Tuesday 30 April 2013

Drugs, Shrugs, Classics and Dramatics.......

Well, well, well.....


My silence has I guess spoken volumes, "no blog for a WHOLE WEEK?!?!?!...HAS HE ACTUALLY THROWN IN THE TOWEL?!?!?!?!".........not a bit of it, was just computing, or at least attempting to compute the, ahem "news" from the last handful of days that took us all on a quite the journey,  from an "under performing" (the pundits view, NOT mine!) performance by Sacre in Ireland, to a drug/doping/call it what you will investigation of three-decade veteran, Mr G Bulter, via perpetual classic opinions/nonsense (just admit Dawn Approach is a stone clear and be done with it!), McCoy's 18th straight title, ("you won't have it all your own way next season A.P, J Maguire is coming to get ya"...YEAH RIGHT, the bookies ahem, TOTALLY agree, McCoy 1/7 fav, nuff said!!!) oh, and the small matter of Godolphin having a drug problem or two of their very own.


It's a wafer thin line between that ol' "no such thing as bad publicity" chestnut, and, well, what we've had to endure in the last 10 days in racing, the sport I love so dearly.  I used to be quite the cycling fan/freak, but since that cheating Texan excuse for a man "came clean", or " GOT F*@KING CAUGHT as I more accurately like to put it, I have vowed NEVER to watch le Tour again, this coupled with the fact that as long as that perpetual third person speaking POISON DWARF of a runt, Chris Wilder is in charge of, what was, for 30 years the SINGLE most important thing in my life, Oxford United, my season ticket will remain posted back to the Kassam Stadium, and my shirt, firmly on the hanger in my closet, I guess what i'm trying to say is, i've lost/given up enough, MORE than enough pleasures in my life thus far, and I DO NOT want to get all disillusioned and make the sport of kings another, not today, not tomorrow, not EVER!!!!


I remember as clear as day, the K Fallon "Ballinger Ridge" case (seriously, google the race, if it wasn't SOOOO funny, it'll be painful) , where NOT ONLY did he stop the horse with an ARROGANT level of THE BLEEDING OBVIOUS, NOT ONLY did he tell all with ears that J Osbourne's 4/5 fav "Rye" would win (the horse he let, erm "catch up") but he revealed IT ALL IN A BLOODY UNDERCOVER REPORT IN THE NEWS OF THE WORLD!!!!!....But somehow, lord knows why, all of this vacuum packed, mastic sealed, 100% conclusive evidence just wasn't enough, here is a jockey that has held all the top racing jobs and fucked up EVERY LAST ONE, stable jockey to Sir Henry Cecil, left under a confusing cloud, but the choice of "bed partners" is the widespread opinion of why.....stable jockey to Sir Micheal Stoute, when most of Sir Mikes top owner RUFUSED to use Fallon, he got the boot, next the cocaine snorting chancer landed the job of jobs as Ballydoyle top lad, as stable jockey to the mighty A O'Brien, but got caught for having Class A in his system not once, BUT TWICE in France in the space of just over a year, firstly getting caught/banned, then coming back , and low and behold, getting tested positive just SIX MONTHS later, all of which, led to a third demise with a top yard in little over a decade, all of this makes me question my love of racing, am I blind? Am I naive? Or worse of all, AM I BOTH?!?!?!...talk about not seeing the wood for the trees, thanks to coke snorting weasel like Fallon, I cannie even find the bleeding forest.....


That's just one, a stand alone single case of what damage is being done to racing on an almost monthly basis, the phrase "this has rocked the world of racing" has kinda lost it's impetus, am I the only one, and I mean the ONLY BLOODY ONE who thinks these multi-gazillionaire owners/trainers don't have a spare £100,000 a year to pay a lawyer/veterinary specialist to make sure the whole "doping/didn't know that drug was illegal" thing doesn't happen?!?!?!...or is the awful truth, what we have been dreading hearing, that it's actually rife in racing, just cover up after bribe after backhander after favour after tip-off, and "faces" such as Gerard Butler and most notably Mohammed Al Zarooni (I will not comment on this case to more facts have made themselves known) have just been hung out to dry like the weekend washing in a vain attempt the half-heartedly create the asthetics of the whole "we're cleaning up racing, one crook at a time", where the REAL problem lies deeper, MUCH deeper than we EVER dared to question.

I just hope and pray Paul Bittar "grows a pair" and that this is ACTUALLY the beginning of a major clean up in the sport I love, no chequebook TOO BIG to make them above the law, no reputation to tall not to be cut down in an INSTANT...right is right, wrong is wrong, the sport is continuing to lose further and further sight of this on a daily basis.


If all else fails I s'pose we can always call on the MASTER of P.R/Spin to get us out of this mess....what's that you say?...Max Clifford has been ARRESSED!?!?!?!?!?!.....racing is not on the verge of being toast, more like Satan's Croutons.......



Be Lucky!!!




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Tuesday 23 April 2013

Nothing Scripted About This Post.....

Jamie, Jamie, Jamie.....

Today, for once, for racing, for ME (and the GAZILLIONS of frustrated punters up and down the country) can you PUR-LEASE have your "riding head" on in time for the 4:30pm at Wolves, 'cos........


I GOT A HOOOOOORSE!!!!!!!!!


At first glance the race looks ultra competitive/VERY confusing, but once you begin to peel the onion, things start to clear like a nice pint of ale.  You can, as with a lot of this low grade stuff, discount the bottom half in the betting, so let concentrate on the top 4:


MIA'S BOY:

Indeed is top rated, but this is more for honour in defeat rather than actual victories, his last win came in October '11 when he SCRAPED home over 7f off a mark of 97, and you have to go back 3 YEARS to fin a CD success when he was technically racing off only 67, over TWO STONES lower, seriously not for me.

ELUSIVE HAWK:

Just MADNESS my fave AW horse in training is even entered, AWESOME in his grade over 6f/7f at a push, but only CD try resulted in a sulky almost last, he doesn't stay, and DEFO NOT in this class of race, that's all you need to know.

KINGSCROFT:

NEVER won beyond  7f, and never threatened to do so, ran over CD last time out, going off at 7/2, was obviously fancied, but race comments like the following, DO NOT inspire confidence:

"tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong"

He will NOT "come on for the run" nor "improve for the run" 'cos he is out of the fittest of ALL stables, Mr M Johnson, so will be as fit as a butchers dog each and every race, he was top rated 89 in that contest, and got soundly beaten by nags rated 80 and 84, he, again, DOESN'T stay, pure and simple.

***********************************************


Which brings us nicely onto my idea of the 6/4 market leader (his price on my tissue, but he's a quite frankly CRAAAAZY 11/2 in a place....SO GET ON!!!) and BY FAR the most interesting runner and likely winner.....

