Thinger Licht-ing Good.....

Some days are just made for NH racing, and today is such an occasion, arisen from my peaceful sleep at 8am, a trip to the lovely Towcester (BEST view in NH racing, bar NONE!!!) only a few short hours away, and with the proceeds of LEVITATES "obvious" (well, obvious for me, anyway, check the Lincoln blog) stunning, gritty win in my sky rocket, today, I firmly believe, will be a good day.....


As for the card at Towcester, it's a bit of a mish-mash of short priced favs, unknown quantities, and confusing ground.  The ground is officially described as "Soft", but as the temp reaches the magical 4 degrees (the temp where the frost really begins to thaw) I fear, by race 3, it will be somewhat of a heavy bog, so I am approaching today's punting with a familiar pattern:

1. Take on, or row in with the favs (I will be taking almost all of them on)
2. C&D form, will prove invaluable in aforementioned ground
3. Potential improvers/unknown quantities at a value price

The two bets, for me, that stick out like Steak Tartare at a veggie wedding are:


210pm THINGER LICHT (adv 6/4)

At the tender age of 4, ALREADY a winner over both hurdles AND fences is France, in soft/heavy ground, and has a rating of 128, will relish this trip, lesser company (was in a £150,000 race at Auteil when last seen, didn't show up too well, but the mere reason he was entered speaks VOLUMES for his chances in a £3k egg 'n' Spoon race at Towcester) and the feather weight, thanks to Josh Hamer (7) he will only be carrying 10-6, so he is getting 8lbs from both "Tracking Times" (7/1) and "Celtic Abbey" (4/1) the only two conceivable dangers.  A glance a the form shows you that Celtic Abbey got SLAMMED over 14 lengths by Ptit Zig (126) giving him 9lbs, and Thinger Lichct is a better horse that Ptit Zig, as for Tracking Times, the case is EVEN WORSE, he got MURDERED by Shernando (125), albeit giving 14lbs, by a whopping 25 lengths, and again Shernando, isn't rated as high as Thinger Licht, and this is even before you start factoring in the "potential" aspect.  How many times have we seen these young whipper-snapper nags pop over from the land of frogs legs, snails and punctual trains, only to absolutely HOSE up on their debut?....I believe this is a good, nay a GREAT thing, I quick working out of the form/ratings if to be taking literally, leads to Thinger Licht being upwards of 20lbs (a GOOD few lengths) well in, so at anything evens or bigger I will be row-row-rowing in with MAXIMUM confidence.

445pm WHAT OF IT (adv 5/2)

This one is a bit more simplistic, hunter chase form can be sporadic, to say the least, but this races just looks ALL WRONG, or ALL RIGHT if you fancy my chap.

What of it is rated 108, the likely fav is the top horse, Start Royal (2/1), rated 107, Start Royal is carrying 12-2, and What Of It, with Mr T D Ward claiming the (7) is only carrying 11-5, so that's a better rated horse, bottom weight, on gloopy ground, getting a FULL 9lbs from the fav at the top......When you look at the form, What Of It has indeed only won once in it's career, barely holding on over 2m4f, AND he has gone off fav or 2nd fav in 10 of his 16 races, but, and I mean BUT.....this is a nag who loves to race up with the pace, and over this 3f shorter trip he will simply have TOO MUCH SPEED for his ploddy market rival, who, in tern has been running, albit with credit over marathon distances of 3m/3m2f+.  The last time Start Royal ran over anything like this sort of distance was 2 back-to-back races in 2008, when he got SLAUGHTERED a combined total of FIFTY LENGTHS and only beat a handful of opponents home, with comments like "held up in rear, never nearer, tailed off" and not once but TWICE he has been off for 2 YEARS with setbacks, so, with this being, the following market make up, in my opinion, looks FARCICAL, and I wouldn't be a single iota suprised if they "flip-flopped" and our lad went off 7/4 jolly:

2/1 Start Royal
5/2 What Of It
4/1 Bar


TOWCESTER SELECTIONS:

210: THINGER LICHT (NAP)
240: THORNCLIFFER
310: VALRENE
340: TOP BENEFIT
410: COUNT GUIDO DEIRO
445: WHAT OF IT (N.B)
515: NO BET (JEAN DE FLORETTE, INITIAL TIP, RAN 535pm HAYDOCK YESTERDAY)


So, with a heady feeling of knowledge, happiness and perpetual optimism, we will be leaving soon to the course of the £7,500,000 revamp, quietly confident that these two, low weighted horses have today marked on their calendars to do the business, the double pays over 7/1, that's simply gotta be worth a few quid, you may well be kicking yourself if you don't, just use some of your winnings from my advised punt on LEVITATE yesterday at a tasty 33/1...oh, you didn't back him?....strange, usually, when someone offers you free money, it's considered correct etiquette to accept......



Be Lucky!!!


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