So,
Here we are again, 2000 Guineas day, with reputations aplenty, form in the book and enough talking up of PAINFULLY mediocre nags to last us a lifetime, all that being said, it looks on paper to be an absolute CRACKERJACK of a contest....
Few things make my usually calm blood BOIL the the point of erupting than the ol' "this nag is quite possibly the BEST i've EVER trained" gang, who BLEAT on and on and ON AND ON until it gets beat, then the P.R train/excuse crew kick into overdrive, that's why I have perpetual respect for Geraghty, who thought long, and hard, along with Nicky Henderson, if Sacre, was indeed the best either had EVER had the fortune to be associated with, Nicky 'cos of the AWESOME fire-power he has now and has had previously, and Bazza quite simply because of the quite brilliant Moscow Flyer who was around in the golden age of 2 mile chasers, if Sacre had them lot to run against/routinely defeat I have NO DOUBTS he'd be rated 215p before his 9th birthday, but that's one for another day......
So when I see the Post this morning with R Hughes plaster all over the front page stating:
"This is the best horse i've sat on and I think he'll win"
Not the tip laced with a huge amount of incite you'll ever get, of what is, on paper, a 2 horse pantomime, but he's more than entitled to his opinion, but that's where my problem lies, has he SUCH a short memory to forget:
HARBOUR WATCH: (2011)
"I think he could be a superstar, and is quite possibley the best i've sat on"
Races 3 times then never raced again.
CANFORD CLIFFS: (2009-2011)
"An absolute star, he kills his opponents with his turn of foot, the best i've EVER ridden"
Yeah, until he met Frankel and got DEMOLISHED by a cosy 5 lenghs, the excuses POURED out after, but here are the facts:
Ratings:
127 Canford Cliffs
147 Frankel
So if the nags he keeps referring to are rated less than an average derby winner as "the best he's ever ridden" he could easily keep repeating this year after year, after BLOODY year.
(For the record, Canford Cliffs would MURDER Harbour Watch AND Toronado in a race, *simples*)
In todays 2000 Guineas you have to, from a rational punting point of view side with physical recent form, if so you are ALL OVER Toronado at 2/1, with his rating climbing from 114 at the end of last season, to a not to lofty 121 now after his Craven victory.....
OR....
If you're like me, a figures man, you just CANNOT and WILL NOT hear of defeat for the MIGHTY Dawn Approach, already a MULTIPLE Group winner including a pair at the highest level in the Dewhurst and the National Stakes, with a nice lil' Group 2 Coventry Stakes in there just for good measure, compare this to Toronado's 2 small field Group2/3 wins and you can see why my pulse is starting the beat that little bit faster. Dawn Approach ended last season as the top rated Juvenile in Europe on 124, so he is STILL rated above Toronado, even without the so called "advantage" of a recent run, but be sure as eggs is eggs he will be trained to the NANOSECOND by J S Bolger to be FIRING on his 2013 debut.
The facts are there for all to see, Dawn Approach is rated higher, was rated a FULL 7lb higher at the end of last season, is a DUEL Group 1 winner, has been fav for the 2000 Guineas since, well, the beginning of time, is entered up SOLELY in 1m races for it's next 3 outings, whereas Toranado is stepping up in trip almost straight after, making Dawn Approach a MUCH more attractive Guineas proposition, and notwithstanding ANY of this, Godolphin purchased him, and decided against purchasing EITHER Olympic Glory OR Toronado, and that Sheik aint usually far off the mark. So the following pricing up of the market leaves me SO CONFUSED my head hurts, firstly, my tissue:
4/6 Dawn Approach
7/2 Toronado
The ACTUAL Prices:
7/4 Dawn Approach
2/1 Toronado
So, all this being said, if Dawn Approach has improved 7lb-10lb over the winter from 2-3 as he is more than entitled to do, and strengthened up a bit, I see the race going like this, not much happens until the 2 pole where Toronado is cruising, hits the 1 pole, then he lengthens and kicks on with a devastating turn of foot to put clear daylight between himself and the rest of the field, EXCEPT Dawn Approach, who will be on his quarters and gallop right by. Toronado could well be stuck with the Excelebration mark of being AWESOME but having Frankel in his way EVERY BLOODY TIME, but hey, at least it'll be good for racing, and if all goes to pot for Hughes, and Toronado just isn't up to it, he should have PER-LENTY of time to conjure up an excuse whilst he strolls around Hannon's yard looking at the early season 2 year olds thinking to himself:
"Hmmmmm, which one of you lil' beauties shall I pick out to be my new next BIG thing for NEXT years Guineas?!?!?!?"
I can categorically say, that the BEST thing Richard Hughes has EVER sat on, and he does it with CONSUMMATE ease, is that old chestnut, THE FENCE!!!!
Be Lucky!!!
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