POSTSCRIPT:

A DUEL CD winner, off for 206 days, who has alternated between slaughtering opponents in ultra competitive Sandown/Haydock handicaps with lacklustre runs in valuable, HUGE field £100k and £47k races, if this pattern continues, he'll hose in today.  As I have already mentioned, the race is choc-a-bloc FULL of non-stayers, and the bottom 3/4 rags will ensure a fast, even pace, I can see our lad, who simply LOVES to dominate small fields late on over this CD, at the furlong pole, tucked in behind Kingscroft, Mia's Boy, and an already weakening Elusive Hawk under a MOTIONLESS J Spencer, just READY to push the button.  I must admit, i'm NOT Spence's biggest fan, i'd go as far as to say I often don't back a selection PURLY 'cos he is on-board, those of you with longer memories will remember the ABSOLUTE HORROR rides he used to give to that SUPER MARE Soviet Song, my favorite being in the 2006 Falmouth, when she was sent off a RED HOT 6/5 fav:

"held up in rear, effort over 1f out, never on terms"

In the process, managing to make her a beaten fav in 3 of his 4 chances on-board with his "don't worry, i'll make up the ground" frustrating style....but TODAY, that's exactly what i'm after, Spencer having our lad, out of trouble, and nice 'n' settled, tucked in out the back, ready to pick up the inevitable pieces of the non-stayers at the furlong pole, and pulling away up the straight to win "a shade cheekily"....


In conclusion, unless one of the rags turns out to be a tarter, The Hawk grows another couple of legs/sets of lungs, Kingscroft finds 2f worth of stamina in the last fortnight or Mia's Boy decides today IS FINALLY the day he "wants" to win, this contest looks an open and shut case of EPIC proportions, my lad TRULY stays, the rest don't, and the fact he hasn't run for 200+ days means we're getting a nice price.

Who would you back over 1000 metres?  A race fit Usain Bolt, or Mo Farah returning from a well earned holiday....?

Me Too, Cue the Mobot.......



Be Lucky!!!



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Friday 19 April 2013

Monsieur CAN-dou.....

So...

Tomorrows meeting at Ayr has a touch of the "after the Lord Mayor's Show"  about it, now we have both Cheltenham and Aintree safely tucked under our belts, and the emerald glow and lure of the BIG pots in Punchestown only days away.......All this being said, there is a CRACKERJACK of a Scottish National on the cards with SOOOOO much "mug money" spread far and wide on horses over the top and not recovered from Cheltenham/Aintree.

For me, Auroras Encore has FAR too much weight, Big Occasion has had his day and like a lot of improving Pipe horses in now on the downgrade, it's a touch strange T Scudamore can do 10-10 but has chosen to ride the stables 20/1 outsider Problema Tic rather than the 8/1 2nd fav.......anyway, moving on, Our Mick, Godsmejudge and River D'Estruval most likely left there best races at Cheltenham, Neptune Equester is from the gambling stable of a certain B Ellison, so is most likely not value at 16/1, and Bradley simply isn't good enough along with Nuts n Bolts, which leads me with my 3 against the field:


MONSIEUR CADOU Generally 14/1 (Paddy Power E/W 1-2-3-4-5) ***NAP***

Whilst many of the protagonists have neen wetting there noses at major festivals, our lad has been quietly stepped up to 3m4f for a series of 4 prep races by master distance trainer T George, with P Brennan perfecting his softly-softly catchy-monkey tactics.  First up he was sent off 9/4 jolly  at Stratford in November, anchored at the back and was making stylish headway when coming to grief at the 14th, next up later that month at Haydock he made no such mistake, making what is now becoming his trademark "push" from the 16th fence, he dazzled the field and landed the spoils.  He then had a nice break over christmas, avoiding the often untraceable ground to turn up once again, over 3m4f at Lingfield where he caught a couple of "tarters" in Emperors Choice and a then BANG in form Big Occasion, but still made his move at the 16th and finished a creditable 3rd.   Any thoughts or doubts about him not holding his form and/or his capability to run off a short break were well and truly dismissed back at Haydock in March, where once again he made his move at the 16th and pulled away for a very professional victory.  He has never been over this far, in fact 4m+ is a full 4f+ further than he's ever been before, BUT, the way PJ rides him, will ensure he has the best possible chance of getting the trip, and could EASILY come swinging along on the bridle 3f out and go past weight laden, and over the top horses, remember this lad is indeed only rated 126, but subsequently is only carrying 10-4...a full 22lbs off top weight, and as form students know, you can give a stone to a horse in a mile race, but the longer you go, the MORE the weight tells, and our lad has a weight of the feather variety.....expect him anchored at the back, minding his own business, and coming through late on, for me, he's a 8/1 shot, so value it MUST be at 14's....and you're doubling you're stake if the nag is placed.....LUMP ON!!!!


ALWAYS RIGHT Generally 11/1

Thought good enough to only go off 25/1 in last years Aintree showpiece, and was going well until blundering and unseating at The Chair, the 11 y/o advertised his well being with a gutsy win over an inadequate trip last time, and canny J Wade (who also oens the nag) doesn't suffer fools lightly and keep horses in training for the sake of it, an ew punt also advised.


RIGADIN DE BEAUCHEUNE Generally 20/1

Almost the forgotten horse of the race, the fact he wasn't right and pulled up over an inadequate trip latest only improves his price, sandwiched between two narrow defeats to the G Moore MEGA  improver was the most gutsy of victories over 3m5f (one of the few in the field with proven stamina) in the Betfair Chase, where he battled back offering that a step up in trip would offer no dangers, once again ew punt is the call.



Of course, pop all 3 in a cfc/ctc as we SOOOO nearly pulled off in the Lincoln.



So, that's it, with the afternoon looking sunny, and my armchair looking comfy, roll on 350pm tomorrow so I can Dou-Dou-Dou the conga when Monsieur breezes in!!!!!



Be Lucky!!!!


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Wednesday 17 April 2013

I Wonder About Down Under......

So....


***BREAKING NEWS*** (Last week, the week before, the week before that, etc, etc,etc)


Black Caviar is coming back to Ascot with overly bullish Peter Moody to take not one, but maybe TWO sprint prizes then off to see Frankel for a bit of how's ya father, all this is set in stone, 'cos after Luke Nolan "mistook the winning post" at Ascot last year, (I saw it as being WAY to cocky against MUCH better horses than he's used too and nearly getting collared) The wonder from down under has "unfinished business" and wants to show Europe/The WORLD "the REAL Black Caviar" in our own back yard.....


***BREAKING NEWS*** (Part 2, just a few days later)


From out of nowhere, Black Caviar is not only retired, but retired TODAY with NO INTENTION of coming to Ascot, and not only this, but swerving Frankel to go to an Aussie stallion first....I just CANNOT get my head around this, the ONLY explanation I can rumble together in my tiny little brain is that this is Peter Moody's way of sticking two fingers up to us pommies.....'cos from a strictly business point of view, SURLY he should be advising the owners to meet Frankel at ALL COSTS 'cos it's a god given LICENSE to print money.....


The way Peter Moody has spoken has changed in the past week, from all this "unfinished business" malarkey to "i'm just happy we got her back from the brink" blah blah blah....am I the ONLY one who thinks that he just wanted the long standing group one winning record (14) of Kingston Town all to him/herself? Or am I just thinking too much....?

