Well well well.....
Just when we thought The Long Black Aeroplane would have a nice, easy end to the season...BOOM!!!!..up pops the most quietly spoken of racing families, the Tizzards, to throw down the gauntlet with their stable star, Cue Card.
The simple fact of the matter is, he has NO CHANCE, zero, not a hope, diddly squat....or does he????
On the face of it he faces an ALMIGHTY struggle against one of, if not potentially THE greatest steeplechaser of modern times, there is no doubting Cue Card's ability, and it was an obvious masterstroke, if there is such a thing, to run him in the Ryanair at the festival where he duly bolted up, being not quite quick enough for a Queen Mum (well, not with Sprinter in the field) and not quite staying over the absolute flatest of 3m chases in the King George, it appears 2m4f appears to be his optimum distance.
I do fear that he with fall into the dreaded "Oscar Whisky" category of being an inbetweener who will dominate a slighty pointless, nothing type distance of 2m4f.....in the 2012 festival, in the Arkle, Sacre was rated 169, a full STONE higher that Cue Card, who he duly MURDERED over 2m by 7 lengths, in this years festival, Cue Card won the Ryanair over 2m4f and earned a rating of 167, impressive, but STILL 2lbs lower than his Arkle conquerer the previous year, meanwhile Sacre was tanking away from Sizing Europe (172) by NINETEEN LENGTHS to win unextended and earned a rating of 192p, the "p" is a polite indication of the hanicapper say, "well blow me, I have NO IDEA how good this animal is"....
It's a simple equation when you break it down...over 2 miles, Sacre is rated 23lbs ahead of Cue Card, which would equate to about a 20-25 length demolishion if they met over that distance, but they are meeting next friday, at Aintree, in the Mumm Melling Chase, which is over 2m4f, the Ryanair distance, this is the lone straw punters are clinging on to, but the fact remains, Sacre has NEVER been off the bridle, so I simply cannot see him finding the distance any problem whatsoever, it may even be a case of he will prove to be even MORE devestating over further, like Frankel proved when stepped up to 1m2f, it was just more time for the horse to decide how far he would like to win by this time.....
If I was pricing up a fictional 2 horse race between Sacre and Cue Card over the two distances I would see it like this:
2m
1/7 Sprinter Sacre
9/2 Cue Card
2m4f
1/5 Sprinter Sacre
7/2 Cue Card
There would be a touch more "value" relatively speaking in the longer contest due to the mildest of unkowns regarding the trip, but I think a 20% return on you investment for around 5 minutes work is quite good business!!!
If I owned Sacre, I would destroy Cue Card at Aintree, silence the doubters (you know the ones, straight jacket, buckles etc) then politely dominate the 2m division and get his rating over 200, then take in, wait for it...THE BLOODY KING GEORGE!!! No, really, non-stayers in the Gold Cup (One Man) win this, Gold Cup winners win this (Kauto Star, Long Run, Dessie) but I seriously believe, nay am CONVINCED he would simply be hacking along and they wouldn't touch him, then and ONLY then could the CRAZY "could he win a Gold Cup" arguements start, seem impossible? I agree it does appear do, but Sacre is ONLY 7, and will both grow and strenghen up, and won't be at his absolute peak for at least a year or two, scary, isn't it....
I remember when this pure speed horse came over from France in 2005, and ran in the Queen Mum in 2006 at the festival, due to his "Amazing Cruising Speed" and went off even money, he fell, leaving the race to Newmill, people questioned if he would ever get higher than his rating of 167, the horse in question was Kauto Star.....Sacre for the King George? not so funny now, is it.......
Be Lucky!!!
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