm Melling at the grand national meeting on April 5th, the old boy should be a couple of fences clear by the jamstick!!!!
Be Lucky!!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
I have a VERY firm rule, NO MORE than 12 perms in a 1x1x1x2x2x3 formation, meaning if I get to the last leg i'm pretty well covered, saying that I just could not slim it down to less than 16 perms at 50p, and so, i'm glad that was the case...
The first race went like a dream, 5 runners, only the first 2 count and the 2/5 Nicholls hot pot trailed in third, with a 33/1 and my 9/1 filling the places, so BOSH!!!..in one fell swoop 95 % of the cash was gone (27% for the tote, of course).
I had the 13/8 fav in the next as I needed 3 "bankers" and I just couldn't see him out the first two, but equally couldn't see him winning, he proved both my therories correct by finishing an honourable runner up.
The third I had no strong opinion about, except the Fav "Prime Location" was a dodge at 11/10, so just slotted the 2nd fav in, who duly won, halfway through and still in....
Race 4 had a "touch cloth" element to it with only three runners, I was strong with both the fa and the next in the market, MUCH has been written in the racing press recently about "Profit to be made backing the outsider of three"...not in this case, Handicap Queen, Venitia William's Benny's Mist hosed up by 26 lengths at 5/4!!!
4 down, 2 to go...squeaky bum time as I had the last of my three "bankers" in a quite competitive handicap, but it was an improving hurdler for the awesome Pipe/Scudamore combo, once again, like in the third, I simply HATED the favourites chance, and that nag would be carrying a weight of the pool along with all the non-runners cash...but Shotavodka got the job done, and the pot of gold was well and truly visible at the end of the rainbow...
Race 6, the money race, was a hunter chase, often a VERY tough sphere to get a handle on form, with a horse showing form figures of -11111-111 going off at 7/1 and one showing 45PF54-67U going off the 11/8 favourite, this is due to the point to point for being showed (albeit in bold type) in the racing press, but if you scratch the surface of the form you can see that the horse with the string of PTP wins is actually rated only 100 and the one that looks like a countdown conundrum was actually rated 155 in his pomp, but still operates in the high 120's... so this was the case in the place pot finale, the fav, who was rated 156 3 years back, but has los 42lb, or a full THREE STONE of ability since went off at 2/1, and my beloved "Offshore Account" rated 147 in the 2009 Grand national when just the odd 99 lengths behind Mon Mome, what difference for me was, this old chap was STILL rated 120, losing only 2 stone of ability in 4 years not bad going......coming to the last , these two were clear, but that didn't concern me, as the 7 runner field meant just the two places...my lad jumped the last and screamed home at a juicy 10/1....Oi! Oi1 Oiiiiiiiiiiii!!!!!!
so for my more than usual outlay of 16x50p = £8 I had a whole 50p steak at the prize which paid a near £440....just goes to show, just like at school, homework nearly ALWAYS pays off!!!
I KNOW I said i'd be doing my absolute NUT over the Sprinter Sacre "ratings" fiasco, but this was a good backing day, and just caught wind of news that Nicky may well step up the "Long Black Aeroplane" to 2m 4f in the Mumm Melling at the grand national meeting on April 5th, the old boy should be a couple of fences clear by the jamstick!!!!
Be Lucky!!!!
£££PlacePotter£££
Thursday 21 March 2013
The Point Of Value.......
So, here's the thing.......
I have been a worshipper of the "Sport of Kings" for over two decades, and ever since "The Sign" won the"Winalot National Stakes" one cool evening at Sandown in late May 1994 under a thrusting Pat Eddery, I guess you could argue i've been, in one way or t'other, kinda hooked. I can't concisely explain it, neither will I try to, it's just a feeling, a sensation, a buzz, a way of life, pitting your wits against the bookie in the eternal hope you stroll out of their premises one day a bit slower than normal, sweat pouring from your brow due to the wheelbarrow you're pushing.....
But alas, this ISN'T a movie, and i'm most certainly NOT Billy bloody Elliot, the simple fact of the matter is we ALL lose in the end, as do I, just a smidge slower than most. You see, i'm a believer (no singing at the back) a student of the game who deals with the "this should" not the "what if's"...I will let a GAZILLION 6/4 favourites pass me by because, in my opinion they simply don't represent value for the chance, that one glorious chance a nice juicy 8/1 shot romps in by half the track (take a bow Solwhit) making all the hard work worthwhile.
There is a key word here, it's VALUE, NOT price, but V-A-L-U-E!!!!!!!...let me explain......
Case 1:
Oscar Whisky
Never quite quick enough over 2 mile to be a true champion hurdle contender (would have won it in a bad year) but his rating in the 160's is purely down to his quite unique dominance of the 2m4f races at which he is almost unbeatable, so, only ever raced once over 3 miles, and looked not to bad getting done a head to Reve De Sivola, so he took his chance in the World Hurdle, where, the rain LASHED down onto already soft ground making it a true slog, Oscar Whisky barely appeared to stay in good ground, so to my surprise/horrorhe was duly backed of f the boards, 4/1 > 9/4 at the off, he would have been NO value at 10/1, so at 9/4 he was the LAY OF THE CENTURY, and duly got pulled up the the mud, the race was won by Solwhit, rated almost a full stone lower....this is NOT VALUE!!!