Moody was always slightly cheesed off by the scrambling manner of his wondermare's minimal victory margin at Ascot at odds of 1/6, so you can only imagine if Caviar was 100% sound, she would be going for another date with her Maj, I can only assume she is NOT 100%, dare I say INJURED!?!?!?!? She is reportedly "better than ever" after her 3 egg 'n' spoon wins since last year, so I for one don't buy the "go out when she is fully fit and at the top of her game" bollocks....if she REALLY was at the top of her game, and if she REALLY was fully fit, she'd be at Ascot already, I think FAR TOO MUCH emphasis is placed on "unbeaten" horses, and retiring unbeaten, as it demands a pretty penny in the sales ring, but this being said, SURLY a  date with Frankel, even if Caviar LOST (which I truly believe she would have) at Ascot, would pay handsomely.


I guess i've just got used to the brutal honesty of Sir Henry Cecil and his expert handling of both horse and punters alike during Frankel's career, raising concerns and dispelling myths , but always with a glint in his eye, so when I see a childish trainer playing a game of "no, no, NO!!!..you CANNOT see our horse anymore", even though for the last 11 months he has been coming, I guess I just begin to boil......

A constructive reason has NOT been given, just a melange of management gobbledygook to make the admirers purr, and the inquisitive question, don't get me wrong i'm patriotic, but I did, have, and always will admire the wondermare, but the main players in question deciding if, and indeed WHEN this love affair must end, seem either woefully out of touch, or incredibility dishonest, either way it just aint cricket, and let's face it, the Aussie's kinda suck at that too!

So, alas, Frankel x Black Caviar may have to wait, or may never even happen, i'm just happy and content I got to see them both at their collective peak, not meeting on the racecourse was upsetting but deal-with-able, but not meeting in retirement to continue the dream, well, that's a total travesty, I think in recent times we have lost touch/sight of who/what the REALLY important aspects are, NOT Sir Henry or Moody, NOT Juddmonte Farms, NOT Luke Noaln or Tom Queally, but those lovely, powerful, sublime creatures that, at will, blow the rest of their species out of the water without turning a hair.....THIS is something I, for one will never, EVER lose sight of......



Be Lucky!!!



£££PlacePotter£££

Monday 15 April 2013

Frankel-Stein..........

So.....


Just HOW MUCH is so called "perfection" actual worth?....£1,000,000...£2,000,000...£5,000,000......?!?!?!...I have the feeling in a year or two we will find out...


The MIGHTY, majestic, unbeaten wonder horse Frankel, is due to be, "entwined" with a certain Black Caviar, only after she has popped over via a 13,000 mile plane trip in that achingly cool compression suit, won the Kings Stand, THEN the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot, in the process notching up her 26th and 27th consecutive victory.  The CRAZY talk last year of a possible "Match Race" between them was as ludicrous as it was unlikely, Frankel, at the age of 4 was FULLY effective from 1m-1m4f, whilst Caviar was a TRUE 6f horse, so a mythical "match" over the only distance they could have raced over, 7f, would have resulted in Frankel cruising up to Caviars quarters at the furlong poll and putting Caviar to bed like a mother does to her new born, but, alas, we'll never know, but I, for one, am glad, because now, if all goes to plan, the sibling of this partnership coming together will have a Mum and Dad, who would both have retired undefeated, with 42 combined victories, including too many Grade/Group 1's to mention, and over £6,000,000 in prize money.


But what will this newbie be worth?...What the buyer is willing to pay, who will the buyers be?


Ballydoyle (Derrik Smith, M Tabor, J Magnier)

JP McManus (bit out of left field, but would be no suprise)

Qatar Racing (those of the £2.5m Hydrogen purchase)

Godolphin (Well, if he wants, the ruler of Dubai NEVER loses, and has been looking for a new Dubai Millennium since 2000)

or the most likely of all....


Judmonte Farms (Khalid Abdula, both Frankel AND Dancing Brave's owner)



But with all this supposed potential comes SERIOUS risks.....


HYDROGEN

Purchased by new boys on the block, Qatar Racing, for a whopping £2,500,000, has sustained an injury, and Peter CH has gone on the record stating that the nag "won't be out 'til the back end of the season"

LIFFEY DANCER

A Tatterstalls 2,500,000 gns purchase, a record then for a yearling filly, she was sent to Luca Cumani's stables, in the Summer of 2007 she was a fanfare of a horse, but was, alas, retired before reaching the racecourse.

SNAAFI DANCER

Probably the most famous flop in racing history, in 1983,the hammer went down at Keenland at a WHOPPING $10,200,000...not ONLY was the nag SO backward that it never made it out of John Dunlops yard to a racecourse, but ALSO proved to be infertile at stud, the mind both boggles and faints.



ALL this being said, the lil' nag Frankel x Black Caviar could, of course be a world beater, but we have seen it TOO MANY times before with inflated prices paid for the offspring of Dubai Millennium and Sea The Stars (MASSIVELY overrated) in the past when they just turn out to be good, solid performers.  I SERIOUSLY think that the F x BC offspring with reach at LEAST £20,000,000 if not more, which is just CRAZY as there are no guarantees that a) it'll reach the racecourse b) it'll be any good, I was joking with the misses last night saying that it could be a 7 furlong wonder horse, not quick enough for 6f as Frankels side would blunt it's speed, and not enough stamina for 1m as Caviars stamina input wouldn't be sufficient.

I have this horror story all ready in my head, it makes it's debut over 6f, bolts up, wins a Listed/Group 3 race emphatically over the same trip, pulling away at the end, to apparently "dispel and stamina fears", then is put away for the winter as the 1/2 favourite for the 1000/2000 guineas....Guineas day comes, it goes off the  1/4 jolly as is subject of good work reports at home, we are ALL watching, remembering Frankels trailblazing performance in the 2011 2000 Guineas, and they're OFF....it leads, goes clear, just like it's Dad.....gets to the furlong pole...and WAIT...HOLD ON....it's PADDLING...it fades into midfield, it doesn't stay, this is the horrible truth and reality of horse racing, but just "far too taboo" to talk about.


I feel sorry, TRULY sorry for this poor lil' blighter already, it'll have the limelight on him/her SO much it'll have scorched hair....and i'm just waiting for the Pay Per View "live birth" option to pop up on the red button, NOTHING will EVER be good enough, we, as the racing community strive to get things beat, root for the underdogs and chastise the true greats,  always perpetually looking for the faintest crack of pessimism in any great situation, it's human, it's what we do......but wouldn't it be just swell, if for ONCE, this lil' lad is purchased and kept away from the media, this horse is the product of not one but TWO fairy tales, I just hope and pray the fairytale continues......



Be Lucky!!!



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Saturday 13 April 2013

A Morning Whine.....

Lots of this I used to adore, pre-lactose intolerant milkshakes and ice creams, HUGE greasy burgers and infinite pints of ice cold Stella, ALL of which are now all but stopped for by good health and medical reasons, and this morning I FINALLY caved in and added one more to the list, The Morning Line.......


