Handicaps,
Each Way 1/4 odds, 1-2, using this theory, todays Victoria Cup at Ascot shoud be 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8!!!!!...But, alas, it's not, usual "first four" places, UNLESS, like the good Dr, aka my better half, you have a Paddy Power account, you can nick an extra place, so with all this being said, I believe I have unearthed a pretty tasty selection for the 29 runner lottery to end all lotteries, IMPOSSIBLE I collectively hear you cry, but remember Levitate, advised
at 33/1, scorched home a well backed 20/1 chance?...no?!?!?!?...well you
best scroll back and read my Lincoln blog, like candy from a baby!!!
Not dissimilar to the Lincoln, todays race is all about the weaving form and standing by your opinions, and not, repeat NOT being swayed by "unlucky in running" or "should come on for the run" selections, but sticking by my tried and tested (and VERY profitable) route of form reading, and having a PhD in THE BLEEDING OBVIOUS!!!!
Like when Sacre lined up against Cue Card and all and sundry were trying to find chinks in the long black aeroplanes impregnable armour, as for me, I was just STARING longingly at the early price offered odds of 1/3, that's a 30% ROI for 5 minutes "work", in my book he was at LEAST a 1/10 shot, if not shorter, and we ALL know how the DE-MO-LI-TION, oh sorry, "race" went......SOOOO obvious was the victory beforehand, but once the pundits have removed nearly ALL of their collective splinters from their arses from the pre-race fence sitting (just to cover themselves so THEY could be the one who said "yeah, yeah, I KNEW the distance would catch him out, NEVER thought he'd stay 2m 4f) they all jumped, nay CARTWHEELED onto the "he was NEVER in danger" bandwagon with such veiled hypocrisy, it nearly put me off my late lunch, if that's the case Mr.Pundit, have £10,000-£3,000, and show me your betting slip, then, you never know, I may show you a lil' respect......if you can show me an investor/bank who can match that 30% return, they can have the keys to my dusty ol' piggy bank!!!
So with the bleeding obvious well and truly covered, let me introduce you to Cape Classic, a rapidly improving 5 year old, by Cape Cross, from that hotbed yard of the classy handicapper, Mr William Haggas.....I STILL to this day remember his ULTRA tough, front running street fighter, Yeast, making all at Leicester in 200 under a masterful front running ride from Spencer (back in the day when he could ride and NOT think EVERY BLOODY HORSE he's on is fitted pre-race with an exocet missile neatly hidden up its jacksie, which, he inevitably FORGETS to switch on!!!!).......Sorry, getting away from the point, yes there IS a point.....to be considered pattern/group class, or to be handicapped out of this, you need a rating of 100+, and our lad is teetering JUST below that on 97/98, ALL the buzz has been for Ed McMahon's Tartiflette, BUT if you fancy that nag at 11/1, you simply MUST fancy my tip at 16/1.....they met in a competitive Haydock handicap in the back end of April, with Tartiflette victorious, and our lad a closing 3rd, that day, the betting was 7/2 Fav our lad, and 10/1 The "Tart" receiving a full 8lbs. They reoppose this afternoon on revised terms with our lad only having to give the Tart 3lbs, so that's us 5lb's better off, for a 1 3/4 length defeat, I'll take that!!!...Throw into the mix we are drawn middle in stall 16, and the Tart low in 7, meaning Adam Beschizza can go where the pace is, whereas the Tart is stuck, unless he uses up a LOT of gas crossing over, or on the other hand, he could be where the pace is, in which case our lad can just tack over, but reading the race, the pace looks like coming from the high stalls Highland Colori, Loving Spirit and Born to Surprise all drawn in the 20's.
With a plethora of front runners and nearly as many hold up horses drawn both low and high, we have a nag that is neither, can sit just off the pace, tack over to the side which has the pace, and kick on at the distance in a "catch me if you can" kinda way, I believe this fella has potential black type in him, and after running today he'll most likely be rated in the 100+ bracket, giving Haggas another gladiator to go to war with over the summer, it's been a full 13 years since Yeast, but with Cape Classic, he may just have a tool to rise to the occasion......
Be Lucky!!!
£PlacePotter£££
No comments:
Post a Comment