Case 2:
The New One
Always the apple of Nigel Twiston-Davie's eye, The New One rocked up the Prestbury Park in January with a single defeat to his name, a 6th in the Champion Bumper in 2012, with a lofty reputation, and only went down by the narrowest of margins to At Fishers Cross under an inspired A.P McCoy, many, including myself had him down as the moral winner, so when the festival came about and he was on offer at 9/2, I nearly chocked, the Irish "Wonder Horse" (yes, yes, they have one EVERY BLOODY YEAR!!) Pont Alexandre, made the market for him off a mark of 154, The New One was rated 152, upwards of 3lb clear of the remainder, the Irish Handicappers have sometimes been guilty of overrating there horses, and this was such a case, sent off the most heavily backed of 6/4 favourites, Pont Alexandre ran well, but simply had NO answer the The New One's burst from the last, storming 4 lengths clear of Rule The World at the line, the Wonder Horse in third, The New One is the best NGT has ever trained in his opinion, and he's had a few good ones, backed from 9/2 > 5/2 and was STILL mega value at that price, he is to be aimed at he Champion Hurdle next year, and around 6/1, you couldn't knock him out of the frame with a mallet!!!!
So, that's an outline of how my head kinda works with things like this, don't get me wrong, I misjudge PLENTY, but am always looking for a calculated reason, the next instalment I will be tackling the can of worms that is Sprinter Sacre's rating apres Queen Mother Champion Chase, and believe me, you simply DON'T wanna miss that!!!!
Be Lucky
£££PlacePotter£££
I have been a worshipper of the "Sport of Kings" for over two decades, and ever since "The Sign" won the"Winalot National Stakes" one cool evening at Sandown in late May 1994 under a thrusting Pat Eddery, I guess you could argue i've been, in one way or t'other, kinda hooked. I can't concisely explain it, neither will I try to, it's just a feeling, a sensation, a buzz, a way of life, pitting your wits against the bookie in the eternal hope you stroll out of their premises one day a bit slower than normal, sweat pouring from your brow due to the wheelbarrow you're pushing.....
But alas, this ISN'T a movie, and i'm most certainly NOT Billy bloody Elliot, the simple fact of the matter is we ALL lose in the end, as do I, just a smidge slower than most. You see, i'm a believer (no singing at the back) a student of the game who deals with the "this should" not the "what if's"...I will let a GAZILLION 6/4 favourites pass me by because, in my opinion they simply don't represent value for the chance, that one glorious chance a nice juicy 8/1 shot romps in by half the track (take a bow Solwhit) making all the hard work worthwhile.
There is a key word here, it's VALUE, NOT price, but V-A-L-U-E!!!!!!!...let me explain......
Case 1:
Oscar Whisky
Never quite quick enough over 2 mile to be a true champion hurdle contender (would have won it in a bad year) but his rating in the 160's is purely down to his quite unique dominance of the 2m4f races at which he is almost unbeatable, so, only ever raced once over 3 miles, and looked not to bad getting done a head to Reve De Sivola, so he took his chance in the World Hurdle, where, the rain LASHED down onto already soft ground making it a true slog, Oscar Whisky barely appeared to stay in good ground, so to my surprise/horrorhe was duly backed of f the boards, 4/1 > 9/4 at the off, he would have been NO value at 10/1, so at 9/4 he was the LAY OF THE CENTURY, and duly got pulled up the the mud, the race was won by Solwhit, rated almost a full stone lower....this is NOT VALUE!!!
Case 2:
The New One
Always the apple of Nigel Twiston-Davie's eye, The New One rocked up the Prestbury Park in January with a single defeat to his name, a 6th in the Champion Bumper in 2012, with a lofty reputation, and only went down by the narrowest of margins to At Fishers Cross under an inspired A.P McCoy, many, including myself had him down as the moral winner, so when the festival came about and he was on offer at 9/2, I nearly chocked, the Irish "Wonder Horse" (yes, yes, they have one EVERY BLOODY YEAR!!) Pont Alexandre, made the market for him off a mark of 154, The New One was rated 152, upwards of 3lb clear of the remainder, the Irish Handicappers have sometimes been guilty of overrating there horses, and this was such a case, sent off the most heavily backed of 6/4 favourites, Pont Alexandre ran well, but simply had NO answer the The New One's burst from the last, storming 4 lengths clear of Rule The World at the line, the Wonder Horse in third, The New One is the best NGT has ever trained in his opinion, and he's had a few good ones, backed from 9/2 > 5/2 and was STILL mega value at that price, he is to be aimed at he Champion Hurdle next year, and around 6/1, you couldn't knock him out of the frame with a mallet!!!!
So, that's an outline of how my head kinda works with things like this, don't get me wrong, I misjudge PLENTY, but am always looking for a calculated reason, the next instalment I will be tackling the can of worms that is Sprinter Sacre's rating apres Queen Mother Champion Chase, and believe me, you simply DON'T wanna miss that!!!!
Be Lucky
£££PlacePotter£££
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