This used to be the Mecca, the Bible, the first, the last, the EVERYTHING for your weekends racing, the one and ONLY "go to" place for insightful, knowledgeable, accurate assessments of the days racing all laced with just a smidgen of cutting, often scathing witty banter, now, it appears, since the vanishing act of Highflyer Productions it has gone down the style over substance route, losing most of it's balls and almost ALL of it's credibility along the way, the people who have *cough* "gone" are sorely missed, yes yes YES, I KNOW Big Mac was a tool of EPIC proportions, but the man has charisma, knowledge, and a kind of battle scarred opinion you can only get when you have been a bankrupt bookie, not once, but twice...a man who nailed, nay SUPERGLUED his opinions to the racing mast week after week after week and NEVER wavered, of course his was OFTEN wrong, but at least he had an opinion, which is more than you can say for most of the Morning Line cast who must have a case of perpetual splinter complaints in their collective rear end for all the fence-sitting they do, they have that horrible, annoying knack (a la Simon Mapletoft) of, between them, covering off/tipping pretty much every nag in the race and then lapping up the plaudits afterwards......example, a 6 horse race, with betting like this, the "chat" would go as follows:

BETTING

1/3  HORSE 1
7/2  HORSE 2
6/1  HORSE 3
12/1 HORSE 4
66/1 HORSE 5
80/1 HORSE 6


"After HORSE 1's 20 length romp in the grade last time it must have serious claims of following up, although HORSE 2 is a consistent mare and could well be on the premises again, both HORSE 3 and HORSE 4 are on the upgrade and it would come as no surprise to see either of them take this rise in grade in their stride, HORSE 5 has dropped 30 lbs since 2011 and is mow on a winnable mark, alongside HORSE 6 who was group class at best, and today could see him go well"

RESULT 1

1st: 1/3  HORSE 1
2nd: 7/2 HORSE 2

"Well it was obvious really, the others were out of their depth and the front two pulled a mile clear, as, on form, they were entitled to"

RESULT 2

1st: 12/1 HORSE 4
2nd 1/3  HORSE 1

"As we said before the race, this horse is on the serious upgrade, and was always in danger of having too many guns for the favourite, the favourite looked to have it all to do at the wights, and so it proved"


This happens on almost EVERY race, it's "base covering" of the HIGHEST order, hedging bets, the currency isn't cash, it's our respect and attention, it' would be infinitely more helpful if the race preview went something like this:

"HORSE 1 should win, and win my some way, beating HORSE 2, as all the others are weighted out of it thus priced accordingly, if HORSE 1 fails to oblige, we should all give up the game!!!"

And THAT'S why I dearly miss Big Mac....

Tanya Stevenson appears to say everything through gritted teeth as if she has to prove her worth, maybe she is just tired from carrying that chip on her shoulder for all the abuse she got from Big Mac in the ring, and is taking out on us, the viewer.  Alice FLUNKIE (or whatever her name is) is a truly AWFUL presenter, stuttering as she is incompetent, if she spent less time GUSHING down the camera lens about Cue Card, Black Caviar et al, whilst ensuring the show goes as BUMPY as humanly possible, all this whilst perpetually buggering up their new "space invader" style touch screen computer, and more on actually doing research and getting her facts straight, she would be mildy more palatable......

Claire Balding is maybe TOO inquisitive, and TOO knowledgeable for the CH4 crowd, often asking questions that we has no clue on, so the jockeys/trainers/owners has NO chance.  At Aintree, the start of the Topham, she was calling for the heads of the jockeys and the starter after the nags wouldn't line up, I think she needs to realise, she's NOT next to the perpetual whining dwarf that is Willie Carson any more, and she doesn't have to be SO MUCH of a try hard....

Graham Cunningham, is opinionated, but prefers to argue with Jim McGrath, who has gone from a Timeform GOD to a caricature of his former self.....and DON'T GET ME STARTED on Mick BLOODY Fitzgerald....the token "ex jockey" on the panel, they would've done a GAZILLION times better keeping "The Greatest" Francome on board, now THERE was a man with integrity...


The one guy I do admire, is the joyful, kindly patronising, factually knowledgeable, often scathing, ALWAYS entertaining Nick Luckhurst, he will often inject his opinions in a conversation which nearly always doesn't involve him with a Paxmen type guile...the man is not only the glue, but the ENTIRE bloody hardware store that is holding this crumbling, former crown jewel of a show intact, just look at his numerous opening LIVE pieces to camera on course at the start of their afternoons coverage and you'll see a true master of his craft.....so when he has a week off and FLUNKIE presents, you can only imagine my sarcastic joy.....



So, there you have it, once my favourite show on the box is fast becoming a shadow of it's former self, trying to be "down wid da kidz" and "move wid tha times" BUT it has replaced a 1970's Ford Escort with a Bugatti Veyron, and, unfortunately kept the same same old, unresponsive, frail, nonathletic driver....


You may agree, you may most likely DISagree, but hey, at least my mast has, and ALWAYS will have my colours WELL and TRULY nailed to it.....



Be Lucky!!!!



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Wednesday 10 April 2013

Sacre Bleu!!!!!....The Long Black Aeroplane Is Jetting To Ireland!!!

So....


Has the time, the time I have been waiting, nay PRAYING for, actually, really, FINALLY come where the simply INVINCIBLE Sprinter Sacre is hopping over the Irish Sea (He saw a good stride, and didn't touch a twig) to button the the last remaining lips of the uneducated, knowledge-less, flabbergastingly STUPID pundits/fans who still, yes STILL question the cataclysmic might of the GREATEST National Hunt Specimen of this, of ANY OTHER era?!?!?! (I will save my Sacre v Arkle v Flyingbolt rant for another time)...


Well, SLAP MY ARSE AND CALL ME CHARLIE!!!!!...It most certainly appears to have become a reality, and WHAT a reality, he will be lining up in the Boylesports.com Champion Chase at Punchestown, 5:30pm, Tuesday 23rd April, and I for one (of MILLIONS) simply CANNOT WAIT!!!


Since he began his chasing winning spree at Donny in December 2011 (the only time not ridden by Bazza) he has cruised to nine consecutive victories, by an aggregate of 120 lengths against animals rated up to 172 without ever really coming off the bridle, so why oh why oh WHY are the straw clutchers STILL breathing?!?!?!?  I thought the last of them vanished after the whole "he'll do well to beat 172 rated Cue Card, the best and most impressive Ryanair winner for MANY a year over his OPTIMUM distance"....well, i'll let the race comments for Sacre do the talking on that one:


"tracked leaders on outside, poised to challenge 3 out, led on bit between last 2, clear last, very easily"


That race had to be seen to be believed, the manner of the 4 (and a half) length victory was staggering, Bazza had to admit he was "taking a pull" as they were, and I quote, "not going fast enough"...to quantify that statement, the 3 nags in front who "were not going fast enough were:

172 Rated Cue Card, AWESOME Ryanair Winner
165 Rated Finans Rainbow, 2012 Champion Chase Victor
168 Rated Flemenstar, Widely Regarded As The Fastest Front Runner In The Game


So Basically, it's like me running the 1500 metres Olympic Final, tucked in behind Steve Ovett, Seb Coe and Steve Cram, and on the last lap when things are REALLY tearing up, whispering in their collective ear, "hey guys, i'm kinda full o' beans and running away with myself back 'ere, you couldn't just turn it up a notch, could ya?"

