The Point Of Value.......

So, here's the thing.......


I have been a worshipper of the "Sport of Kings" for over two decades, and ever since "The Sign" won the"Winalot National Stakes" one cool evening at Sandown in late May 1994 under a thrusting Pat Eddery, I guess you could argue i've been, in one way or t'other, kinda hooked.  I can't concisely explain it, neither will I try to, it's just a feeling, a sensation, a buzz, a way of life, pitting your wits against the bookie in the eternal hope you stroll out of their premises one day a bit slower than normal, sweat pouring from your brow due to the wheelbarrow you're pushing.....

But alas, this ISN'T a movie, and i'm most certainly NOT Billy bloody Elliot, the simple fact of the matter is we ALL lose in the end, as do I, just a smidge slower than most.  You see, i'm a believer (no singing at the back) a student of the game who deals with the "this should" not the "what if's"...I will let a GAZILLION 6/4 favourites pass me by because, in my opinion they simply don't represent value for the chance, that one glorious chance a nice juicy 8/1 shot romps in by half the track (take a bow Solwhit) making all the hard work worthwhile.

There is a key word here, it's VALUE, NOT price, but V-A-L-U-E!!!!!!!...let me explain......

Case 1:

Oscar Whisky

Never quite quick enough over 2 mile to be a true champion hurdle contender (would have won it in a bad year) but his rating in the 160's is purely down to his quite unique dominance of the 2m4f races at which he is almost unbeatable, so, only ever raced once over 3 miles, and looked not to bad getting done a head to Reve De Sivola, so he took his chance in the World Hurdle, where, the rain LASHED down onto already soft ground making it a true slog, Oscar Whisky barely appeared to stay in good ground, so to my surprise/horrorhe was duly backed of f the boards, 4/1 > 9/4 at the off, he would have been NO value at 10/1, so at 9/4 he was the LAY OF THE CENTURY, and duly got pulled up the the mud, the race was won by Solwhit, rated almost a full stone lower....this is NOT VALUE!!!

Case 2:

The New One

Always the apple of Nigel Twiston-Davie's eye, The New One rocked up the Prestbury Park in January with a single defeat to his name, a 6th in the Champion Bumper in 2012, with a lofty reputation, and only went down by the narrowest of margins to At Fishers Cross under an inspired A.P McCoy, many, including myself had him down as the moral winner, so when the festival came about and he was on offer at 9/2, I nearly chocked, the Irish "Wonder Horse" (yes, yes, they have one EVERY BLOODY YEAR!!) Pont Alexandre, made the market for him off a mark of 154, The New One was rated 152, upwards of 3lb clear of the remainder, the Irish Handicappers have sometimes been guilty of overrating there horses, and this was such a case, sent off the most heavily backed of 6/4 favourites, Pont Alexandre ran well, but simply had NO answer the The New One's burst from the last, storming 4 lengths clear of Rule The World at the line, the Wonder Horse in third, The New One is the best NGT has ever trained in his opinion, and he's had a few good ones, backed from 9/2 > 5/2 and was STILL mega value at that price, he is to be aimed at he Champion Hurdle next year, and around 6/1, you couldn't knock him out of the frame with a mallet!!!!



So, that's an outline of how my head kinda works with things like this, don't get me wrong, I misjudge PLENTY, but am always looking for a calculated reason, the next instalment I will be tackling the can of worms that is Sprinter Sacre's rating apres Queen Mother Champion Chase, and believe me, you simply DON'T wanna miss that!!!!


Be Lucky


£££PlacePotter£££