Well it's the day after the day before in the PlacePotter household, my good lady is out mucking out the horse, and i'm busy both roasting and coating some lovely cashews with chilli and salt, how the other half live eh?......
Kept the financial interests rather low key today with a couple of meaty Lucky 15's, and in true frustrating style had Five Rivers (7/2) and Minella Special (5/1) on one of them and Sleep At First (4/1) and Mootabar (7/2) on t'other, nevermind, nice pick up either way.
I couldn't really get into tomorrows action with any modicum of excitement, UNTIL I began to scroll down the Exeter card to discover a horse I know only too well....The ex-Barney Curley owned/trained enigmatic performer, SHOUDA!!!!
First and foremost, glancing at the race, I appear, once again to be in "RAVING LOONY" territory, BUT.......a quick eye on the betting forecast has the 7 y/o bay gelding the 20/1 10th choice of 11, a quick flick to BET365 has him as 7/1 co 3rd fav, so for me, the alarm bells aren't just ringing, they are bloody playing the NATIONAL ANTHEM!!!!!!
For those of you who don't know Mr B Curley, he was/is one of, if not THE most shrewd, wiley, clever punters the sport of kings has EVER seen, these three ditty's should save me a bit of time:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Sam_betting_coup
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/barney-curley-gamble-on-curley-trio-foiled-as-last-leg-flops/714570/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/may/26/barney-curley
Shouda is trained by Sophie Leech, a small trainer based in Westbury-On-Severn, Gloucestershire,
who, after what appears to have been a bleak few seasons, is starting to REALLY find her feet with a clutch of wins and places since the turn of the new year. Shouda runs in the colours of her husband, Chris Leech, and they have a familiar "J.P McManus" look about them, but I guess that's where the similarities end.
The nag was all entered up with another Leech owned/trained horse by the name of Nicene Creed (due to be apprentice ridden) at Chepstow a couple of Thursdays back, where he was due to be ridden by regular Leech "go to" jockey, Mr P Maloney, but the tale gets a lil' bit complex, Nicene Creed gets SMASHED into 7/2 from 8/1, and Shouda drifts like the proverbial barge, then, there is, surprise surprise an 11th hour withdrawl/jockey change....you've guessed it, Shouda pulled out, and Maloney switches to the HEAVILY backed Nicene Creed, who duly (under one of the most forceful rides i've EVER seen) gets up by the odd length to land the gamble. So when I saw him going Tuesday, after 3 quite bizarre runs (it's not often you see both "held up in rear" AND "tailed off" in the same race comments) to qualify for a handicap rating of a VERY lowly 87, I thought i'd dig a little deeper.....
He indeed has the highest flat rating of 62 of all of these who indeed ran on the flat, there are only 2 or 3, which means he should have the necessary turn of foot if close enough for his ploddy, quite frankly slow opponents, and in his mish-mashed flat career for Mr B Curley, he had 3 successes (2 turf, 1 AW) and EACH TIME the money was well and truly down, (7/2, 13/8, Evens). He got beat, nay SLAUGHTERED a grand total of TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE LENGTHS in his 3 hurdle races all shoehorned in to a 10 week spell on unsuitable ground over the turn of the year. So, let me ask you, putting opinions aside, on all known form this lad has NOOOO CHAAAANCE, zero, he's just SOOO bad....but if that is indeed the case, if, like the original betting forecast suggested he is the second worst in the race, why oh why oh WHY is he 13/2 and shortening?!?!?!?!
The bookies simply cannot get a handle on the tissue of this contest, going 4/1 the field, which usually means, the nanosecond ANYTHING is back with what they consider "clever money" (I own such currency) it will shorten up quicker than a a nail getting hammered into a knackered Futon!!!!
It looks to have been laid out for this, not JUST laid out, but laid out nice and flat, on a bed of almond scented rose petals with a side of lavender.....
I will be going HEAVY each way on the lad as I can't see him out the 3, sticking both Gizzet and Mr Bingley in a CFC & CTC with him and ALSO popping the stables other runner (River D'or 310 Exeter) in an E/W double, just off the off chance Mr Curley is about!!!
So that's it really, of course, it could run like a drain, run no sort of race, but I think, IF he lines up, as the tape goes up you'll know the fate of your cash quite early on as I reckon he will not, reapeat NOT be anchored in last by Maloney, but placed handy, or, with so many gambles (IF indeed this is a gamble) sent to the front in a catch-me-if-you-can-let's-see-how-good-he-is-when-we-release-the-handbrake kind of way....
On a TOTALLY seperate note, those who have been with me since the start (I tip my cap to y'all) know my perpetual affection for a certain Elusive Hawk, and he's going tomorrow to complete what would have been a four-timer if that pesky loose horse wouldn't have scuppered his chances 2 races back, and, although racing off 79, Fitzy keeps the ride so technically only off 72, which is still a pound or two higher than he has ever won off, but he is in RUDE health, and the 11/8 at BetVictor looks mighty fine, he has ALL the field cooked, the only thorn in his side could be Mata Hari Blue coming back from nine month absence, a winner over C&D, but only off 54, so i'm not that worried.....
Time to check those cashews and plan my three-pronged Grand National assault, and count the hours until the MIGHTY hawk wins again, he will, won't he?...oh, he Shouda....
Be Lucky!!!
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