All i'm trying to say is this, YES he'll go off around the 1/8 mark, and YES of course he'll win, and most likely on the mother of all bridles, but the gargantuan gulf between him and his nearest pursuers, who, in their own right are mighty champions, is just infinite, and with nothing to challenge him in Ireland, England, Jupiter, Mars of any other solar system this, or any other year, (the golden crop of 2013 all appear to be hurdlers, and EVEN IF they graduate to chases by 2014/15, Sacre will be 9 by then and EVEN more imposing) i'm almost resigned to defeat in the quest for him to reach a rating of 213 and topple the, in my opinion, grossly (please no rude messages) overrated "Himself", if he had a Denman, or a Kauto, or a Moscow rated in the 190's who he could routinely beat to a pulp, then, and ONLY then would we see his true worth, because the simple fact of the matter is, they have absolutely NO incentive to make him win by half the track, he can just have a gentle school, albeit in Grade One races, and keep racking up the victories, and leave the perpetual rating guesswork up to the handicappers, who, in all honestly, are just as in the dark as we are.


Timeform took the radical step of actually ALTERING previous ratings to accommodate the incomparable beast that is Frankel, so why not Sacre....?  


People forget, Sacre is ONLY 7, he won't even reach his peak (whatever than is) for a good 2-3 years, but sadly, the ACTUAL best of him, I doubt we'll EVER truly see....

Sprinter Sacre, the best horse of LAST year, the best horse of THIS year, the best horse of ANY year.......this Kings throne may NEVER be challenged.....LONG LIVE THE KING!!!!



Be Lucky!!!



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Monday 8 April 2013

It's Time, It's Time, IT'S JAGA TIME!!!!... (And The End Of The Flight Of The Hawk)

Well Bonjour 'n' all that jazz y'all......


Well just back from my leg-destroying 42,195 metre jaunt around Paris, just the odd 5 hours, 35 minutes and 1 second, "simples", now I both metaphorically AND physically "have the t-shirt", also appear to be REALLY in need all manner of baths/gels/beer etc, so will keep this short....but we don't have a bath, we've run out of gel, and already had a beer, i'll just wait for that Budvar to kick in I guess....


I was SPOT on saying Seabass and even more so ON HIS OWN (just farcically overrated) were "dogs" and should be laid to HIGH HEAVEN on the "fair" for a place, I hope you filled you boots, and in my opinion the best horses in the National finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, and if AP would have plumpted (if Jonjo would of allowed it, of course) for Teaforthree I truly believe he would have won, anyhow, National moanings at another date, oh, and Mr Handicapper, just bung Sacre up to 195p, there's a good lad, you KNOW deep down he's rated 200+, what more does he have to do, juggle whilst jumping fences, blindfolded, backwards, on one leg?!?!?!?....which, to be fair he probably could!!!



Just the one recommendation tomorrow, in the Southwell opener:  OPPOSING M Johnson 2 y/o debutants at Southwell has been very profitable for me in the past, but rather than laying Split Rock at around 11/10, i'll be backing the PERFECTLY DRAWN (stall 5, against the rail) Richard Fahey first-time-outer, JAGA TIME by that lovely nag, Compton Place, a real speedster and 5f/6f specialist and European Champion 3 y/o sprinter in the 90's for James Toller, who not only won over 5f on debut, but was only out of the first 2 once in it's open 8 runs, he has been the subject of favourable reports, and when his sire's report looks like this, 9/4 starts to look MIGHTY BIG indeed:

"COMPTON PLACE SIRE COMMENT: smart 2yo, later top-class sprinter, good record with sprint 2yos, some smart, progeny progress well"

I fully appreciate Johnson nag is by Shamardal, and is entitled to be classy, but that million quid making win machine (6 from 7 lifetime) won a French Derby over 1m 3f and was best on soft, 6f/7f and beyond, eeven from debut, so I reckon we've got him COOKED!!!!! I reckon Jaga Time can collar the obvious front running Fanning mount inside the distance and pull away, with maybe Claudia Octavia running on for the forecast spot, for a bit of fun, lay Split Rock at 1.06 (1/16)  for a place, laying a £320 bet would only cos you a score, but JAGA TIME at 9/4 (3.45 on the Fair atm) is the call, nay BELLOW!!!!


Before I forget, if you can get a sniff on the 12/1 "Revolutionary" for the Kentucky Derby on May 4th, please do, jockey/trainer Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher "simply cannot wait and are more excited than ever", and they've had so decent tools in the past, ew 1/5 1-2-3 most bookies, boots, fill etc etc....


AND...friend of the blog, the MIGHTY Elusive Hawk is going into battle once more tomorrow, dropping into a seller for the first time at 3pm, it's all  but a two horse race with our lad 9lb wrong at the weights, but  D Bates (5) reduces that to just 4, the hawk is 8/11, Hamoody 6/4, any price ya like the placepot busting duo of outsiders, he owes us nothing, but, at the prices, tomorrow I think i'll let my head rule my heart and call for a MAXIMUM bet on Hamoody, who is in cracking form himself, and as I said, 4lb well in and The Hawk has to defy YET ANOTHER career high mark....


Time for me and the missus to tuck into our "curry in a hurry", and they deliver all the way to our leafy humble abode, go figure.....


Don't forget to set your timepieces tomorrow, 'cos at the strike of 2pm. it will most definitely be..............JAGA TIME!!!!!!!!!! (and at 3pm The Hawk will fly no more......)



Be Lucky!!!


£££PlacePotter£££




Friday 5 April 2013

Get Up and Go Go GO!!!!!

This is most likely the last blog 'til early next week as my pasta filled insides are Paris bound via the Eurostar at ridiculous o'clock in the morning, here's hoping some lovely punter bungs the national on Youtube so me and the missus can watch it in the hotel room tomoz....


Today at Aintree was all about both cementing, and rebuilding reputations, MY Tent Or Yours looked simply awesome, sauntering home 16 lengths clear from his  147 rated stable-mate, Forgotten Voice, still only 6, and already rated 158, My Tent certainly can mix it next year with the golden age of new hurdlers.  It was a case of "this is what I can do on the right ground" for Dynaste, who disposed of  the opposition in a clinical manner, beating the non-staying, glass bridle nag Third Intention by half a dozen lengths.  As for Sacre, he was just at his AWESOME best, 5 months ago I hailed him better than Kauto and said he could win over 2m, 2m4f. 3m and in time the Gold Cup trip of 3m2f, to say I got *cough* "laughed at* would be an understatement, but it fills me with a warm dose of "I told you so" to see him DESTROY a race fit, 170 rated Cue Card with a disdain rarely seen in Grade 1 chases, he was never out of second gear, lord know just HOW MANY gears the Long Black Aeroplane has, but, alas, I guess we'll never know, I STILL maintain, as in earlier blog, he is the ULTIMATE King George horse, a flat, fast 3 miles would see him win by 40 lengths if the mood takes him, and he is a MASSIVE 4/1 with Paddy Power for the Boxing Day spectacular, which simply HAS TO BE THE BET OF THIS OR ANY OTHER CENTURY, if you can get non-runner, no bet, LUMP ON!!!

Just ask yourself, really, which of these nags below can get him off the bridle?..not "outstay" him,as they'll be SO FAR behind their stamina won't come into it, Sacre's an 5/4 shot AT BEST in my opinion:

Sprinter Sacre

4/1

 Simonsig

6/1

 Dynaste

6/1

 Silviniaco Conti

6/1

 Long Run

7/1

 Cue Card

 Sir Des Champs

 Benefficient

 The Giant Bolster

 Champion Court

 Captain Chris

 Captain Conan

  • Each Way Odds » 1/4 Places 1,2,3 
    My advised maximum each way punt at 28/1 Walkon fared well, when Alan Kings brave grey, HEAVILY gambled on course form 28/1 > 16/1 only just failed to peg back Triolo D'Alene, whilst trying to give him a stone, after the race Barry revealed he sweated down to 10-7 to ride this kid, a tip in itself, especially the race after Sacre's demolition job.  Lastly a special mention to Legacy Gold who maintain his unbeaten record in the concluding bumper with a taking performance, great things surly beckon over timber later in the year.

    My advised trixe on D McCains runner came off in a fashion, with the easiest winner of the day, Counsel BOLTING up by 40 lengths at 6/5, Master Red duly followed up at 5/4, only for Cool Mission to be pulled out at the 11th hour, but you'll still get 5/2 your money for the bet, so job done.

    At Leicester, my only horse advised for the MAXIMUM was Roger Varians beautifully bred newcomer, Azenzar, he played up like a Usain Bolt on Red Bull at the start, leading to a race comment of:

    "ran loose to start, went right start held up, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and ran on"
    The only dampener was, the his 5/2 S.P was throttled by a rule 4 of 30p/£ thanks to the withdrawal of the fav, who he would of SLAUGHTERED, making my lad an actual 7/4 shot, but ho-hum, beggers choosers and all that...... 


    As for tomorrow I have my national ante post book in fine fettle with:

    40/1 BIG FELLA THANKS (Trustworthy, accurate jumper)
    25/1 BALLABRIGGS (Red Rum in the making)
    16/1 SUNNYHILLBOY (Missed by an inch in 2012, and with AP deserting, will be value)
    11/1 CAPPA BLEU (New kid, stays forever, booking of Maloney a minus though)

    I truly believe it'll be a year of the old stager's, and the top three have cleared over 100 national fences in their respective careers without the slightest blip, yes yes, there may well be a young whipper-snapper on the up, but i'll take my chances on the old guard, oh and whilst we're on opinions, On His Own is an absolute DOG of a bet, I think 14/1 is too short, so you can only imagine what I think of the 6/1 be gobbled up by Ruby Walsh's, third, yes, THIRD choice ride, I couldn't back him with your money, he simply CANNOT stay in my opinion, and i'll be laying him for a place on the "fair" at 4.1 or lower.

    The ONLY nag i'm interested in tomorrow is the RED HOT D.McCains UP AND GO in the opener, kept SUPER fresh by side stepping many a temping festival pot, he looked simply sublime when trouncing Aaim To Prosper at Ascot by 6 (could have been 36!) lengths, I rate him in the high 150's, yet he is racing here off only 142, so, unless Dodging Bullets can reproduce his 158 run, this is here for the taking, expect him to be backed, and like Counsel today, make all, kick on off the bend and whistle clear, on my tissue it's:

    4/6 Up And Go
    7/2 Dodging Bullets
    7/1 Eduard


    But the industry prices are:
    2/1   Up And Go
    5/2   Dodging Bullets
    11/2 Eduard
    So, as you regular readers know, for me it's ALL ABOUT VALUE, even if that means 1/3 Sacre when he should be 1/7, so i'm positively chomping at the bit to get a nice, fat slice of that "bottle".
    The best of luck to one and all for their punting on the  National, and if you open an account, make it BetVictor as are going 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6,  and Paddy Power are going 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 with a FREE £20 bet for new account customers.


    So it's off to the land of nod I go, for my last nights sleep on good old English soil until Tuesday, just worked out, the Paris Marathon 2013 (or ANY marathon for that matter!) is equal to 5.822222 Grand Nationals, kinda regretting working that one out.......


    Cath y'all early next week, if the legs are still a'workin'......


    Be Lucky!!!



    £££PlacePotter£££


     


Thursday 4 April 2013

Up The Creek, With Rocky As My Paddle......

Well...

Short but sweet it must be, as early nights are the order of the day due to the minor detail of the odd 42.195km to jog around Paris on Sunday...

Quick note on today, I TRULY believe we saw the 2014 Champion Hurdler today in "The New One"....this remarkable 5 y/o, (yup, only a baby) was only outbattled close home by the tough as teak Zarkandar, and even TOUGHER R Walsh...BUT,  The New One was the quickest home over the last two flights at the festival of ANY of the hurdlers, quicker than Hurricane Fly, quicker than Quevega, quicker than Champagne Fever....so he has to be ridden for a turn of foot, and bearing in mind Zarkandar will be stepped up to 3m next season and our lad is an out and out 2 miler, I would LOVE to see Sammy T-D hold on to him for a bit longer, I WAS SCREEEEAMING at my screen..."not yet Sammy, NOT YET SAMMY!!!" ...hoping, praying, BEGGING he would attack at the last and do Zarkandar for toe, but he appeared to get stagefright and kicked on 2 out, giving 'kandar PER-LENTY of time to eyeball the youngster, and ultimately grind out the win.

The New One is 6/1 2nd fav with Paddy Power, and if you don't mind waiting 11 months for a return on your investment, there are FAR worse ante post wagers..oh, and have your LIFE SAVINGS on Sacre at a quite BARMY 4/7 to repeat his Champion Chase romp, with Simonsig and Flemenstar his closest market rivals, both not likely to take him on...


So, back to tomorrows card, I needed a wheelbarrow after my Festival nap At Fishers Cross did the biz, but 5/4 tomorrow, albeit the right price form wise, does come with a scathing AP assesment, "he needs the mud"...tomorrow is looking good/soft at best, you place your bet, you takes your chances, I personally think class will out, and he can defeat a gallant Road To Riches by a few lengths.

The NAP on the card is in the 230pm, Rocky Creek, he was pulled out of the festival and with be cherry ripe for this, Paul Nicholls has always thought a lot of him, and today is his gold cup, his day of reckoning, to silence the doubters, in my opinion he only really has the latest in a seemingly LONG LINE of Pipe "hype horses" to beat, the now perpetually layable Dynaste, who is rated 157, and yet the Pipe stable STILL continue to yo-yo him up and down in trip, Rocky Creek all the way.

I won't waste my breath elaborating, but those who read my blog regularly know my opinion of the Long Black Aeroplane, let me just say:


*****SPRINTER SACRE WILL DESTROY CUE CARD AND FLEMENSTAR, END OF*****


I quick mention in the 450pm to the unbeaten Broadway Buffalo who has looked AWESOME in his 5 wins, and can notch up number 6 at the expense of Cotton Mill and Minella Fortress.  In the 340pm Walkon is a horse I have been following for a few years now, he looked above average in a couple of runs at Prestbury Park in November/December finishing runner up to decent tools, Unioniste and Al Ferof, he fluffed his lines back there the last twice, but has always been held in high regard by Alan King, and a return to previous form would make a MOCKERY of his 28/1 quote.

Lastly, it takes a very special horse to win FOUR bumpers, but I believe Molly's A Diva is just that, easily winning  it's opening two races, it then proceeded to scoot home in a listed event (beating the re-opposing Carole's Spirit) in taking fashion, priced up at 6/1, that could look mighty TASTY indeed at the 2 pole when Nick Schofield is hard on the steel preparing to produce his race winning, sweeping run down the outside.

Donald McCain appears to have a treble on his hands away from the madness at Sedgefield with:

210pm COUNSEL
430pm MASTER RED
535pm COOL MISSION

Bung 'em in a fiver trixie, one goes down ya cover your bet, if they all go in, as well they should, payout around £130.

Only nag to note at Leicester is Roger Varians impeccably bread newcomer, AZENZAR in the 440pm, I FULLY expect him to turn over the more fancied Azelle from the Hannon yard, but as always in these trappy early season guessing games, the market will be the best guide.


Well, time to attempt to get my Aintree placepot perm down to something smaller than infinity, then it REALLY must be time to hit the hay.....


So i'm up the Creek with Rocky as my paddle, and have NO intentions of At Fishers making me Cross, looking forward to tomorrow already......




Be Lucky!!!


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Wednesday 3 April 2013

Bowl-ed Over With This Roque Solid Bet.....

"Punters graveyard" is a much lorded term in racing mostly made up of lot's of neatly lined up facts to fit the cause ie: "No horse has EVER won this race off more than 11-9, going left handed, on a Tuesday, with a fictional cartoon character riding him side saddle" ...then low and behold a 11-12 Spiderman pops up, arse firmly to the left of the saddle, cruising to the line on a sunny Tuesday afternoon...then we ALL look for the next reason a horse simply cannot win......


Case and point is the Aintree Grand National Festival, which is STILL mentally close, timewise,  to the ACTUAL festival at Prestbury Park, anyone worth their racing/form salt knows that it's the graveyard of many a reputation, some blame it on the proximity to the Cheltnham affair, others the ground, others the undulations of the course, i'm a STRONG believer in the former.

Many so called "good things" have come here on the crest of a championship race winning wave from the festival, only to be bitch slapped by fresher, inferior opposition, mote noteably in recent times Denman, Kauto and my personal favourite when Istabraq (I told ALL WITH EARS he'd get turned over) got well and truly done over by that M Pipe machine, Pridwell.

So, in the Betfair Bowl, I simply COULD NOT BACK Silviniarco Conti with your money at 10/11.  With a field of more than 8 looking assured it's each way heaven, and with all but two of the runners slogging their guts out at Cheltnham a couple of weeks back, it makes my selection all the easier.  Quito De La Roque is the animal in question, not seen since coasting home in the Matty Ryan at Thurles on Heavy ground in Mid January, he has been put away for this by his canny trainer Colm Murphy whilst others have been involved in brutal festival contests.  I see the race like this, The Giant Bolster is an admirable, but ultimately slow plodder, First Lietenant is stepping up in trip AGAIN, he has NEVER won beyond 2m5f and got a good going over by Cue Card in the Ryanair latest, Cape Tribulation simply is punching above it's weight, Menorah doesn't know if it's a hurdler of a chaser (pulled up latest), Wayward Prince and Whodoyouthink are making up the numbers, that leaves us with just my lad and Silviniarco Conti.

Conti has improved, no denying that, but to put it in the most simplistic terms NH racing is about one thing and one thing only, JUMPING!!!! and He fluffed his lines at his biggest test, before that he beat plodder Bolster 7 lengths at Newbury and previously a non race fit Long Run at Haydock to earn his, quite frankly inflated figure of 175, i'm sick to the back teeth of people telling me "if he would of stood up, he would of won the Gold Cup", but if, indeed my lovely Auntie Betty had a shiny set of bollocks, she would indeed, be my uncle......


The facts are this, Conti could race away with this, but my lad is a solid 160 performer, loves testing ground, and has half a dozen 3m+ victories on his record, and has never, EVER fallen, all this coupled with the fact he is the ONLY runner in the field  (except the rags) lining up fresh and race fit, all this being said, the following does begin to look a tiny bit, well, CUCKOO!!!!!


10/11 Silviniarco Conti
10/1   Quito De La Roque


I seriously think you simply CANNOT knock my lad out of the frame with a mallet, EVEN IF Conti turns up and does his best Arkle impression, we still have 2 places to play for, which makes my lad a 1/2 shot to be 2nd or 3rd i'd MUCH rather that than sweat on the fact that everytime Conti takes off at a fencem there is a chance he may not have Ruby on his back on t'other side!!!


As for the Aintree Hurdle, I will say this, if you would have told me a couple of months back I could have Back Oscar Whisky to win his third in a row at a tasty 7/1 (even each way at that price) I would of asked for the name of your narcotics dealer, but that is now reality, ignore his pulled up at the festival, and furthermore ignore Barry desserting him, and he becomes the most AMAZING value seen in a race since Frankel went off at 7/4 on debut (yes, I was on) and have a lil' ew double with the Roque.


Well Paris Mrathon Sunday, so best eat some more chicken, can't be falling over like Silviniarco Conti now, can we......


Be Lucky!!!



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Tuesday 2 April 2013

Studying the Form, now THAT'S a Gamble....

So it all looked SOOO perfect, all was going both to plan and like cloclwork, Shoda was 20/1 in a place this morning, gradually shortened during the day, got SMASHED (as predicted) on course, and went off the 11/2 joint 2nd fav a MAJOR punt was on the cards, as yours truly was in for a good ol' chunk e/w...happy days indeed.  Even the RacingUK presenters were start to lord it about the Barney Curley connection (that NODODY seemed to mention when he was 14's) and generally wax lyrical about the nags chances, and has basically called him first past the post before even a single hoof was planted in anger......

And then they were off!!!....Maloney (for once!) had the lad nicely settled in midfield, creeping into contention on the rail on the good ground, when at the 4th, yes, only the bloody FORTH, he dropped to the rear, then proceeded to tail off, in such a manner that he looked guarenteed to be pulled up, but just reading the result back, for some god forsaken reason he finished, beaten just the odd HUNDRED LENGTHS!!!!...Which technically rates him around 33 (159 behind Spriner Sacre) on this performance as the winner was rated 103, if you go by the "1 length = 3 pounds" theory.

I can only assume Mr P Maloney wanted to have a trot rather thaan a walk back to the stable, and have a "0" and not a dreaded "P" next to the nags name.  Now, let's get one thing straight, I know not whether this indeed was a true gamble, or just a case of mug money following mug money following mug money, but ALL the aforementioned facts/detailed can be found in yesterdays blog post (Shouda, Wouda, Couda) and I stand by ALL of them wholeheartedly, BUT knowing the the connections, albeit loosely to this nag via Mr Curley I would not take this performance on face value one little bit, but i'd love love LOVE and "off the record" chat with Maloney to see the whites of his eyes......


So that would appear to be that, tipped up, gambled on horse from a gambling stable, has the money down and flops, that's it right....?.......WRONG!!!!!!


Shouda is all entered up at Wetherby tomorrow where he is short as 8/1 fifth choice out of the 10 runners, just how is this even possible?!?!?!?!

And ask yourself this, if your horse ahs just been STUFFED OUT OF SIGHT, why would you run him the next day, at a course nearly THREE HUNDRED MILES AWAY to the north?!?!?!?...I should mention, the trainers stable is less than half that distance away, and on the same bloody route!!!!...SURLY you should just take the dobbin home today, tuck him up in his stable, and not let him out again, EVER!!!!....UNLESS, there is a *couch-cough* "touch" going on and today was indeed the reddest of herrings......

Today has indeed left a bitter, bitter taste in my mouth, be if Shouda wins tomorrow it'll be like drinking a cocktail of baby vomit and tarmac blended with camel balls in a nice salty shake......I simply CANNOT, as a form reader back him tomorrow, but I wouldn't put you off, he could win by half the track, or, as quite brilliantly demonstrated today, lose by pretty much the same...


Quick footnote, my fave horse in all weather training "Elusive Hawk" won for me AGAIN (6/4 > 8/13) today, and think he deserves a bit of a break, and would look out for him in a lil' turf handicap in May/June..

I started today think Shouda should be rated over 100, so 87 looked tasty, and end the day thinking 50 looks generous, just wait until 250pm tomorrow, (he should be tailed off by then) and i'm sure i'll have another opinion all neatly boxed up and ready, so once again The Hawk proved anything but Elusive, and as for the other nag, well, he Shouda stayed at home......



Be Lucky!!!


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Monday 1 April 2013

Shouda...Woulda....Coulda....

Well it's the day after the day before in the PlacePotter household, my good lady is out mucking out the horse, and i'm busy both roasting and coating some lovely cashews with chilli and salt, how the other half live eh?......


Kept the financial interests rather low key today with a couple of meaty Lucky 15's, and in true frustrating style had Five Rivers (7/2) and Minella Special (5/1) on one of them and Sleep At First (4/1) and Mootabar (7/2) on t'other, nevermind, nice pick up either way.

I couldn't really get into tomorrows action with any modicum of excitement, UNTIL I began to scroll down the Exeter card to discover a horse I know only too well....The ex-Barney Curley owned/trained enigmatic performer, SHOUDA!!!!

First and foremost, glancing at the race, I appear, once again to be in "RAVING LOONY" territory, BUT.......a quick eye on the betting forecast has the 7 y/o bay gelding the 20/1 10th choice of 11, a quick flick to BET365 has him as 7/1 co 3rd fav, so for me, the alarm bells aren't just ringing, they are bloody playing the NATIONAL ANTHEM!!!!!!

For those of you who don't know Mr B Curley, he was/is one of, if not THE most shrewd, wiley, clever punters the sport of kings has EVER seen, these three ditty's should save me a bit of time:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Sam_betting_coup

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/barney-curley-gamble-on-curley-trio-foiled-as-last-leg-flops/714570/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/may/26/barney-curley



Shouda is trained by Sophie Leech, a small trainer based in Westbury-On-Severn, Gloucestershire,
who, after what appears to have been a bleak few seasons, is starting to REALLY find her feet with a clutch of wins and places since the turn of the new year.  Shouda runs in the colours of her husband, Chris Leech, and they have a familiar "J.P McManus" look about them, but I guess that's where the similarities end.

The nag was all entered up with another Leech owned/trained horse by the name of Nicene Creed (due to be apprentice ridden) at Chepstow a couple of Thursdays back, where he was due to be ridden by regular Leech "go to"  jockey, Mr P Maloney, but the tale gets a lil' bit complex, Nicene Creed gets SMASHED into 7/2  from 8/1, and Shouda drifts like the proverbial barge, then, there is, surprise surprise an 11th hour withdrawl/jockey change....you've guessed it, Shouda pulled out, and Maloney switches to the HEAVILY backed Nicene Creed, who duly (under one of the most forceful rides i've EVER seen) gets up by the odd length to land the gamble.  So when I saw him going Tuesday, after 3 quite bizarre runs (it's not often you see both "held up in rear" AND "tailed off" in the same race comments) to qualify for a handicap rating of a VERY lowly 87, I thought i'd dig a little deeper.....

He indeed has the highest flat rating of 62 of all of these who indeed ran on the flat, there are only 2 or 3, which means he should have the necessary turn of foot if close enough for his ploddy, quite frankly slow opponents, and in his mish-mashed flat career for Mr B Curley, he had 3 successes (2 turf, 1 AW) and EACH TIME the money was well and truly down, (7/2, 13/8, Evens).  He got beat, nay SLAUGHTERED a grand total of TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE LENGTHS in his 3 hurdle races all shoehorned in to a 10 week spell on unsuitable ground over the turn of the year.  So, let me ask you, putting opinions aside, on all known form this lad has NOOOO CHAAAANCE, zero, he's just SOOO bad....but if that is indeed the case, if, like the original betting forecast suggested he is the second worst in the race, why oh why oh WHY is he 13/2 and shortening?!?!?!?!

The bookies simply cannot get a handle on the tissue of this contest, going 4/1 the field, which usually means, the nanosecond ANYTHING is back with what they consider "clever money" (I own such currency) it will shorten up quicker than a a nail getting hammered into a knackered Futon!!!!

It looks to have been laid out for this, not JUST laid out, but laid out nice and flat, on a bed of almond scented rose petals with a side of lavender.....

I will be going HEAVY each way on the lad as I can't see him out the 3, sticking both Gizzet and Mr Bingley in a CFC & CTC with him and ALSO popping the stables other runner (River D'or 310 Exeter) in an E/W double, just off the off chance Mr Curley is about!!!

So that's it really, of course, it could run like a drain, run no sort of race, but I think, IF he lines up, as the tape goes up you'll know the fate of your cash quite early on as I reckon he will not, reapeat NOT be anchored in last by Maloney, but placed handy, or, with so many gambles (IF indeed this is a gamble) sent to the front in a catch-me-if-you-can-let's-see-how-good-he-is-when-we-release-the-handbrake kind of way....


On a TOTALLY seperate note, those who have been with me since the start (I tip my cap to y'all) know my perpetual affection for a certain Elusive Hawk, and he's going tomorrow to complete what would have been a four-timer if that pesky loose horse wouldn't have scuppered his chances 2 races back, and, although racing off 79, Fitzy keeps the ride so technically only off 72, which is still a pound or two higher than he has ever won off, but he is in RUDE health, and the 11/8 at BetVictor looks mighty fine, he has ALL the field cooked, the only thorn in his side could be Mata Hari Blue coming back from nine month absence, a winner over C&D, but only off 54, so i'm not that worried.....


Time to check those cashews and plan my three-pronged Grand National assault, and count the hours until the MIGHTY hawk wins again, he will, won't he?...oh, he Shouda....


Be Lucky!!!


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